Predicting and optimization of energy consumption using system dynamics-fuzzy multiple objective programming in world heritage areas

Energy consumption and efficiency are important in regional low-carbon economic development and environmental protection. This paper provides a system dynamics and fuzzy multi-objective programming integrated approach for the prediction of energy consumption and CO2 emissions at a regional level. Fi...

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Vydané v:Energy (Oxford) Ročník 49; číslo 1; s. 19 - 31
Hlavní autori: Wu, Zhibin, Xu, Jiuping
Médium: Journal Article
Jazyk:English
Vydavateľské údaje: Kidlington Elsevier Ltd 01.01.2013
Elsevier
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ISSN:0360-5442
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Abstract Energy consumption and efficiency are important in regional low-carbon economic development and environmental protection. This paper provides a system dynamics and fuzzy multi-objective programming integrated approach for the prediction of energy consumption and CO2 emissions at a regional level. First, a general system dynamics model is constructed to analyze an economy-energy system. To deal with the uncertainties and optimize the parameters in the system, a fuzzy multiple objective programming model is used. This decision support model is then applied to predict the energy consumption of a world heritage area in China during 2010–2020. The results reveal that the energy consumption and CO2 emissions increase dramatically with rapid economic growth. In the scenario herein considered, which is based on the proposed optimization model, a 19.32% reduction was found in the energy intensity decreases from 0.88 tce/104 RMB to 0.71 tce/104 RMB, and a 23.26% reduction in the CO2 emission intensity, from 2.15 t/104 RMB to 1.65 t/104 RMB. Policy suggestions such as adjusting the industrial structure, enhancing local hydro-power and renewable energy and increasing investment in energy technology and efficiency are indicated for the promotion of a low-carbon oriented economy in world heritage areas. ► A general system dynamics model is constructed to analyze an economy-energy system. ► A FMOP approach is presented to optimize the parameters in the system. ► The decision support model is applied to predict the energy consumption of a world heritage area in China. ► Suggestions are given to promote a low-carbon oriented economy in world heritage areas.
AbstractList Energy consumption and efficiency are important in regional low-carbon economic development and environmental protection. This paper provides a system dynamics and fuzzy multi-objective programming integrated approach for the prediction of energy consumption and CO sub(2) emissions at a regional level. First, a general system dynamics model is constructed to analyze an economy-energy system. To deal with the uncertainties and optimize the parameters in the system, a fuzzy multiple objective programming model is used. This decision support model is then applied to predict the energy consumption of a world heritage area in China during 2010-2020. The results reveal that the energy consumption and CO sub(2) emissions increase dramatically with rapid economic growth. In the scenario herein considered, which is based on the proposed optimization model, a 19.32% reduction was found in the energy intensity decreases from 0.88 tce/104 RMB to 0.71 tce/104 RMB, and a 23.26% reduction in the CO sub(2) emission intensity, from 2.15 t/104 RMB to 1.65 t/104 RMB. Policy suggestions such as adjusting the industrial structure, enhancing local hydro-power and renewable energy and increasing investment in energy technology and efficiency are indicated for the promotion of a low-carbon oriented economy in world heritage areas.
Energy consumption and efficiency are important in regional low-carbon economic development and environmental protection. This paper provides a system dynamics and fuzzy multi-objective programming integrated approach for the prediction of energy consumption and CO₂ emissions at a regional level. First, a general system dynamics model is constructed to analyze an economy-energy system. To deal with the uncertainties and optimize the parameters in the system, a fuzzy multiple objective programming model is used. This decision support model is then applied to predict the energy consumption of a world heritage area in China during 2010–2020. The results reveal that the energy consumption and CO₂ emissions increase dramatically with rapid economic growth. In the scenario herein considered, which is based on the proposed optimization model, a 19.32% reduction was found in the energy intensity decreases from 0.88 tce/10⁴ RMB to 0.71 tce/10⁴ RMB, and a 23.26% reduction in the CO₂ emission intensity, from 2.15 t/10⁴ RMB to 1.65 t/10⁴ RMB. Policy suggestions such as adjusting the industrial structure, enhancing local hydro-power and renewable energy and increasing investment in energy technology and efficiency are indicated for the promotion of a low-carbon oriented economy in world heritage areas.
Energy consumption and efficiency are important in regional low-carbon economic development and environmental protection. This paper provides a system dynamics and fuzzy multi-objective programming integrated approach for the prediction of energy consumption and CO2 emissions at a regional level. First, a general system dynamics model is constructed to analyze an economy-energy system. To deal with the uncertainties and optimize the parameters in the system, a fuzzy multiple objective programming model is used. This decision support model is then applied to predict the energy consumption of a world heritage area in China during 2010–2020. The results reveal that the energy consumption and CO2 emissions increase dramatically with rapid economic growth. In the scenario herein considered, which is based on the proposed optimization model, a 19.32% reduction was found in the energy intensity decreases from 0.88 tce/104 RMB to 0.71 tce/104 RMB, and a 23.26% reduction in the CO2 emission intensity, from 2.15 t/104 RMB to 1.65 t/104 RMB. Policy suggestions such as adjusting the industrial structure, enhancing local hydro-power and renewable energy and increasing investment in energy technology and efficiency are indicated for the promotion of a low-carbon oriented economy in world heritage areas. ► A general system dynamics model is constructed to analyze an economy-energy system. ► A FMOP approach is presented to optimize the parameters in the system. ► The decision support model is applied to predict the energy consumption of a world heritage area in China. ► Suggestions are given to promote a low-carbon oriented economy in world heritage areas.
Energy consumption and efficiency are important in regional low-carbon economic development and environmental protection. This paper provides a system dynamics and fuzzy multi-objective programming integrated approach for the prediction of energy consumption and CO₂ emissions at a regional level. First, a general system dynamics model is constructed to analyze an economy-energy system. To deal with the uncertainties and optimize the parameters in the system, a fuzzy multiple objective programming model is used. This decision support model is then applied to predict the energy consumption of a world heritage area in China during 2010–2020. The results reveal that the energy consumption and CO₂ emissions increase dramatically with rapid economic growth. In the scenario herein considered, which is based on the proposed optimization model, a 19.32% reduction was found in the energy intensity decreases from 0.88 tce/10⁴ RMB to 0.71 tce/10⁴ RMB, and a 23.26% reduction in the CO₂ emission intensity, from 2.15 t/10⁴ RMB to 1.65 t/10⁴ RMB. Policy suggestions such as adjusting the industrial structure, enhancing local hydro-power and renewable energy and increasing investment in energy technology and efficiency are indicated for the promotion of a low-carbon oriented economy in world heritage areas.
Author Wu, Zhibin
Xu, Jiuping
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Issue 1
Keywords Energy consumption
Industrial structure
System dynamics
CO2 emissions
Fuzzy multi-objective programming
Electric power consumption
Dynamical system
Optimization
Multiobjective programming
Language English
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Snippet Energy consumption and efficiency are important in regional low-carbon economic development and environmental protection. This paper provides a system dynamics...
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SubjectTerms Applied sciences
carbon dioxide
China
CO2 emissions
decision support systems
economic development
emissions factor
Energy
Energy consumption
Energy. Thermal use of fuels
environmental protection
Exact sciences and technology
Fuzzy multi-objective programming
greenhouse gas emissions
Industrial structure
issues and policy
prediction
System dynamics
water power
Title Predicting and optimization of energy consumption using system dynamics-fuzzy multiple objective programming in world heritage areas
URI https://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.energy.2012.10.030
https://www.proquest.com/docview/1272735812
https://www.proquest.com/docview/2000070231
Volume 49
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