A fast Monte Carlo expectation-maximization algorithm for estimation in latent class model analysis with an application to assess diagnostic accuracy for cervical neoplasia in women with atypical glandular cells

In this article, we use a latent class model (LCM) with prevalence modeled as a function of covariates to assess diagnostic test accuracy in situations where the true disease status is not observed, but observations on three or more conditionally independent diagnostic tests are available. A fast Mo...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Journal of applied statistics Vol. 40; no. 12; pp. 2699 - 2719
Main Authors: Kang, Le, Carter, Randy, Darcy, Kathleen, Kauderer, James, Liao, Shu-Yuan
Format: Journal Article
Language:English
Published: Abingdon Taylor & Francis 01.12.2013
Taylor & Francis Ltd
Subjects:
Accuracy
adjusted information matrix
Algorithms
bootstrap standard errors
Comparative studies
Computer simulation
diagnostic accuracy
Diagnostic systems
Estimates
Gynecology
imperfect gold standard
latent class model
Mathematical models
MCEM estimation
Medical diagnosis
Monte Carlo methods
Monte Carlo simulation
Parameter estimation
Standard error
ISSN:0266-4763, 1360-0532
Online Access:Get full text
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Summary:In this article, we use a latent class model (LCM) with prevalence modeled as a function of covariates to assess diagnostic test accuracy in situations where the true disease status is not observed, but observations on three or more conditionally independent diagnostic tests are available. A fast Monte Carlo expectation-maximization (MCEM) algorithm with binary (disease) diagnostic data is implemented to estimate parameters of interest; namely, sensitivity, specificity, and prevalence of the disease as a function of covariates. To obtain standard errors for confidence interval construction of estimated parameters, the missing information principle is applied to adjust information matrix estimates. We compare the adjusted information matrix-based standard error estimates with the bootstrap standard error estimates both obtained using the fast MCEM algorithm through an extensive Monte Carlo study. Simulation demonstrates that the adjusted information matrix approach estimates the standard error similarly with the bootstrap methods under certain scenarios. The bootstrap percentile intervals have satisfactory coverage probabilities. We then apply the LCM analysis to a real data set of 122 subjects from a Gynecologic Oncology Group study of significant cervical lesion diagnosis in women with atypical glandular cells of undetermined significance to compare the diagnostic accuracy of a histology-based evaluation, a carbonic anhydrase-IX biomarker-based test and a human papillomavirus DNA test.
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ISSN:0266-4763
1360-0532
DOI:10.1080/02664763.2013.825704