Reconciling global-model estimates and country reporting of anthropogenic forest CO2 sinks

Achieving the long-term temperature goal of the Paris Agreement requires forest-based mitigation. Collective progress towards this goal will be assessed by the Paris Agreement’s Global stocktake. At present, there is a discrepancy of about 4 GtCO2 yr−1 in global anthropogenic net land-use emissions...

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Published in:	Nature climate change Vol. 8; no. 10; pp. 914 - 920
Main Authors:	Grassi, Giacomo, House, Jo, Kurz, Werner A, Cescatti, Alessandro, Houghton, Richard A, Peters, Glen P, Sanz, Maria J, Raul Abad Viñas, Alkama, Ramdane, Arneth, Almut, Alberte Bondeau, Dentener, Frank, Fader, Marianela, Federici, Sandro, Friedlingstein, Pierre, Jain, Atul K, Kato, Etsushi, Koven, Charles D, Lee, Donna, Julia E M S Nabel, Nassikas, Alexander A, Perugini, Lucia, Rossi, Simone, Sitch, Stephen, Viovy, Nicolas, Wiltshire, Andy, Zaehle, Sönke
Format:	Journal Article
Language:	English
Published:	London Nature Publishing Group 01.10.2018
Subjects:	Anthropogenic factors Carbon dioxide Carbon footprint Disaggregation Emission inventories Environmental changes Environmental impact Forests Greenhouse gases Human influences Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Inventories Inventory management Land use Mitigation Paris Agreement Temperature requirements Tracking
ISSN:	1758-678X, 1758-6798
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Abstract	Achieving the long-term temperature goal of the Paris Agreement requires forest-based mitigation. Collective progress towards this goal will be assessed by the Paris Agreement’s Global stocktake. At present, there is a discrepancy of about 4 GtCO2 yr−1 in global anthropogenic net land-use emissions between global models (reflected in IPCC assessment reports) and aggregated national GHG inventories (under the UNFCCC). We show that a substantial part of this discrepancy (about 3.2 GtCO2 yr−1) can be explained by conceptual differences in anthropogenic forest sink estimation, related to the representation of environmental change impacts and the areas considered as managed. For a more credible tracking of collective progress under the Global stocktake, these conceptual differences between models and inventories need to be reconciled. We implement a new method of disaggregation of global land model results that allows greater comparability with GHG inventories. This provides a deeper understanding of model–inventory differences, allowing more transparent analysis of forest-based mitigation and facilitating a more accurate Global stocktake.
AbstractList	Achieving the long-term temperature goal of the Paris Agreement requires forest-based mitigation. Collective progress towards this goal will be assessed by the Paris Agreement’s Global stocktake. At present, there is a discrepancy of about 4 GtCO2 yr−1 in global anthropogenic net land-use emissions between global models (reflected in IPCC assessment reports) and aggregated national GHG inventories (under the UNFCCC). We show that a substantial part of this discrepancy (about 3.2 GtCO2 yr−1) can be explained by conceptual differences in anthropogenic forest sink estimation, related to the representation of environmental change impacts and the areas considered as managed. For a more credible tracking of collective progress under the Global stocktake, these conceptual differences between models and inventories need to be reconciled. We implement a new method of disaggregation of global land model results that allows greater comparability with GHG inventories. This provides a deeper understanding of model–inventory differences, allowing more transparent analysis of forest-based mitigation and facilitating a more accurate Global stocktake.
Author	Cescatti, Alessandro Dentener, Frank Kato, Etsushi Sitch, Stephen Alkama, Ramdane Federici, Sandro Wiltshire, Andy Alberte Bondeau Jain, Atul K Nassikas, Alexander A Julia E M S Nabel House, Jo Grassi, Giacomo Sanz, Maria J Peters, Glen P Rossi, Simone Viovy, Nicolas Fader, Marianela Raul Abad Viñas Lee, Donna Houghton, Richard A Zaehle, Sönke Friedlingstein, Pierre Kurz, Werner A Perugini, Lucia Arneth, Almut Koven, Charles D
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Snippet	Achieving the long-term temperature goal of the Paris Agreement requires forest-based mitigation. Collective progress towards this goal will be assessed by the...
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SubjectTerms	Anthropogenic factors Carbon dioxide Carbon footprint Disaggregation Emission inventories Environmental changes Environmental impact Forests Greenhouse gases Human influences Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Inventories Inventory management Land use Mitigation Paris Agreement Temperature requirements Tracking
Title	Reconciling global-model estimates and country reporting of anthropogenic forest CO2 sinks
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