Making ecological models adequate

Critical evaluation of the adequacy of ecological models is urgently needed to enhance their utility in developing theory and enabling environmental managers and policymakers to make informed decisions. Poorly supported management can have detrimental, costly or irreversible impacts on the environme...

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Veröffentlicht in:	Ecology letters Jg. 21; H. 2; S. 153 - 166
Hauptverfasser:	Getz, Wayne M., Marshall, Charles R., Carlson, Colin J., Giuggioli, Luca, Ryan, Sadie J., Romañach, Stephanie S., Boettiger, Carl, Chamberlain, Samuel D., Larsen, Laurel, D’Odorico, Paolo, O’Sullivan, David, Coulson, Tim
Format:	Journal Article
Sprache:	Englisch
Veröffentlicht:	England Blackwell Publishing Ltd 01.02.2018
Schlagworte:	Adequacy appropriate complexity modelling coarse graining Decision theory disease modelling Ecological models Ecological monitoring Ecological studies Ecology Ecosystem ecosystems restoration models Environmental impact Environmental management environmental management models extinction risk assessment Forecasting Granulation hierarchical modelling Mathematical models model validation Models, Theoretical Problem solving Research Design Sensitivity analysis society coarse graining disease modelling environmental management models appropriate complexity modelling hierarchical modelling extinction risk assessment ecosystems restoration models
ISSN:	1461-023X, 1461-0248, 1461-0248
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Abstract	Critical evaluation of the adequacy of ecological models is urgently needed to enhance their utility in developing theory and enabling environmental managers and policymakers to make informed decisions. Poorly supported management can have detrimental, costly or irreversible impacts on the environment and society. Here, we examine common issues in ecological modelling and suggest criteria for improving modelling frameworks. An appropriate level of process description is crucial to constructing the best possible model, given the available data and understanding of ecological structures. Model details unsupported by data typically lead to over parameterisation and poor model performance. Conversely, a lack of mechanistic details may limit a model's ability to predict ecological systems’ responses to management. Ecological studies that employ models should follow a set of model adequacy assessment protocols that include: asking a series of critical questions regarding state and control variable selection, the determinacy of data, and the sensitivity and validity of analyses. We also need to improve model elaboration, refinement and coarse graining procedures to better understand the relevancy and adequacy of our models and the role they play in advancing theory, improving hind and forecasting, and enabling problem solving and management.
AbstractList	Critical evaluation of the adequacy of ecological models is urgently needed to enhance their utility in developing theory and enabling environmental managers and policymakers to make informed decisions. Poorly supported management can have detrimental, costly or irreversible impacts on the environment and society. Here, we examine common issues in ecological modelling and suggest criteria for improving modelling frameworks. An appropriate level of process description is crucial to constructing the best possible model, given the available data and understanding of ecological structures. Model details unsupported by data typically lead to over parameterisation and poor model performance. Conversely, a lack of mechanistic details may limit a model's ability to predict ecological systems' responses to management. Ecological studies that employ models should follow a set of model adequacy assessment protocols that include: asking a series of critical questions regarding state and control variable selection, the determinacy of data, and the sensitivity and validity of analyses. We also need to improve model elaboration, refinement and coarse graining procedures to better understand the relevancy and adequacy of our models and the role they play in advancing theory, improving hind and forecasting, and enabling problem solving and management.Critical evaluation of the adequacy of ecological models is urgently needed to enhance their utility in developing theory and enabling environmental managers and policymakers to make informed decisions. Poorly supported management can have detrimental, costly or irreversible impacts on the environment and society. Here, we examine common issues in ecological modelling and suggest criteria for improving modelling frameworks. An appropriate level of process description is crucial to constructing the best possible model, given the available data and understanding of ecological structures. Model details unsupported by data typically lead to over parameterisation and poor model performance. Conversely, a lack of mechanistic details may limit a model's ability to predict ecological systems' responses to management. Ecological studies that employ models should follow a set of model adequacy assessment protocols that include: asking a series of critical questions regarding state and control variable selection, the determinacy of data, and the sensitivity and validity of analyses. We also need to improve model elaboration, refinement and coarse graining procedures to better understand the relevancy and adequacy of our models and the role they play in advancing theory, improving hind and forecasting, and enabling problem solving and management. Critical evaluation of the adequacy of ecological models is urgently needed to enhance their utility in developing theory and enabling environmental managers and policymakers to make informed decisions. Poorly supported management can have detrimental, costly or irreversible impacts on the environment and society. Here, we examine common issues in ecological modelling and suggest criteria for improving modelling frameworks. An appropriate level of process description is crucial to constructing the best possible model, given the available data and understanding of ecological structures. Model details unsupported by data typically lead to over parameterisation and poor model performance. Conversely, a lack of mechanistic details may limit a model's ability to predict ecological systems’ responses to management. Ecological studies that employ models should follow a set of model adequacy assessment protocols that include: asking a series of critical questions regarding state and control variable selection, the determinacy of data, and the sensitivity and validity of analyses. We also need to improve model elaboration, refinement and coarse graining procedures to better understand the relevancy and adequacy of our models and the role they play in advancing theory, improving hind and forecasting, and enabling problem solving and management.
Author	Carlson, Colin J. Marshall, Charles R. Romañach, Stephanie S. Larsen, Laurel Getz, Wayne M. Boettiger, Carl O’Sullivan, David Coulson, Tim Giuggioli, Luca D’Odorico, Paolo Ryan, Sadie J. Chamberlain, Samuel D.
Author_xml	– sequence: 1 givenname: Wayne M. orcidid: 0000-0001-8784-9354 surname: Getz fullname: Getz, Wayne M. email: wgetz@berkeley.edu organization: University of KwaZulu – sequence: 2 givenname: Charles R. surname: Marshall fullname: Marshall, Charles R. organization: University of California – sequence: 3 givenname: Colin J. surname: Carlson fullname: Carlson, Colin J. organization: University of California – sequence: 4 givenname: Luca surname: Giuggioli fullname: Giuggioli, Luca organization: University of Bristol – sequence: 5 givenname: Sadie J. orcidid: 0000-0002-4308-6321 surname: Ryan fullname: Ryan, Sadie J. organization: University of KwaZulu – sequence: 6 givenname: Stephanie S. surname: Romañach fullname: Romañach, Stephanie S. organization: U.S. Geological Survey – sequence: 7 givenname: Carl orcidid: 0000-0002-1642-628X surname: Boettiger fullname: Boettiger, Carl organization: University of California – sequence: 8 givenname: Samuel D. surname: Chamberlain fullname: Chamberlain, Samuel D. organization: University of California – sequence: 9 givenname: Laurel surname: Larsen fullname: Larsen, Laurel organization: University of California – sequence: 10 givenname: Paolo surname: D’Odorico fullname: D’Odorico, Paolo organization: University of California – sequence: 11 givenname: David surname: O’Sullivan fullname: O’Sullivan, David organization: University of California – sequence: 12 givenname: Tim surname: Coulson fullname: Coulson, Tim
BackLink	https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/29280332$$D View this record in MEDLINE/PubMed
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Snippet	Critical evaluation of the adequacy of ecological models is urgently needed to enhance their utility in developing theory and enabling environmental managers...
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SubjectTerms	Adequacy appropriate complexity modelling coarse graining Decision theory disease modelling Ecological models Ecological monitoring Ecological studies Ecology Ecosystem ecosystems restoration models Environmental impact Environmental management environmental management models extinction risk assessment Forecasting Granulation hierarchical modelling Mathematical models model validation Models, Theoretical Problem solving Research Design Sensitivity analysis society
Title	Making ecological models adequate
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