Historical warming has increased U.S. crop insurance losses

Quantification of the sector-specific financial impacts of historical global warming represents a critical gap in climate change impacts assessment. The multiple decades of county-level data available from the U.S. crop insurance program—which collectively represent aggregate damages to the agricult...

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Published in:	Environmental research letters Vol. 16; no. 8; pp. 84025 - 84036
Main Authors:	Diffenbaugh, Noah S, Davenport, Frances V, Burke, Marshall
Format:	Journal Article
Language:	English
Published:	Bristol IOP Publishing 01.08.2021
Subjects:	Agricultural economics agricultural impacts Agricultural industry Anthropogenic factors Climate change climate impacts attribution Climate models CMIP5 Cost analysis Crop insurance Crops Econometrics Economic analysis economic impacts Environmental impact Global climate Global climate models Global warming Human influences Insurance Radiative forcing United States > US
ISSN:	1748-9326, 1748-9326
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Abstract	Quantification of the sector-specific financial impacts of historical global warming represents a critical gap in climate change impacts assessment. The multiple decades of county-level data available from the U.S. crop insurance program—which collectively represent aggregate damages to the agricultural sector largely borne by U.S. taxpayers—present a unique opportunity to close this gap. Using econometric analysis in combination with observed and simulated changes in county-level temperature, we show that global warming has already contributed substantially to rising crop insurance losses in the U.S. For example, we estimate that county-level temperature trends have contributed $US 2017 27.0 billion—or 19%—of the national-level crop insurance losses over the 1991–2017 period. Further, we estimate that observed warming contributed almost half of total losses in the most costly single year (2012). In addition, analyses of a large suite of global climate model simulations yield very high confidence that anthropogenic climate forcing has increased U.S. crop insurance losses. These sector-specific estimates provide important quantitative information about the financial costs of the global warming that has already occurred (including the costs of individual extreme events), as well as the economic value of mitigation and/or adaptation options.
AbstractList	Quantification of the sector-specific financial impacts of historical global warming represents a critical gap in climate change impacts assessment. The multiple decades of county-level data available from the U.S. crop insurance program—which collectively represent aggregate damages to the agricultural sector largely borne by U.S. taxpayers—present a unique opportunity to close this gap. Using econometric analysis in combination with observed and simulated changes in county-level temperature, we show that global warming has already contributed substantially to rising crop insurance losses in the U.S. For example, we estimate that county-level temperature trends have contributed $US 2017 27.0 billion—or 19%—of the national-level crop insurance losses over the 1991–2017 period. Further, we estimate that observed warming contributed almost half of total losses in the most costly single year (2012). In addition, analyses of a large suite of global climate model simulations yield very high confidence that anthropogenic climate forcing has increased U.S. crop insurance losses. These sector-specific estimates provide important quantitative information about the financial costs of the global warming that has already occurred (including the costs of individual extreme events), as well as the economic value of mitigation and/or adaptation options. Quantification of the sector-specific financial impacts of historical global warming represents a critical gap in climate change impacts assessment. The multiple decades of county-level data available from the U.S. crop insurance program—which collectively represent aggregate damages to the agricultural sector largely borne by U.S. taxpayers—present a unique opportunity to close this gap. Using econometric analysis in combination with observed and simulated changes in county-level temperature, we show that global warming has already contributed substantially to rising crop insurance losses in the U.S. For example, we estimate that county-level temperature trends have contributed $US2017 27.0 billion—or 19%—of the national-level crop insurance losses over the 1991–2017 period. Further, we estimate that observed warming contributed almost half of total losses in the most costly single year (2012). In addition, analyses of a large suite of global climate model simulations yield very high confidence that anthropogenic climate forcing has increased U.S. crop insurance losses. These sector-specific estimates provide important quantitative information about the financial costs of the global warming that has already occurred (including the costs of individual extreme events), as well as the economic value of mitigation and/or adaptation options. Quantification of the sector-specific financial impacts of historical global warming represents a critical gap in climate change impacts assessment. The multiple decades of county-level data available from the U.S. crop insurance program—which collectively represent aggregate damages to the agricultural sector largely borne by U.S. taxpayers—present a unique opportunity to close this gap. Using econometric analysis in combination with observed and simulated changes in county-level temperature, we show that global warming has already contributed substantially to rising crop insurance losses in the U.S. For example, we estimate that county-level temperature trends have contributed $US _2017 27.0 billion—or 19%—of the national-level crop insurance losses over the 1991–2017 period. Further, we estimate that observed warming contributed almost half of total losses in the most costly single year (2012). In addition, analyses of a large suite of global climate model simulations yield very high confidence that anthropogenic climate forcing has increased U.S. crop insurance losses. These sector-specific estimates provide important quantitative information about the financial costs of the global warming that has already occurred (including the costs of individual extreme events), as well as the economic value of mitigation and/or adaptation options.
Author	Diffenbaugh, Noah S Davenport, Frances V Burke, Marshall
Author_xml	– sequence: 1 givenname: Noah S orcidid: 0000-0002-8856-4964 surname: Diffenbaugh fullname: Diffenbaugh, Noah S organization: Woods Institute for the Environment, Stanford University , Stanford, CA, United States of America – sequence: 2 givenname: Frances V orcidid: 0000-0002-3061-2062 surname: Davenport fullname: Davenport, Frances V organization: Stanford University Department of Earth System Science, Stanford, CA, United States of America – sequence: 3 givenname: Marshall surname: Burke fullname: Burke, Marshall organization: National Bureau of Economic Research , Cambridge, MA, United States of America
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Copyright_xml	– notice: 2021 The Author(s). Published by IOP Publishing Ltd – notice: 2021. This work is published under http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0 (the “License”). Notwithstanding the ProQuest Terms and Conditions, you may use this content in accordance with the terms of the License.
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Snippet	Quantification of the sector-specific financial impacts of historical global warming represents a critical gap in climate change impacts assessment. The...
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SubjectTerms	Agricultural economics agricultural impacts Agricultural industry Anthropogenic factors Climate change climate impacts attribution Climate models CMIP5 Cost analysis Crop insurance Crops Econometrics Economic analysis economic impacts Environmental impact Global climate Global climate models Global warming Human influences Insurance Radiative forcing
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Title	Historical warming has increased U.S. crop insurance losses
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