Traffic simulation based ship collision probability modeling

Maritime traffic poses various risks in terms of human, environmental and economic loss. In a risk analysis of ship collisions, it is important to get a reasonable estimate for the probability of such accidents and the consequences they lead to. In this paper, a method is proposed to assess the prob...

Celý popis

Uloženo v:
Podrobná bibliografie
Vydáno v:Reliability engineering & system safety Ročník 96; číslo 1; s. 91 - 107
Hlavní autoři: Goerlandt, Floris, Kujala, Pentti
Médium: Journal Article
Jazyk:angličtina
Vydáno: Oxford Elsevier Ltd 2011
Elsevier
Témata:
Accidents
AIS data
Applied sciences
Collision probability
Computer simulation
Exact sciences and technology
Ground, air and sea transportation, marine construction
Gulf of Finland
Marine and water way transportation and traffic
Maritime traffic safety
Maritime traffic simulation
Mathematical models
Monte Carlo methods
Operational research and scientific management
Operational research. Management science
Risk theory. Actuarial science
Ships
Traffic engineering
Traffic flow
Vessels
Canada, Maritime Prov
ANE, Baltic Sea, Finland Gulf
AIS data
Maritime traffic simulation
Maritime traffic safety
Gulf of Finland
Collision probability
Sea navigation
Monte Carlo method
Probabilistic approach
Collision
Risk analysis
Economic sciences
Modeling
Time domain method
Accident
Register
Traffic safety
Sea traffic
System identification
Ship
Localization
Collision avoidance
ISSN:0951-8320, 1879-0836
On-line přístup:Získat plný text
Tagy: Přidat tag
Žádné tagy, Buďte první, kdo vytvoří štítek k tomuto záznamu!
Popis
Shrnutí:Maritime traffic poses various risks in terms of human, environmental and economic loss. In a risk analysis of ship collisions, it is important to get a reasonable estimate for the probability of such accidents and the consequences they lead to. In this paper, a method is proposed to assess the probability of vessels colliding with each other. The method is capable of determining the expected number of accidents, the locations where and the time when they are most likely to occur, while providing input for models concerned with the expected consequences. At the basis of the collision detection algorithm lays an extensive time domain micro-simulation of vessel traffic in the given area. The Monte Carlo simulation technique is applied to obtain a meaningful prediction of the relevant factors of the collision events. Data obtained through the Automatic Identification System is analyzed in detail to obtain realistic input data for the traffic simulation: traffic routes, the number of vessels on each route, the ship departure times, main dimensions and sailing speed. The results obtained by the proposed method for the studied case of the Gulf of Finland are presented, showing reasonable agreement with registered accident and near-miss data.
Bibliografie:ObjectType-Article-1
SourceType-Scholarly Journals-1
ObjectType-Feature-2
content type line 23
ISSN:0951-8320
1879-0836
DOI:10.1016/j.ress.2010.09.003