Spatial risks of Orthoebolavirus spillover vary based on outbreak type

•We present an accurate map of Orthoebolavirus risk and test its validity.•We also show that the factors predicting spillover vary among classes of outbreaks.•For example, different factors best predict Zaire vs Sudan Orthoebolavirus spillover.•The machine learning methods we demonstrate will be of...

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Vydáno v:	International journal of infectious diseases Ročník 161; s. 108180
Hlavní autoři:	Sundaram, Mekala, Stephens, Patrick R.
Médium:	Journal Article
Jazyk:	angličtina
Vydáno:	Canada Elsevier Ltd 01.12.2025 Elsevier
Témata:	Africa South of the Sahara - epidemiology Animals Communicable Diseases, Emerging - epidemiology Disease Outbreaks Ebolavirus disease Ecosystem Emerging infectious diseases Humans Infectious Disease Logistic Models Machine learning Pulmonary/Respiratory Risk Factors Spillover risk Sudan ebolavirus Zaire ebolavirus Africa South of the Sahara Spillover risk Sudan ebolavirus Ebolavirus disease Emerging infectious diseases Machine learning Zaire ebolavirus machine-learning emerging infectious diseases spillover risk Orthoebolavirus ebolavirus disease
ISSN:	1201-9712, 1878-3511, 1878-3511
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Abstract	•We present an accurate map of Orthoebolavirus risk and test its validity.•We also show that the factors predicting spillover vary among classes of outbreaks.•For example, different factors best predict Zaire vs Sudan Orthoebolavirus spillover.•The machine learning methods we demonstrate will be of value in many emerging infectious disease systems. We develop and test a risk map for Orthoebolaviruses which are emerging infectious pathogens primarily concentrated in sub-Saharan Africa. The accuracy of predictive models and risk maps has been limited thus far by uncertainty in mechanisms underlying spread, low number of known outbreaks, and in how well various drivers predict different types of outbreaks (e.g. human vs epizootic outbreaks, and outbreaks of different viral species). Here, we explore frugivory and other factors as mechanisms of Orthoebolavirus spread and demonstrate statistical methods with repeated cross-validation that can be used even with very small data sets to explore how different factors influence different classes of events using ensemble machine learning logistic regression. We show that covariates predicting outbreaks with the highest discrimination power are frugivore richness (area under curve [AUC] = 0.95) and fruit tree (Ficus) habitat suitability (AUC = 0.94). We found that Ficus distributions contributed to predictions of past Orthoebolavirus outbreaks relatively equally, regardless of type, based on feature contributions estimated using Shapley value calculations. In contrast, frugivore richness was a better contributor of predictions of epizootic than human outbreaks. Hunting activity was a poor predictor overall (AUC = 0.85) but contributed to some Sudan outbreaks predictions. Our results suggest that different drivers best influence different classes of Orthoebolavirus outbreaks and models taking into account a variety of factors are needed to predict future spillover events.
AbstractList	We develop and test a risk map for Orthoebolaviruses which are emerging infectious pathogens primarily concentrated in sub-Saharan Africa. The accuracy of predictive models and risk maps has been limited thus far by uncertainty in mechanisms underlying spread, low number of known outbreaks, and in how well various drivers predict different types of outbreaks (e.g. human vs epizootic outbreaks, and outbreaks of different viral species). Here, we explore frugivory and other factors as mechanisms of Orthoebolavirus spread and demonstrate statistical methods with repeated cross-validation that can be used even with very small data sets to explore how different factors influence different classes of events using ensemble machine learning logistic regression. We show that covariates predicting outbreaks with the highest discrimination power are frugivore richness (area under curve [AUC] = 0.95) and fruit tree (Ficus) habitat suitability (AUC = 0.94). We found that Ficus distributions contributed to predictions of past Orthoebolavirus outbreaks relatively equally, regardless of type, based on feature contributions estimated using Shapley value calculations. In contrast, frugivore richness was a better contributor of predictions of epizootic than human outbreaks. Hunting activity was a poor predictor overall (AUC = 0.85) but contributed to some Sudan outbreaks predictions. Our results suggest that different drivers best influence different classes of Orthoebolavirus outbreaks and models taking into account a variety of factors are needed to predict future spillover events. Objectives: We develop and test a risk map for Orthoebolaviruses which are emerging infectious pathogens primarily concentrated in sub-Saharan Africa. The accuracy of predictive models and risk maps has been limited thus far by uncertainty in mechanisms underlying spread, low number of known outbreaks, and in how well various drivers predict different types of outbreaks (e.g. human vs epizootic outbreaks, and outbreaks of different viral species). Methods: Here, we explore frugivory and other factors as mechanisms of Orthoebolavirus spread and demonstrate statistical methods with repeated cross-validation that can be used even with very small data sets to explore how different factors influence different classes of events using ensemble machine learning logistic regression. Results: We show that covariates predicting outbreaks with the highest discrimination power are frugivore richness (area under curve [AUC] = 0.95) and fruit tree (Ficus) habitat suitability (AUC = 0.94). We found that Ficus distributions contributed to predictions of past Orthoebolavirus outbreaks relatively equally, regardless of type, based on feature contributions estimated using Shapley value calculations. In contrast, frugivore richness was a better contributor of predictions of epizootic than human outbreaks. Hunting activity was a poor predictor overall (AUC = 0.85) but contributed to some Sudan outbreaks predictions. Conclusions: Our results suggest that different drivers best influence different classes of Orthoebolavirus outbreaks and models taking into account a variety of factors are needed to predict future spillover events. Orthoebolaviruses are emerging infectious pathogens primarily concentrated in Sub-Saharan Africa. The accuracy of predictive models and risk maps has been limited by uncertainty in both mechanisms underlying spread, low number of known outbreaks and in how well various drivers predict different types of outbreaks (e.g., human vs epizootic outbreaks, and outbreaks of different viral species).BACKGROUNDOrthoebolaviruses are emerging infectious pathogens primarily concentrated in Sub-Saharan Africa. The accuracy of predictive models and risk maps has been limited by uncertainty in both mechanisms underlying spread, low number of known outbreaks and in how well various drivers predict different types of outbreaks (e.g., human vs epizootic outbreaks, and outbreaks of different viral species).Here we explore frugivory and other factors as mechanisms of Orthoebolavirus spread, and demonstrate statistical methods with repeated cross-validation that can be used even with very small data sets to explore how different factors influence different classes of events using ensemble machine learning logistic regression.METHODSHere we explore frugivory and other factors as mechanisms of Orthoebolavirus spread, and demonstrate statistical methods with repeated cross-validation that can be used even with very small data sets to explore how different factors influence different classes of events using ensemble machine learning logistic regression.We show that covariates predicting outbreaks with highest discrimination power are frugivore richness (AUC=0.95) and fruit tree (Ficus) habitat suitability (AUC=0.94). We found that Ficus distributions contributed to predictions of past Orthoebolavirus outbreaks relatively equally regardless of type, based on feature contributions estimated using shapley value calculations. In contrast, frugivore richness was a better contributor of predictions of epizootic than human outbreaks. Hunting activity was a poor predictor overall (AUC=0.85), but contributed to some Sudan outbreaks predictions.RESULTSWe show that covariates predicting outbreaks with highest discrimination power are frugivore richness (AUC=0.95) and fruit tree (Ficus) habitat suitability (AUC=0.94). We found that Ficus distributions contributed to predictions of past Orthoebolavirus outbreaks relatively equally regardless of type, based on feature contributions estimated using shapley value calculations. In contrast, frugivore richness was a better contributor of predictions of epizootic than human outbreaks. Hunting activity was a poor predictor overall (AUC=0.85), but contributed to some Sudan outbreaks predictions.Our results suggest that different drivers best influence different classes of Orthoebolavirus outbreaks, and that models taking into account a variety of factors are needed to predict future spillover events.CONCLUSIONSOur results suggest that different drivers best influence different classes of Orthoebolavirus outbreaks, and that models taking into account a variety of factors are needed to predict future spillover events. •We present an accurate map of Orthoebolavirus risk and test its validity.•We also show that the factors predicting spillover vary among classes of outbreaks.•For example, different factors best predict Zaire vs Sudan Orthoebolavirus spillover.•The machine learning methods we demonstrate will be of value in many emerging infectious disease systems. We develop and test a risk map for Orthoebolaviruses which are emerging infectious pathogens primarily concentrated in sub-Saharan Africa. The accuracy of predictive models and risk maps has been limited thus far by uncertainty in mechanisms underlying spread, low number of known outbreaks, and in how well various drivers predict different types of outbreaks (e.g. human vs epizootic outbreaks, and outbreaks of different viral species). Here, we explore frugivory and other factors as mechanisms of Orthoebolavirus spread and demonstrate statistical methods with repeated cross-validation that can be used even with very small data sets to explore how different factors influence different classes of events using ensemble machine learning logistic regression. We show that covariates predicting outbreaks with the highest discrimination power are frugivore richness (area under curve [AUC] = 0.95) and fruit tree (Ficus) habitat suitability (AUC = 0.94). We found that Ficus distributions contributed to predictions of past Orthoebolavirus outbreaks relatively equally, regardless of type, based on feature contributions estimated using Shapley value calculations. In contrast, frugivore richness was a better contributor of predictions of epizootic than human outbreaks. Hunting activity was a poor predictor overall (AUC = 0.85) but contributed to some Sudan outbreaks predictions. Our results suggest that different drivers best influence different classes of Orthoebolavirus outbreaks and models taking into account a variety of factors are needed to predict future spillover events. Highlights•We present the most accurate map of Orthoebolavirus risk produced to date •We also show that the factors predicting spillover vary among classes of outbreaks •For example, different factors best predict Zaire vs Sudan Orthoebolavirus spillover •The machine learning methods we demonstrate will be of value in many EID systems
ArticleNumber	108180
Author	Sundaram, Mekala Stephens, Patrick R.
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Keywords	Spillover risk Sudan ebolavirus Ebolavirus disease Emerging infectious diseases Machine learning Zaire ebolavirus machine-learning emerging infectious diseases spillover risk Orthoebolavirus ebolavirus disease
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Snippet	•We present an accurate map of Orthoebolavirus risk and test its validity.•We also show that the factors predicting spillover vary among classes of... Highlights•We present the most accurate map of Orthoebolavirus risk produced to date •We also show that the factors predicting spillover vary among classes of... We develop and test a risk map for Orthoebolaviruses which are emerging infectious pathogens primarily concentrated in sub-Saharan Africa. The accuracy of... Orthoebolaviruses are emerging infectious pathogens primarily concentrated in Sub-Saharan Africa. The accuracy of predictive models and risk maps has been... Objectives: We develop and test a risk map for Orthoebolaviruses which are emerging infectious pathogens primarily concentrated in sub-Saharan Africa. The...
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SubjectTerms	Africa South of the Sahara - epidemiology Animals Communicable Diseases, Emerging - epidemiology Disease Outbreaks Ebolavirus disease Ecosystem Emerging infectious diseases Humans Infectious Disease Logistic Models Machine learning Pulmonary/Respiratory Risk Factors Spillover risk Sudan ebolavirus Zaire ebolavirus
Title	Spatial risks of Orthoebolavirus spillover vary based on outbreak type
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