Climate change impact on extreme precipitation and peak flood magnitude and frequency: observations from CMIP6 and hydrological models

Changes in climate intensity and frequency, including extreme events, heavy and intense rainfall, have the greatest impact on water resource management and flood risk management. Significant changes in air temperature, precipitation, and humidity are expected in future due to climate change. The inf...

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Vydáno v:	Natural hazards (Dordrecht) Ročník 111; číslo 3; s. 2649 - 2679
Hlavní autoři:	Meresa, Hadush, Tischbein, Bernhard, Mekonnen, Tewodros
Médium:	Journal Article
Jazyk:	angličtina
Vydáno:	Dordrecht Springer Netherlands 01.04.2022 Springer Nature B.V
Témata:	Air temperature Annual precipitation Atmospheric precipitations Bias Catchments Change agents Civil Engineering Climate Climate change Climate change influences Climate models Discrepancies Earth and Environmental Science Earth Sciences Environmental impact Environmental Management Environmental risk Event management Extreme weather Flood control Flood frequency Flood hazards Flood magnitude Flood management Flood risk Floods Frequency analysis Frequency distribution Geophysics/Geodesy Geotechnical Engineering & Applied Earth Sciences Hazards Heavy rainfall High flow Hydrogeology Hydrologic models Hydrologic observations Hydrology Magnitude Methods Modelling Natural Hazards Original Paper Parameters Peak floods Precipitation Quantiles Rain Rainfall Resource management Risk management Risk reduction River discharge Uncertainty Water policy Water resources Water resources management Water supply Watersheds Impact CMIP6 Bias correction Hydrology Extremes Uncertainty Model structure
ISSN:	0921-030X, 1573-0840
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Abstract	Changes in climate intensity and frequency, including extreme events, heavy and intense rainfall, have the greatest impact on water resource management and flood risk management. Significant changes in air temperature, precipitation, and humidity are expected in future due to climate change. The influence of climate change on flood hazards is subject to considerable uncertainty that comes from the climate model discrepancies, climate bias correction methods, flood frequency distribution, and hydrological model parameters. These factors play a crucial role in flood risk planning and extreme event management. With the advent of the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project Phase 6, flood managers and water resource planners are interested to know how changes in catchment flood risk are expected to alter relative to previous assessments. We examine catchment-based projected changes in flood quantiles and extreme high flow events for Awash catchments. Conceptual hydrological models (HBV, SMART, NAM and HYMOD), three downscaling techniques (EQM, DQM, and SQF), and an ensemble of hydrological parameter sets were used to examine changes in peak flood magnitude and frequency under climate change in the mid and end of the century. The result shows that projected annual extreme precipitation and flood quantiles could increase substantially in the next several decades in the selected catchments. The associated uncertainty in future flood hazards was quantified using aggregated variance decomposition and confirms that climate change is the dominant factor in Akaki (C2) and Awash Hombole (C5) catchments, whereas in Awash Bello (C4) and Kela (C3) catchments bias correction types is dominate, and Awash Kuntura (C1) both climate models and bias correction methods are essential factors. For the peak flow quantiles, climate models and hydrologic models are two main sources of uncertainty (31% and 18%, respectively). In contrast, the role of hydrological parameters to the aggregated uncertainty of changes in peak flow hazard variable is relatively small (5%), whereas the flood frequency contribution is much higher than the hydrologic model parameters. These results provide useful knowledge for policy-relevant flood indices, water resources and flood risk control and for studies related to uncertainty associated with peak flood magnitude and frequency.
AbstractList	Changes in climate intensity and frequency, including extreme events, heavy and intense rainfall, have the greatest impact on water resource management and flood risk management. Significant changes in air temperature, precipitation, and humidity are expected in future due to climate change. The influence of climate change on flood hazards is subject to considerable uncertainty that comes from the climate model discrepancies, climate bias correction methods, flood frequency distribution, and hydrological model parameters. These factors play a crucial role in flood risk planning and extreme event management. With the advent of the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project Phase 6, flood managers and water resource planners are interested to know how changes in catchment flood risk are expected to alter relative to previous assessments. We examine catchment-based projected changes in flood quantiles and extreme high flow events for Awash catchments. Conceptual hydrological models (HBV, SMART, NAM and HYMOD), three downscaling techniques (EQM, DQM, and SQF), and an ensemble of hydrological parameter sets were used to examine changes in peak flood magnitude and frequency under climate change in the mid and end of the century. The result shows that projected annual extreme precipitation and flood quantiles could increase substantially in the next several decades in the selected catchments. The associated uncertainty in future flood hazards was quantified using aggregated variance decomposition and confirms that climate change is the dominant factor in Akaki (C2) and Awash Hombole (C5) catchments, whereas in Awash Bello (C4) and Kela (C3) catchments bias correction types is dominate, and Awash Kuntura (C1) both climate models and bias correction methods are essential factors. For the peak flow quantiles, climate models and hydrologic models are two main sources of uncertainty (31% and 18%, respectively). In contrast, the role of hydrological parameters to the aggregated uncertainty of changes in peak flow hazard variable is relatively small (5%), whereas the flood frequency contribution is much higher than the hydrologic model parameters. These results provide useful knowledge for policy-relevant flood indices, water resources and flood risk control and for studies related to uncertainty associated with peak flood magnitude and frequency.
Author	Mekonnen, Tewodros Tischbein, Bernhard Meresa, Hadush
Author_xml	– sequence: 1 givenname: Hadush surname: Meresa fullname: Meresa, Hadush email: kidane.hadush@gmail.com organization: Ecology and Natural Resources, Center for Development Research, University of Bonn, Ethiopian Construction Design and Supervision Work Corporation – sequence: 2 givenname: Bernhard surname: Tischbein fullname: Tischbein, Bernhard organization: Ecology and Natural Resources, Center for Development Research, University of Bonn – sequence: 3 givenname: Tewodros surname: Mekonnen fullname: Mekonnen, Tewodros organization: Ethiopian Construction Design and Supervision Work Corporation
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SubjectTerms	Air temperature Annual precipitation Atmospheric precipitations Bias Catchments Change agents Civil Engineering Climate Climate change Climate change influences Climate models Discrepancies Earth and Environmental Science Earth Sciences Environmental impact Environmental Management Environmental risk Event management Extreme weather Flood control Flood frequency Flood hazards Flood magnitude Flood management Flood risk Floods Frequency analysis Frequency distribution Geophysics/Geodesy Geotechnical Engineering & Applied Earth Sciences Hazards Heavy rainfall High flow Hydrogeology Hydrologic models Hydrologic observations Hydrology Magnitude Methods Modelling Natural Hazards Original Paper Parameters Peak floods Precipitation Quantiles Rain Rainfall Resource management Risk management Risk reduction River discharge Uncertainty Water policy Water resources Water resources management Water supply Watersheds
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Title	Climate change impact on extreme precipitation and peak flood magnitude and frequency: observations from CMIP6 and hydrological models
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