Solar radiation and ENSO predict fruiting phenology patterns in a 15-year record from Kibale National Park, Uganda

Fruiting, flowering, and leaf set patterns influence many aspects of tropical forest communities, but there are few long-term studies examining potential drivers of these patterns, particularly in Africa. We evaluated a 15-year dataset of tree phenology in Kibale National Park, Uganda, to identify a...

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Vydáno v:	Biotropica Ročník 50; číslo 3; s. 384 - 395
Hlavní autoři:	Chapman, Colin A., Valenta, Kim, Bonnell, Tyler R., Brown, Kevin A., Chapman, Lauren J.
Médium:	Journal Article
Jazyk:	angličtina
Vydáno:	Hoboken Wiley 01.05.2018 Wiley Subscription Services, Inc
Témata:	Annual variations Climate change Cloud cover Crop production data collection Dynamics El Nino El Nino phenomena ENSO Flowering Forest communities Fruit set fruiting patterns Fruits Irradiance leaves National parks Phenology prediction Radiance Rain Rainfall Regression analysis Regression models Seasonal variations Seasonality Solar radiation Southern Oscillation SPECIAL SECTION Temperature temporal variation Trees Tropical climate Tropical forests Uganda Uganda
ISSN:	0006-3606, 1744-7429
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Abstract	Fruiting, flowering, and leaf set patterns influence many aspects of tropical forest communities, but there are few long-term studies examining potential drivers of these patterns, particularly in Africa. We evaluated a 15-year dataset of tree phenology in Kibale National Park, Uganda, to identify abiotic predictors of fruit phenological patterns and discuss our findings in light of climate change. We quantified fruiting for 326 trees from 43 species and evaluated these patterns in relation to solar radiance, rainfall, and monthly temperature. We used time-lagged variables based on seasonality in linear regression models to assess the effect of abiotic variables on the proportion of fruiting trees. Annual fruiting varied over 3.8-fold, and inter-annual variation in fruiting is associated with the extent of fruiting in the peak period, not variation in time of fruit set. While temperature and rainfall showed positive effects on fruiting, solar radiance in the two-year period encompassing a given year and the previous year was the strongest predictor of fruiting. As solar irradiance was the strongest predictor of fruiting, the projected increase in rainfall associated with climate change, and coincident increase in cloud cover suggest that climate change will lead to a decrease in fruiting. ENSO in the prior 24-month period was also significantly associated with annual ripe fruit production, and ENSO is also affected by climate change. Predicting changes in phenology demands understanding inter-annual variation in fruit dynamics in light of potential abiotic drivers, patterns that will only emerge with long-term data.
AbstractList	Fruiting, flowering, and leaf set patterns influence many aspects of tropical forest communities, but there are few long‐term studies examining potential drivers of these patterns, particularly in Africa. We evaluated a 15‐year dataset of tree phenology in Kibale National Park, Uganda, to identify abiotic predictors of fruit phenological patterns and discuss our findings in light of climate change. We quantified fruiting for 326 trees from 43 species and evaluated these patterns in relation to solar radiance, rainfall, and monthly temperature. We used time‐lagged variables based on seasonality in linear regression models to assess the effect of abiotic variables on the proportion of fruiting trees. Annual fruiting varied over 3.8‐fold, and inter‐annual variation in fruiting is associated with the extent of fruiting in the peak period, not variation in time of fruit set. While temperature and rainfall showed positive effects on fruiting, solar radiance in the two‐year period encompassing a given year and the previous year was the strongest predictor of fruiting. As solar irradiance was the strongest predictor of fruiting, the projected increase in rainfall associated with climate change, and coincident increase in cloud cover suggest that climate change will lead to a decrease in fruiting. ENSO in the prior 24‐month period was also significantly associated with annual ripe fruit production, and ENSO is also affected by climate change. Predicting changes in phenology demands understanding inter‐annual variation in fruit dynamics in light of potential abiotic drivers, patterns that will only emerge with long‐term data. Fruiting, flowering, and leaf set patterns influence many aspects of tropical forest communities, but there are few long‐term studies examining potential drivers of these patterns, particularly in Africa. We evaluated a 15‐year dataset of tree phenology in Kibale National Park, Uganda, to identify abiotic predictors of fruit phenological patterns and discuss our findings in light of climate change. We quantified fruiting for 326 trees from 43 species and evaluated these patterns in relation to solar radiance, rainfall, and monthly temperature. We used time‐lagged variables based on seasonality in linear regression models to assess the effect of abiotic variables on the proportion of fruiting trees. Annual fruiting varied over 3.8‐fold, and inter‐annual variation in fruiting is associated with the extent of fruiting in the peak period, not variation in time of fruit set. While temperature and rainfall showed positive effects on fruiting, solar radiance in the two‐year period encompassing a given year and the previous year was the strongest predictor of fruiting. As solar irradiance was the strongest predictor of fruiting, the projected increase in rainfall associated with climate change, and coincident increase in cloud cover suggest that climate change will lead to a decrease in fruiting. ENSO in the prior 24‐month period was also significantly associated with annual ripe fruit production, and ENSO is also affected by climate change. Predicting changes in phenology demands understanding inter‐annual variation in fruit dynamics in light of potential abiotic drivers, patterns that will only emerge with long‐term data. Fruiting, flowering, and leaf set patterns influence many aspects of tropical forest communities, but there are few long‐term studies examining potential drivers of these patterns, particularly in Africa. We evaluated a 15‐year dataset of tree phenology in Kibale National Park, Uganda, to identify abiotic predictors of fruit phenological patterns and discuss our findings in light of climate change. We quantified fruiting for 326 trees from 43 species and evaluated these patterns in relation to solar radiance, rainfall, and monthly temperature. We used time‐lagged variables based on seasonality in linear regression models to assess the effect of abiotic variables on the proportion of fruiting trees. Annual fruiting varied over 3.8‐fold, and inter‐annual variation in fruiting is associated with the extent of fruiting in the peak period, not variation in time of fruit set. While temperature and rainfall showed positive effects on fruiting, solar radiance in the two‐year period encompassing a given year and the previous year was the strongest predictor of fruiting. As solar irradiance was the strongest predictor of fruiting, the projected increase in rainfall associated with climate change, and coincident increase in cloud cover suggest that climate change will lead to a decrease in fruiting. ENSO in the prior 24‐month period was also significantly associated with annual ripe fruit production, and ENSO is also affected by climate change. Predicting changes in phenology demands understanding inter‐annual variation in fruit dynamics in light of potential abiotic drivers, patterns that will only emerge with long‐term data.
Author	Brown, Kevin A. Valenta, Kim Bonnell, Tyler R. Chapman, Colin A. Chapman, Lauren J.
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Snippet	Fruiting, flowering, and leaf set patterns influence many aspects of tropical forest communities, but there are few long-term studies examining potential... Fruiting, flowering, and leaf set patterns influence many aspects of tropical forest communities, but there are few long‐term studies examining potential...
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SubjectTerms	Annual variations Climate change Cloud cover Crop production data collection Dynamics El Nino El Nino phenomena ENSO Flowering Forest communities Fruit set fruiting patterns Fruits Irradiance leaves National parks Phenology prediction Radiance Rain Rainfall Regression analysis Regression models Seasonal variations Seasonality Solar radiation Southern Oscillation SPECIAL SECTION Temperature temporal variation Trees Tropical climate Tropical forests Uganda
Title	Solar radiation and ENSO predict fruiting phenology patterns in a 15-year record from Kibale National Park, Uganda
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