An ensemble approach to quantify global mean sea-level rise over the 20th century from tide gauge reconstructions

We present an ensemble approach to quantify historical global mean sea-level (GMSL) rise based on tide gauge reconstructions. This approach combines the maximum internal uncertainty across the ensemble with an estimate of structural uncertainty to provide a conservative estimate of the total uncerta...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Environmental research letters Vol. 16; no. 4; p. 44043
Main Authors: Palmer, M D, Domingues, C M, Slangen, A B A, Boeira Dias, F
Format: Journal Article
Language:English
Published: Bristol IOP Publishing 01.04.2021
Subjects:
20th century
Climate change
climate change assessment
climate change observations
Deltas
Environmental assessment
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
open climate campaign
Sea level
Sea level rise
tide gauge reconstructions
Uncertainty
uncertainty quantification
ISSN:1748-9326, 1748-9326
Online Access:Get full text
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Summary:We present an ensemble approach to quantify historical global mean sea-level (GMSL) rise based on tide gauge reconstructions. This approach combines the maximum internal uncertainty across the ensemble with an estimate of structural uncertainty to provide a conservative estimate of the total uncertainty. Comparisons of GMSL rise over the 20th century based on deltas and linear trends (and their respective uncertainties) are consistent with past Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change assessments and show good agreement with satellite altimeter timeseries. Sensitivity tests show that our estimates of GMSL rise are robust to the choice of reference period and central estimate timeseries. The methods proposed in this study are generic and could be easily applied to other global or regional climate change indicators.
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ISSN:1748-9326
1748-9326
DOI:10.1088/1748-9326/abdaec