Historical warming has increased U.S. crop insurance losses

Quantification of the sector-specific financial impacts of historical global warming represents a critical gap in climate change impacts assessment. The multiple decades of county-level data available from the U.S. crop insurance program—which collectively represent aggregate damages to the agricult...

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Vydané v:Environmental research letters Ročník 16; číslo 8; s. 84025 - 84036
Hlavní autori: Diffenbaugh, Noah S, Davenport, Frances V, Burke, Marshall
Médium: Journal Article
Jazyk:English
Vydavateľské údaje: Bristol IOP Publishing 01.08.2021
Predmet:
Agricultural economics
agricultural impacts
Agricultural industry
Anthropogenic factors
Climate change
climate impacts attribution
Climate models
CMIP5
Cost analysis
Crop insurance
Crops
Econometrics
Economic analysis
economic impacts
Environmental impact
Global climate
Global climate models
Global warming
Human influences
Insurance
Radiative forcing
United States > US
ISSN:1748-9326, 1748-9326
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Shrnutí:Quantification of the sector-specific financial impacts of historical global warming represents a critical gap in climate change impacts assessment. The multiple decades of county-level data available from the U.S. crop insurance program—which collectively represent aggregate damages to the agricultural sector largely borne by U.S. taxpayers—present a unique opportunity to close this gap. Using econometric analysis in combination with observed and simulated changes in county-level temperature, we show that global warming has already contributed substantially to rising crop insurance losses in the U.S. For example, we estimate that county-level temperature trends have contributed $US 2017 27.0 billion—or 19%—of the national-level crop insurance losses over the 1991–2017 period. Further, we estimate that observed warming contributed almost half of total losses in the most costly single year (2012). In addition, analyses of a large suite of global climate model simulations yield very high confidence that anthropogenic climate forcing has increased U.S. crop insurance losses. These sector-specific estimates provide important quantitative information about the financial costs of the global warming that has already occurred (including the costs of individual extreme events), as well as the economic value of mitigation and/or adaptation options.
Bibliografia:ERL-111343.R1
ObjectType-Article-1
SourceType-Scholarly Journals-1
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content type line 14
ISSN:1748-9326
1748-9326
DOI:10.1088/1748-9326/ac1223