Enhancing Patient Selection in Sepsis Clinical Trials Design Through an AI Enrichment Strategy: Algorithm Development and Validation

Sepsis is a heterogeneous syndrome, and enrollment of more homogeneous patients is essential to improve the efficiency of clinical trials. Artificial intelligence (AI) has facilitated the identification of homogeneous subgroups, but how to estimate the uncertainty of the model outputs when applying...

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Vydané v:Journal of medical Internet research Ročník 26; číslo 8; s. e54621
Hlavní autori: Yang, Meicheng, Zhuang, Jinqiang, Hu, Wenhan, Li, Jianqing, Wang, Yu, Zhang, Zhongheng, Liu, Chengyu, Chen, Hui
Médium: Journal Article
Jazyk:English
Vydavateľské údaje: Canada Journal of Medical Internet Research 04.09.2024
JMIR Publications
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ISSN:1438-8871, 1439-4456, 1438-8871
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Abstract Sepsis is a heterogeneous syndrome, and enrollment of more homogeneous patients is essential to improve the efficiency of clinical trials. Artificial intelligence (AI) has facilitated the identification of homogeneous subgroups, but how to estimate the uncertainty of the model outputs when applying AI to clinical decision-making remains unknown. We aimed to design an AI-based model for purposeful patient enrollment, ensuring that a patient with sepsis recruited into a trial would still be persistently ill by the time the proposed therapy could impact patient outcome. We also expected that the model could provide interpretable factors and estimate the uncertainty of the model outputs at a customized confidence level. In this retrospective study, 9135 patients with sepsis requiring vasopressor treatment within 24 hours after sepsis onset were enrolled from Beth Israel Deaconess Medical Center. This cohort was used for model development, and 10-fold cross-validation with 50 repeats was used for internal validation. In total, 3743 patients with sepsis from the eICU Collaborative Research Database were used as the external validation cohort. All included patients with sepsis were stratified based on disease progression trajectories: rapid death, recovery, and persistent ill. A total of 148 variables were selected for predicting the 3 trajectories. Four machine learning algorithms with 3 different setups were used. We estimated the uncertainty of the model outputs using conformal prediction (CP). The Shapley Additive Explanations method was used to explain the model. The multiclass gradient boosting machine was identified as the best-performing model with good discrimination and calibration performance in both validation cohorts. The mean area under the receiver operating characteristic curve with SD was 0.906 (0.018) for rapid death, 0.843 (0.008) for recovery, and 0.807 (0.010) for persistent ill in the internal validation cohort. In the external validation cohort, the mean area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (SD) was 0.878 (0.003) for rapid death, 0.764 (0.008) for recovery, and 0.696 (0.007) for persistent ill. The maximum norepinephrine equivalence, total urine output, Acute Physiology Score III, mean systolic blood pressure, and the coefficient of variation of oxygen saturation contributed the most. Compared to the model without CP, using the model with CP at a mixed confidence approach reduced overall prediction errors by 27.6% (n=62) and 30.7% (n=412) in the internal and external validation cohorts, respectively, as well as enabled the identification of more potentially persistent ill patients. The implementation of our model has the potential to reduce heterogeneity and enroll more homogeneous patients in sepsis clinical trials. The use of CP for estimating the uncertainty of the model outputs allows for a more comprehensive understanding of the model's reliability and assists in making informed decisions based on the predicted outcomes.
AbstractList Sepsis is a heterogeneous syndrome, and enrollment of more homogeneous patients is essential to improve the efficiency of clinical trials. Artificial intelligence (AI) has facilitated the identification of homogeneous subgroups, but how to estimate the uncertainty of the model outputs when applying AI to clinical decision-making remains unknown. We aimed to design an AI-based model for purposeful patient enrollment, ensuring that a patient with sepsis recruited into a trial would still be persistently ill by the time the proposed therapy could impact patient outcome. We also expected that the model could provide interpretable factors and estimate the uncertainty of the model outputs at a customized confidence level. In this retrospective study, 9135 patients with sepsis requiring vasopressor treatment within 24 hours after sepsis onset were enrolled from Beth Israel Deaconess Medical Center. This cohort was used for model development, and 10-fold cross-validation with 50 repeats was used for internal validation. In total, 3743 patients with sepsis from the eICU Collaborative Research Database were used as the external validation cohort. All included patients with sepsis were stratified based on disease progression trajectories: rapid death, recovery, and persistent ill. A total of 148 variables were selected for predicting the 3 trajectories. Four machine learning algorithms with 3 different setups were used. We estimated the uncertainty of the model outputs using conformal prediction (CP). The Shapley Additive Explanations method was used to explain the model. The multiclass gradient boosting machine was identified as the best-performing model with good discrimination and calibration performance in both validation cohorts. The mean area under the receiver operating characteristic curve with SD was 0.906 (0.018) for rapid death, 0.843 (0.008) for recovery, and 0.807 (0.010) for persistent ill in the internal validation cohort. In the external validation cohort, the mean area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (SD) was 0.878 (0.003) for rapid death, 0.764 (0.008) for recovery, and 0.696 (0.007) for persistent ill. The maximum norepinephrine equivalence, total urine output, Acute Physiology Score III, mean systolic blood pressure, and the coefficient of variation of oxygen saturation contributed the most. Compared to the model without CP, using the model with CP at a mixed confidence approach reduced overall prediction errors by 27.6% (n=62) and 30.7% (n=412) in the internal and external validation cohorts, respectively, as well as enabled the identification of more potentially persistent ill patients. The implementation of our model has the potential to reduce heterogeneity and enroll more homogeneous patients in sepsis clinical trials. The use of CP for estimating the uncertainty of the model outputs allows for a more comprehensive understanding of the model’s reliability and assists in making informed decisions based on the predicted outcomes.
BackgroundSepsis is a heterogeneous syndrome, and enrollment of more homogeneous patients is essential to improve the efficiency of clinical trials. Artificial intelligence (AI) has facilitated the identification of homogeneous subgroups, but how to estimate the uncertainty of the model outputs when applying AI to clinical decision-making remains unknown. ObjectiveWe aimed to design an AI-based model for purposeful patient enrollment, ensuring that a patient with sepsis recruited into a trial would still be persistently ill by the time the proposed therapy could impact patient outcome. We also expected that the model could provide interpretable factors and estimate the uncertainty of the model outputs at a customized confidence level. MethodsIn this retrospective study, 9135 patients with sepsis requiring vasopressor treatment within 24 hours after sepsis onset were enrolled from Beth Israel Deaconess Medical Center. This cohort was used for model development, and 10-fold cross-validation with 50 repeats was used for internal validation. In total, 3743 patients with sepsis from the eICU Collaborative Research Database were used as the external validation cohort. All included patients with sepsis were stratified based on disease progression trajectories: rapid death, recovery, and persistent ill. A total of 148 variables were selected for predicting the 3 trajectories. Four machine learning algorithms with 3 different setups were used. We estimated the uncertainty of the model outputs using conformal prediction (CP). The Shapley Additive Explanations method was used to explain the model. ResultsThe multiclass gradient boosting machine was identified as the best-performing model with good discrimination and calibration performance in both validation cohorts. The mean area under the receiver operating characteristic curve with SD was 0.906 (0.018) for rapid death, 0.843 (0.008) for recovery, and 0.807 (0.010) for persistent ill in the internal validation cohort. In the external validation cohort, the mean area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (SD) was 0.878 (0.003) for rapid death, 0.764 (0.008) for recovery, and 0.696 (0.007) for persistent ill. The maximum norepinephrine equivalence, total urine output, Acute Physiology Score III, mean systolic blood pressure, and the coefficient of variation of oxygen saturation contributed the most. Compared to the model without CP, using the model with CP at a mixed confidence approach reduced overall prediction errors by 27.6% (n=62) and 30.7% (n=412) in the internal and external validation cohorts, respectively, as well as enabled the identification of more potentially persistent ill patients. ConclusionsThe implementation of our model has the potential to reduce heterogeneity and enroll more homogeneous patients in sepsis clinical trials. The use of CP for estimating the uncertainty of the model outputs allows for a more comprehensive understanding of the model’s reliability and assists in making informed decisions based on the predicted outcomes.
Sepsis is a heterogeneous syndrome, and enrollment of more homogeneous patients is essential to improve the efficiency of clinical trials. Artificial intelligence (AI) has facilitated the identification of homogeneous subgroups, but how to estimate the uncertainty of the model outputs when applying AI to clinical decision-making remains unknown.BACKGROUNDSepsis is a heterogeneous syndrome, and enrollment of more homogeneous patients is essential to improve the efficiency of clinical trials. Artificial intelligence (AI) has facilitated the identification of homogeneous subgroups, but how to estimate the uncertainty of the model outputs when applying AI to clinical decision-making remains unknown.We aimed to design an AI-based model for purposeful patient enrollment, ensuring that a patient with sepsis recruited into a trial would still be persistently ill by the time the proposed therapy could impact patient outcome. We also expected that the model could provide interpretable factors and estimate the uncertainty of the model outputs at a customized confidence level.OBJECTIVEWe aimed to design an AI-based model for purposeful patient enrollment, ensuring that a patient with sepsis recruited into a trial would still be persistently ill by the time the proposed therapy could impact patient outcome. We also expected that the model could provide interpretable factors and estimate the uncertainty of the model outputs at a customized confidence level.In this retrospective study, 9135 patients with sepsis requiring vasopressor treatment within 24 hours after sepsis onset were enrolled from Beth Israel Deaconess Medical Center. This cohort was used for model development, and 10-fold cross-validation with 50 repeats was used for internal validation. In total, 3743 patients with sepsis from the eICU Collaborative Research Database were used as the external validation cohort. All included patients with sepsis were stratified based on disease progression trajectories: rapid death, recovery, and persistent ill. A total of 148 variables were selected for predicting the 3 trajectories. Four machine learning algorithms with 3 different setups were used. We estimated the uncertainty of the model outputs using conformal prediction (CP). The Shapley Additive Explanations method was used to explain the model.METHODSIn this retrospective study, 9135 patients with sepsis requiring vasopressor treatment within 24 hours after sepsis onset were enrolled from Beth Israel Deaconess Medical Center. This cohort was used for model development, and 10-fold cross-validation with 50 repeats was used for internal validation. In total, 3743 patients with sepsis from the eICU Collaborative Research Database were used as the external validation cohort. All included patients with sepsis were stratified based on disease progression trajectories: rapid death, recovery, and persistent ill. A total of 148 variables were selected for predicting the 3 trajectories. Four machine learning algorithms with 3 different setups were used. We estimated the uncertainty of the model outputs using conformal prediction (CP). The Shapley Additive Explanations method was used to explain the model.The multiclass gradient boosting machine was identified as the best-performing model with good discrimination and calibration performance in both validation cohorts. The mean area under the receiver operating characteristic curve with SD was 0.906 (0.018) for rapid death, 0.843 (0.008) for recovery, and 0.807 (0.010) for persistent ill in the internal validation cohort. In the external validation cohort, the mean area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (SD) was 0.878 (0.003) for rapid death, 0.764 (0.008) for recovery, and 0.696 (0.007) for persistent ill. The maximum norepinephrine equivalence, total urine output, Acute Physiology Score III, mean systolic blood pressure, and the coefficient of variation of oxygen saturation contributed the most. Compared to the model without CP, using the model with CP at a mixed confidence approach reduced overall prediction errors by 27.6% (n=62) and 30.7% (n=412) in the internal and external validation cohorts, respectively, as well as enabled the identification of more potentially persistent ill patients.RESULTSThe multiclass gradient boosting machine was identified as the best-performing model with good discrimination and calibration performance in both validation cohorts. The mean area under the receiver operating characteristic curve with SD was 0.906 (0.018) for rapid death, 0.843 (0.008) for recovery, and 0.807 (0.010) for persistent ill in the internal validation cohort. In the external validation cohort, the mean area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (SD) was 0.878 (0.003) for rapid death, 0.764 (0.008) for recovery, and 0.696 (0.007) for persistent ill. The maximum norepinephrine equivalence, total urine output, Acute Physiology Score III, mean systolic blood pressure, and the coefficient of variation of oxygen saturation contributed the most. Compared to the model without CP, using the model with CP at a mixed confidence approach reduced overall prediction errors by 27.6% (n=62) and 30.7% (n=412) in the internal and external validation cohorts, respectively, as well as enabled the identification of more potentially persistent ill patients.The implementation of our model has the potential to reduce heterogeneity and enroll more homogeneous patients in sepsis clinical trials. The use of CP for estimating the uncertainty of the model outputs allows for a more comprehensive understanding of the model's reliability and assists in making informed decisions based on the predicted outcomes.CONCLUSIONSThe implementation of our model has the potential to reduce heterogeneity and enroll more homogeneous patients in sepsis clinical trials. The use of CP for estimating the uncertainty of the model outputs allows for a more comprehensive understanding of the model's reliability and assists in making informed decisions based on the predicted outcomes.
Background Sepsis is a heterogeneous syndrome, and enrollment of more homogeneous patients is essential to improve the efficiency of clinical trials. Artificial intelligence (AI) has facilitated the identification of homogeneous subgroups, but how to estimate the uncertainty of the model outputs when applying AI to clinical decision-making remains unknown. Objective We aimed to design an AI-based model for purposeful patient enrollment, ensuring that a patient with sepsis recruited into a trial would still be persistently ill by the time the proposed therapy could impact patient outcome. We also expected that the model could provide interpretable factors and estimate the uncertainty of the model outputs at a customized confidence level. Methods In this retrospective study, 9135 patients with sepsis requiring vasopressor treatment within 24 hours after sepsis onset were enrolled from Beth Israel Deaconess Medical Center. This cohort was used for model development, and 10-fold cross-validation with 50 repeats was used for internal validation. In total, 3743 patients with sepsis from the eICU Collaborative Research Database were used as the external validation cohort. All included patients with sepsis were stratified based on disease progression trajectories: rapid death, recovery, and persistent ill. A total of 148 variables were selected for predicting the 3 trajectories. Four machine learning algorithms with 3 different setups were used. We estimated the uncertainty of the model outputs using conformal prediction (CP). The Shapley Additive Explanations method was used to explain the model. Results The multiclass gradient boosting machine was identified as the best-performing model with good discrimination and calibration performance in both validation cohorts. The mean area under the receiver operating characteristic curve with SD was 0.906 (0.018) for rapid death, 0.843 (0.008) for recovery, and 0.807 (0.010) for persistent ill in the internal validation cohort. In the external validation cohort, the mean area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (SD) was 0.878 (0.003) for rapid death, 0.764 (0.008) for recovery, and 0.696 (0.007) for persistent ill. The maximum norepinephrine equivalence, total urine output, Acute Physiology Score III, mean systolic blood pressure, and the coefficient of variation of oxygen saturation contributed the most. Compared to the model without CP, using the model with CP at a mixed confidence approach reduced overall prediction errors by 27.6% (n=62) and 30.7% (n=412) in the internal and external validation cohorts, respectively, as well as enabled the identification of more potentially persistent ill patients. Conclusions The implementation of our model has the potential to reduce heterogeneity and enroll more homogeneous patients in sepsis clinical trials. The use of CP for estimating the uncertainty of the model outputs allows for a more comprehensive understanding of the model’s reliability and assists in making informed decisions based on the predicted outcomes.
Sepsis is a heterogeneous syndrome, and enrollment of more homogeneous patients is essential to improve the efficiency of clinical trials. Artificial intelligence (AI) has facilitated the identification of homogeneous subgroups, but how to estimate the uncertainty of the model outputs when applying AI to clinical decision-making remains unknown. We aimed to design an AI-based model for purposeful patient enrollment, ensuring that a patient with sepsis recruited into a trial would still be persistently ill by the time the proposed therapy could impact patient outcome. We also expected that the model could provide interpretable factors and estimate the uncertainty of the model outputs at a customized confidence level. In this retrospective study, 9135 patients with sepsis requiring vasopressor treatment within 24 hours after sepsis onset were enrolled from Beth Israel Deaconess Medical Center. This cohort was used for model development, and 10-fold cross-validation with 50 repeats was used for internal validation. In total, 3743 patients with sepsis from the eICU Collaborative Research Database were used as the external validation cohort. All included patients with sepsis were stratified based on disease progression trajectories: rapid death, recovery, and persistent ill. A total of 148 variables were selected for predicting the 3 trajectories. Four machine learning algorithms with 3 different setups were used. We estimated the uncertainty of the model outputs using conformal prediction (CP). The Shapley Additive Explanations method was used to explain the model. The multiclass gradient boosting machine was identified as the best-performing model with good discrimination and calibration performance in both validation cohorts. The mean area under the receiver operating characteristic curve with SD was 0.906 (0.018) for rapid death, 0.843 (0.008) for recovery, and 0.807 (0.010) for persistent ill in the internal validation cohort. In the external validation cohort, the mean area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (SD) was 0.878 (0.003) for rapid death, 0.764 (0.008) for recovery, and 0.696 (0.007) for persistent ill. The maximum norepinephrine equivalence, total urine output, Acute Physiology Score III, mean systolic blood pressure, and the coefficient of variation of oxygen saturation contributed the most. Compared to the model without CP, using the model with CP at a mixed confidence approach reduced overall prediction errors by 27.6% (n=62) and 30.7% (n=412) in the internal and external validation cohorts, respectively, as well as enabled the identification of more potentially persistent ill patients. The implementation of our model has the potential to reduce heterogeneity and enroll more homogeneous patients in sepsis clinical trials. The use of CP for estimating the uncertainty of the model outputs allows for a more comprehensive understanding of the model's reliability and assists in making informed decisions based on the predicted outcomes.
Audience Academic
Author Zhuang, Jinqiang
Chen, Hui
Hu, Wenhan
Wang, Yu
Zhang, Zhongheng
Li, Jianqing
Liu, Chengyu
Yang, Meicheng
AuthorAffiliation 4 Jiangsu Provincial Key Laboratory of Critical Care Medicine, Department of Critical Care Medicine, Zhongda Hospital School of Medicine Southeast University Nanjing China
6 Department of Emergency Medicine, Key Laboratory of Precision Medicine in Diagnosis and Monitoring Research of Zhejiang Province Sir Run Run Shaw Hospital Zhejiang University School of Medicine Hangzhou China
5 School of Biomedical Engineering and Informatics Nanjing Medical University Nanjing China
3 Key Laboratory of Big Data Analysis and Knowledge Services of Yangzhou City Yangzhou University Yangzhou China
2 Emergency Intensive Care Unit (EICU) The Affiliated Hospital of Yangzhou University Yangzhou University Yangzhou China
1 State Key Laboratory of Digital Medical Engineering School of Instrument Science and Engineering Southeast University Nanjing China
AuthorAffiliation_xml – name: 2 Emergency Intensive Care Unit (EICU) The Affiliated Hospital of Yangzhou University Yangzhou University Yangzhou China
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– name: 6 Department of Emergency Medicine, Key Laboratory of Precision Medicine in Diagnosis and Monitoring Research of Zhejiang Province Sir Run Run Shaw Hospital Zhejiang University School of Medicine Hangzhou China
– name: 1 State Key Laboratory of Digital Medical Engineering School of Instrument Science and Engineering Southeast University Nanjing China
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BackLink https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/39231425$$D View this record in MEDLINE/PubMed
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CitedBy_id crossref_primary_10_1016_j_ecoenv_2025_118136
crossref_primary_10_4103_ajim_ajim_32_25
crossref_primary_10_1038_s41598_025_95604_8
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Copyright Meicheng Yang, Jinqiang Zhuang, Wenhan Hu, Jianqing Li, Yu Wang, Zhongheng Zhang, Chengyu Liu, Hui Chen. Originally published in the Journal of Medical Internet Research (https://www.jmir.org), 04.09.2024.
COPYRIGHT 2024 Journal of Medical Internet Research
Meicheng Yang, Jinqiang Zhuang, Wenhan Hu, Jianqing Li, Yu Wang, Zhongheng Zhang, Chengyu Liu, Hui Chen. Originally published in the Journal of Medical Internet Research (https://www.jmir.org), 04.09.2024. 2024
Copyright_xml – notice: Meicheng Yang, Jinqiang Zhuang, Wenhan Hu, Jianqing Li, Yu Wang, Zhongheng Zhang, Chengyu Liu, Hui Chen. Originally published in the Journal of Medical Internet Research (https://www.jmir.org), 04.09.2024.
– notice: COPYRIGHT 2024 Journal of Medical Internet Research
– notice: Meicheng Yang, Jinqiang Zhuang, Wenhan Hu, Jianqing Li, Yu Wang, Zhongheng Zhang, Chengyu Liu, Hui Chen. Originally published in the Journal of Medical Internet Research (https://www.jmir.org), 04.09.2024. 2024
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Issue 8
Keywords disease progression trajectories
conformal prediction
predictive modeling
artificial intelligence
enrichment strategy
sepsis
Language English
License Meicheng Yang, Jinqiang Zhuang, Wenhan Hu, Jianqing Li, Yu Wang, Zhongheng Zhang, Chengyu Liu, Hui Chen. Originally published in the Journal of Medical Internet Research (https://www.jmir.org), 04.09.2024.
This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work, first published in the Journal of Medical Internet Research (ISSN 1438-8871), is properly cited. The complete bibliographic information, a link to the original publication on https://www.jmir.org/, as well as this copyright and license information must be included.
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PublicationTitle Journal of medical Internet research
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Snippet Sepsis is a heterogeneous syndrome, and enrollment of more homogeneous patients is essential to improve the efficiency of clinical trials. Artificial...
Background Sepsis is a heterogeneous syndrome, and enrollment of more homogeneous patients is essential to improve the efficiency of clinical trials....
BackgroundSepsis is a heterogeneous syndrome, and enrollment of more homogeneous patients is essential to improve the efficiency of clinical trials. Artificial...
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SubjectTerms Aged
Algorithms
Artificial Intelligence
Clinical trials
Clinical Trials as Topic - methods
Data mining
Decision-making
Female
Humans
Infection
Machine learning
Male
Medical centers
Medical research
Medicine, Experimental
Middle Aged
Online databases
Original Paper
Patient Selection
Retrospective Studies
Sepsis - therapy
Title Enhancing Patient Selection in Sepsis Clinical Trials Design Through an AI Enrichment Strategy: Algorithm Development and Validation
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