Drivers of European Transition Countries' External Current Accounts: An LSDVC Approach

The sizable and persistent external imbalances of European transition countries have attracted surprisingly little empirical attention. Although increasing external account deficits may be accompanied by accelerated growth rates, they also come with substantial risks. This article identifies and com...

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Vydáno v:Eastern European economics Ročník 54; číslo 5; s. 405 - 436
Hlavní autoři: Stojkov, Aleksandar, Warin, Thierry
Médium: Journal Article
Jazyk:angličtina
Vydáno: Abingdon Routledge 02.09.2016
Taylor & Francis Group, LLC
Taylor & Francis Ltd
Témata:
Bias
Consumption
consumption and investment smoothing
current account
Current accounts
Dummy
Economic crisis
Economic theory
External effects
Globalization
intertemporal trade
Investments
Panel data
Studies
Transition economies
Eastern Europe
Europe
ISSN:0012-8775, 1557-9298
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Abstract The sizable and persistent external imbalances of European transition countries have attracted surprisingly little empirical attention. Although increasing external account deficits may be accompanied by accelerated growth rates, they also come with substantial risks. This article identifies and compares the main determinants of the widening and persistent external current account deficits of fifteen European transition countries vis-à-vis the EU-15 countries. It assesses the validity of the intertemporal approach of current account determination through bias-corrected least-squares dummy variable models (using three dynamic panel techniques) and data for thirty European countries during the 1994-2013 period. It concludes that the external accounts of European transition countries have been counter-cyclical and largely driven by faster growth of government consumption and investment as compared to their trading partners. After the outbreak of the global economic crisis, their external accounts improved due to lower private consumption and a significant rise in precautionary savings.
AbstractList The sizable and persistent external imbalances of European transition countries have attracted surprisingly little empirical attention. Although increasing external account deficits may be accompanied by accelerated growth rates, they also come with substantial risks. This article identifies and compares the main determinants of the widening and persistent external current account deficits of fifteen European transition countries vis-a-vis the EU-15 countries. It assesses the validity of the intertemporal approach of current account determination through bias-corrected least-squares dummy variable models (using three dynamic panel techniques) and data for thirty European countries during the 1994-2013 period. It concludes that the external accounts of European transition countries have been counter-cyclical and largely driven by faster growth of government consumption and investment as compared to their trading partners. After the outbreak of the global economic crisis, their external accounts improved due to lower private consumption and a significant rise in precautionary savings.
The sizable and persistent external imbalances of European transition countries have attracted surprisingly little empirical attention. Although increasing external account deficits may be accompanied by accelerated growth rates, they also come with substantial risks. This article identifies and compares the main determinants of the widening and persistent external current account deficits of fifteen European transition countries vis-à-vis the EU-15 countries. It assesses the validity of the intertemporal approach of current account determination through bias-corrected least-squares dummy variable models (using three dynamic panel techniques) and data for thirty European countries during the 1994–2013 period. It concludes that the external accounts of European transition countries have been counter-cyclical and largely driven by faster growth of government consumption and investment as compared to their trading partners. After the outbreak of the global economic crisis, their external accounts improved due to lower private consumption and a significant rise in precautionary savings.
Author Stojkov, Aleksandar
Warin, Thierry
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SubjectTerms Bias
Consumption
consumption and investment smoothing
current account
Current accounts
Dummy
Economic crisis
Economic theory
External effects
Globalization
intertemporal trade
Investments
Panel data
Studies
Transition economies
Title Drivers of European Transition Countries' External Current Accounts: An LSDVC Approach
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