An ensemble approach to quantify global mean sea-level rise over the 20th century from tide gauge reconstructions

We present an ensemble approach to quantify historical global mean sea-level (GMSL) rise based on tide gauge reconstructions. This approach combines the maximum internal uncertainty across the ensemble with an estimate of structural uncertainty to provide a conservative estimate of the total uncerta...

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Published in:	Environmental research letters Vol. 16; no. 4; p. 44043
Main Authors:	Palmer, M D, Domingues, C M, Slangen, A B A, Boeira Dias, F
Format:	Journal Article
Language:	English
Published:	Bristol IOP Publishing 01.04.2021
Subjects:	20th century Climate change climate change assessment climate change observations Deltas Environmental assessment Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change open climate campaign Sea level Sea level rise tide gauge reconstructions Uncertainty uncertainty quantification
ISSN:	1748-9326, 1748-9326
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Abstract	We present an ensemble approach to quantify historical global mean sea-level (GMSL) rise based on tide gauge reconstructions. This approach combines the maximum internal uncertainty across the ensemble with an estimate of structural uncertainty to provide a conservative estimate of the total uncertainty. Comparisons of GMSL rise over the 20th century based on deltas and linear trends (and their respective uncertainties) are consistent with past Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change assessments and show good agreement with satellite altimeter timeseries. Sensitivity tests show that our estimates of GMSL rise are robust to the choice of reference period and central estimate timeseries. The methods proposed in this study are generic and could be easily applied to other global or regional climate change indicators.
AbstractList	We present an ensemble approach to quantify historical global mean sea-level (GMSL) rise based on tide gauge reconstructions. This approach combines the maximum internal uncertainty across the ensemble with an estimate of structural uncertainty to provide a conservative estimate of the total uncertainty. Comparisons of GMSL rise over the 20th century based on deltas and linear trends (and their respective uncertainties) are consistent with past Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change assessments and show good agreement with satellite altimeter timeseries. Sensitivity tests show that our estimates of GMSL rise are robust to the choice of reference period and central estimate timeseries. The methods proposed in this study are generic and could be easily applied to other global or regional climate change indicators.
Author	Domingues, C M Boeira Dias, F Palmer, M D Slangen, A B A
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SubjectTerms	20th century Climate change climate change assessment climate change observations Deltas Environmental assessment Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change open climate campaign Sea level Sea level rise tide gauge reconstructions Uncertainty uncertainty quantification
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Title	An ensemble approach to quantify global mean sea-level rise over the 20th century from tide gauge reconstructions
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