Ocean-forced evolution of the Amundsen Sea catchment, West Antarctica, by 2100

The response of ice streams in the Amundsen Sea Embayment (ASE) to future climate forcing is highly uncertain. Here we present projections of 21st century response of ASE ice streams to modelled local ocean temperature change using a subset of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) simulation...

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Published in:	The cryosphere Vol. 14; no. 4; pp. 1245 - 1258
Main Authors:	Alevropoulos-Borrill, Alanna V., Nias, Isabel J., Payne, Antony J., Golledge, Nicholas R., Bingham, Rory J.
Format:	Journal Article
Language:	English
Published:	Katlenburg-Lindau Copernicus GmbH 15.04.2020 Copernicus Publications
Subjects:	Climate Climate models Computer simulation Datasets Finite element method Future climates General circulation models Glaciation Grid refinement (mathematics) Ice Ice sheet models Ice sheets Ice shelves Ice streams Intercomparison Investigations Ocean temperature Oceans Parameter sensitivity Parameter uncertainty Rivers Sea level Sea level rise Sheet modelling Stiffening Streams Temperature anomalies Temperature changes Temperature dependence Traction Uncertainty Watersheds Amundsen Sea Pacific Ocean Antarctica Southern Ocean
ISSN:	1994-0424, 1994-0416, 1994-0424, 1994-0416
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Abstract	The response of ice streams in the Amundsen Sea Embayment (ASE) to future climate forcing is highly uncertain. Here we present projections of 21st century response of ASE ice streams to modelled local ocean temperature change using a subset of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) simulations. We use the BISICLES adaptive mesh refinement (AMR) ice sheet model, with high-resolution grounding line resolving capabilities, to explore grounding line migration in response to projected sub-ice-shelf basal melting. We find a contribution to sea level rise of between 2.0 and 4.5 cm by 2100 under RCP8.5 conditions from the CMIP5 subset, where the mass loss response is linearly related to the mean ocean temperature anomaly. To account for uncertainty associated with model initialization, we perform three further sets of CMIP5-forced experiments using different parameterizations that explore perturbations to the prescription of initial basal melt, the basal traction coefficient and the ice stiffening factor. We find that the response of the ASE to ocean temperature forcing is highly dependent on the parameter fields obtained in the initialization procedure, where the sensitivity of the ASE ice streams to the sub-ice-shelf melt forcing is dependent on the choice of parameter set. Accounting for ice sheet model parameter uncertainty results in a projected range in sea level equivalent contribution from the ASE of between −0.02 and 12.1 cm by the end of the 21st century.
AbstractList	The response of ice streams in the Amundsen Sea Embayment (ASE) to future climate forcing is highly uncertain. Here we present projections of 21st century response of ASE ice streams to modelled local ocean temperature change using a subset of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) simulations. We use the BISICLES adaptive mesh refinement (AMR) ice sheet model, with high-resolution grounding line resolving capabilities, to explore grounding line migration in response to projected sub-ice-shelf basal melting. We find a contribution to sea level rise of between 2.0 and 4.5 cm by 2100 under RCP8.5 conditions from the CMIP5 subset, where the mass loss response is linearly related to the mean ocean temperature anomaly. To account for uncertainty associated with model initialization, we perform three further sets of CMIP5-forced experiments using different parameterizations that explore perturbations to the prescription of initial basal melt, the basal traction coefficient and the ice stiffening factor. We find that the response of the ASE to ocean temperature forcing is highly dependent on the parameter fields obtained in the initialization procedure, where the sensitivity of the ASE ice streams to the sub-ice-shelf melt forcing is dependent on the choice of parameter set. Accounting for ice sheet model parameter uncertainty results in a projected range in sea level equivalent contribution from the ASE of between -0.02 and 12.1 cm by the end of the 21st century. The response of ice streams in the Amundsen Sea Embayment (ASE) to future climate forcing is highly uncertain. Here we present projections of 21st century response of ASE ice streams to modelled local ocean temperature change using a subset of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) simulations. We use the BISICLES adaptive mesh refinement (AMR) ice sheet model, with high-resolution grounding line resolving capabilities, to explore grounding line migration in response to projected sub-ice-shelf basal melting. We find a contribution to sea level rise of between 2.0 and 4.5 cm by 2100 under RCP8.5 conditions from the CMIP5 subset, where the mass loss response is linearly related to the mean ocean temperature anomaly. To account for uncertainty associated with model initialization, we perform three further sets of CMIP5-forced experiments using different parameterizations that explore perturbations to the prescription of initial basal melt, the basal traction coefficient and the ice stiffening factor. We find that the response of the ASE to ocean temperature forcing is highly dependent on the parameter fields obtained in the initialization procedure, where the sensitivity of the ASE ice streams to the sub-ice-shelf melt forcing is dependent on the choice of parameter set. Accounting for ice sheet model parameter uncertainty results in a projected range in sea level equivalent contribution from the ASE of between −0.02 and 12.1 cm by the end of the 21st century. The response of ice streams in the Amundsen Sea Embayment (ASE) to future climate forcing is highly uncertain. Here we present projections of 21st century response of ASE ice streams to modelled local ocean temperature change using a subset of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) simulations. We use the BISICLES adaptive mesh refinement (AMR) ice sheet model, with high-resolution grounding line resolving capabilities, to explore grounding line migration in response to projected sub-ice-shelf basal melting. We find a contribution to sea level rise of between 2.0 and 4.5 cm by 2100 under RCP8.5 conditions from the CMIP5 subset, where the mass loss response is linearly related to the mean ocean temperature anomaly. To account for uncertainty associated with model initialization, we perform three further sets of CMIP5-forced experiments using different parameterizations that explore perturbations to the prescription of initial basal melt, the basal traction coefficient and the ice stiffening factor. We find that the response of the ASE to ocean temperature forcing is highly dependent on the parameter fields obtained in the initialization procedure, where the sensitivity of the ASE ice streams to the sub-ice-shelf melt forcing is dependent on the choice of parameter set. Accounting for ice sheet model parameter uncertainty results in a projected range in sea level equivalent contribution from the ASE of between −0.02 and 12.1 cm by the end of the 21st century.
Author	Golledge, Nicholas R. Nias, Isabel J. Bingham, Rory J. Alevropoulos-Borrill, Alanna V. Payne, Antony J.
Author_xml	– sequence: 1 givenname: Alanna V. orcidid: 0000-0002-3171-7640 surname: Alevropoulos-Borrill fullname: Alevropoulos-Borrill, Alanna V. – sequence: 2 givenname: Isabel J. orcidid: 0000-0002-5657-8691 surname: Nias fullname: Nias, Isabel J. – sequence: 3 givenname: Antony J. orcidid: 0000-0001-8825-8425 surname: Payne fullname: Payne, Antony J. – sequence: 4 givenname: Nicholas R. orcidid: 0000-0001-7676-8970 surname: Golledge fullname: Golledge, Nicholas R. – sequence: 5 givenname: Rory J. orcidid: 0000-0002-1485-6489 surname: Bingham fullname: Bingham, Rory J.
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Snippet	The response of ice streams in the Amundsen Sea Embayment (ASE) to future climate forcing is highly uncertain. Here we present projections of 21st century... The response of ice streams in the Amundsen Sea Embayment (ASE) to future climate forcing is highly uncertain. Here we present projections of 21st century...
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SubjectTerms	Climate Climate models Computer simulation Datasets Finite element method Future climates General circulation models Glaciation Grid refinement (mathematics) Ice Ice sheet models Ice sheets Ice shelves Ice streams Intercomparison Investigations Ocean temperature Oceans Parameter sensitivity Parameter uncertainty Rivers Sea level Sea level rise Sheet modelling Stiffening Streams Temperature anomalies Temperature changes Temperature dependence Traction Uncertainty Watersheds
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Title	Ocean-forced evolution of the Amundsen Sea catchment, West Antarctica, by 2100
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