Making ecological models adequate

Critical evaluation of the adequacy of ecological models is urgently needed to enhance their utility in developing theory and enabling environmental managers and policymakers to make informed decisions. Poorly supported management can have detrimental, costly or irreversible impacts on the environme...

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Veröffentlicht in:Ecology letters Jg. 21; H. 2; S. 153 - 166
Hauptverfasser: Getz, Wayne M., Marshall, Charles R., Carlson, Colin J., Giuggioli, Luca, Ryan, Sadie J., Romañach, Stephanie S., Boettiger, Carl, Chamberlain, Samuel D., Larsen, Laurel, D’Odorico, Paolo, O’Sullivan, David, Coulson, Tim
Format: Journal Article
Sprache:Englisch
Veröffentlicht: England Blackwell Publishing Ltd 01.02.2018
Schlagworte:
Adequacy
appropriate complexity modelling
coarse graining
Decision theory
disease modelling
Ecological models
Ecological monitoring
Ecological studies
Ecology
Ecosystem
ecosystems restoration models
Environmental impact
Environmental management
environmental management models
extinction risk assessment
Forecasting
Granulation
hierarchical modelling
Mathematical models
model validation
Models, Theoretical
Problem solving
Research Design
Sensitivity analysis
society
coarse graining
disease modelling
environmental management models
appropriate complexity modelling
hierarchical modelling
extinction risk assessment
ecosystems restoration models
ISSN:1461-023X, 1461-0248, 1461-0248
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Zusammenfassung:Critical evaluation of the adequacy of ecological models is urgently needed to enhance their utility in developing theory and enabling environmental managers and policymakers to make informed decisions. Poorly supported management can have detrimental, costly or irreversible impacts on the environment and society. Here, we examine common issues in ecological modelling and suggest criteria for improving modelling frameworks. An appropriate level of process description is crucial to constructing the best possible model, given the available data and understanding of ecological structures. Model details unsupported by data typically lead to over parameterisation and poor model performance. Conversely, a lack of mechanistic details may limit a model's ability to predict ecological systems’ responses to management. Ecological studies that employ models should follow a set of model adequacy assessment protocols that include: asking a series of critical questions regarding state and control variable selection, the determinacy of data, and the sensitivity and validity of analyses. We also need to improve model elaboration, refinement and coarse graining procedures to better understand the relevancy and adequacy of our models and the role they play in advancing theory, improving hind and forecasting, and enabling problem solving and management.
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ISSN:1461-023X
1461-0248
1461-0248
DOI:10.1111/ele.12893