ASSESSING COMPONENTS OF UNCERTAINTY IN VPA ABUNDANCE AND MORTALITY ESTIMATES USING AN ALTERNATIVE EXPLOITATION RATE-BASED ALGORITHM

Using an exploitation rate (not fishing mortality) based virtual population analysis (VPA) algorithm, which is itself a generalization of the Pope approximation to the original VPA equations, I show how to derive variance estimates for the key VPA outputs (recruitment, SSB, exploitation rates) given...

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Vydané v:Natural resource modeling Ročník 25; číslo 4; s. 574 - 598
Hlavný autor: HILLARY, R. M.
Médium: Journal Article
Jazyk:English
Vydavateľské údaje: Malden, USA Blackwell Publishing Inc 01.11.2012
John Wiley & Sons, Inc
Predmet:
Algorithms
catch-at-age
Estimates
exploitation rate
Marine
Studies
uncertainty
Virtual population analysis
ANE, North Sea
ISSN:0890-8575, 1939-7445
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Shrnutí:Using an exploitation rate (not fishing mortality) based virtual population analysis (VPA) algorithm, which is itself a generalization of the Pope approximation to the original VPA equations, I show how to derive variance estimates for the key VPA outputs (recruitment, SSB, exploitation rates) given variance information on the key inputs (catch‐at‐age/terminal exploitation rates). Given the alternative VPA algorithm permits closed‐form solutions for the outputs in terms of the inputs, the delta method is employed to obtain the variance estimates, removing the need for complex simulation techniques. Using North Sea herring data as an example, the method’s utility is demonstrated by exploring the impact of aging error in the catch data and tuning error on the precision of estimates of SSB, recruitment and exploitation rates, and the parameters of the stock‐recruit relationship.
Bibliografia:istex:C15B76C667B4CBE40D18640ABD5B3435ED26D578
ark:/67375/WNG-KV0D2GTZ-G
ArticleID:NRM113
ObjectType-Article-1
SourceType-Scholarly Journals-1
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ObjectType-Feature-2
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ISSN:0890-8575
1939-7445
DOI:10.1111/j.1939-7445.2011.00113.x