A point prediction method based automatic machine learning for day-ahead power output of multi-region photovoltaic plants

Solar power generation (SPG) is essentially dependent on spatial and meteorological characteristics which makes the planning and operation of power systems difficult. To promote the integration of solar power into electric power grid, accurate prediction of geographically distributed SPG is needed....

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Veröffentlicht in:Energy Jg. 223; S. 120026
Hauptverfasser: Zhao, Wei, Zhang, Haoran, Zheng, Jianqin, Dai, Yuanhao, Huang, Liqiao, Shang, Wenlong, Liang, Yongtu
Format: Journal Article
Sprache:Englisch
Veröffentlicht: Oxford Elsevier Ltd 15.05.2021
Elsevier BV
Schlagworte:
algorithms
Automatic machine learning
Electric power
Electric power distribution
Electric power generation
Electric power grids
Electric power systems
Electricity distribution
energy
Genetic algorithm
Genetic algorithms
Geographical distribution
Japan
Learning algorithms
Machine learning
Multi-region photovoltaic plants
Photovoltaic cells
Photovoltaics
power generation
Power plants
prediction
Prediction models
solar collectors
Solar energy
Solar power
Solar power generation
Solar power generation prediction
Weather
Solar power generation prediction
Automatic machine learning
Multi-region photovoltaic plants
Genetic algorithm
ISSN:0360-5442, 1873-6785
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Zusammenfassung:Solar power generation (SPG) is essentially dependent on spatial and meteorological characteristics which makes the planning and operation of power systems difficult. To promote the integration of solar power into electric power grid, accurate prediction of geographically distributed SPG is needed. In this paper, we present a combined method for day-ahead SPG prediction of multi-region photovoltaic (PV) plants. First, automatic machine learning (AML) is applied to generate the most suitable ensemble prediction model with optimal parameters and then an improved genetic algorithm (GA) is implemented which processes the candidate features by assigning appropriate operators. To achieve more accurate forecast results as well as mine the interpretable relationship between SPG and related weather or PV system factors, the SPG physical model is taken into account. The method performance is evaluated by the real SPG data along with meteorological variables of multi-region PV plants in Hokkaido from 2016 to 2018. Results indicate that the combined method provides acceptable accuracy and outperforms several baselines and other methods used for comparison. •AML is introduced to establish the optimal combination of different forecast models.•The raw data of multi-region PV plants are reconstructed through suitable operators.•SPG mechanism model is applied to generate suitable candidate operators.•GA algorithm is developed to identify optimal operator set for different PV plant.
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ISSN:0360-5442
1873-6785
DOI:10.1016/j.energy.2021.120026