Change in population structure, policy adjustment, and China’s public pension sustainability
This study assesses the impact of population structure changes and policy adjustment on public pension sustainability. The analysis is based on actuarial models for pension income, expenditure, and accumulated balance, assessed under varying scenarios. Based on the results, China’s pension financial...
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| Vydané v: | PloS one Ročník 20; číslo 9; s. e0331739 |
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| Hlavní autori: | , , |
| Médium: | Journal Article |
| Jazyk: | English |
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2025
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| ISSN: | 1932-6203, 1932-6203 |
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| Abstract | This study assesses the impact of population structure changes and policy adjustment on public pension sustainability. The analysis is based on actuarial models for pension income, expenditure, and accumulated balance, assessed under varying scenarios. Based on the results, China’s pension financial situation will be in deficit by around 2028, with accumulated deficit potentially as high as RMB 147,411.037 billion in 2050 without population policy adjustment. Second, matching the fertility level with replacement level will only slightly ease the pension financial situation after 2041 and cannot change the deficit trend or the time of first appearance of deficit. The short-term situation may worsen slightly. Third, delaying the legal retirement age to 65 years significantly improves the pension financial situation and ensures no accumulated pension deficit before 2050. Lastly, although increasing economic growth and reducing pension growth can significantly improve the pension financial situation, if the accumulated pension deficit does not appear before 2050, the pension growth rate should be controlled below 0 and economic growth must double in future. In conclusion, to improve the financial status of pensions and ensure elderly welfare, we should focus on reducing pension growth, increasing economic growth, and postponing the statutory retirement age. |
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| AbstractList | This study assesses the impact of population structure changes and policy adjustment on public pension sustainability. The analysis is based on actuarial models for pension income, expenditure, and accumulated balance, assessed under varying scenarios. Based on the results, China’s pension financial situation will be in deficit by around 2028, with accumulated deficit potentially as high as RMB 147,411.037 billion in 2050 without population policy adjustment. Second, matching the fertility level with replacement level will only slightly ease the pension financial situation after 2041 and cannot change the deficit trend or the time of first appearance of deficit. The short-term situation may worsen slightly. Third, delaying the legal retirement age to 65 years significantly improves the pension financial situation and ensures no accumulated pension deficit before 2050. Lastly, although increasing economic growth and reducing pension growth can significantly improve the pension financial situation, if the accumulated pension deficit does not appear before 2050, the pension growth rate should be controlled below 0 and economic growth must double in future. In conclusion, to improve the financial status of pensions and ensure elderly welfare, we should focus on reducing pension growth, increasing economic growth, and postponing the statutory retirement age. This study assesses the impact of population structure changes and policy adjustment on public pension sustainability. The analysis is based on actuarial models for pension income, expenditure, and accumulated balance, assessed under varying scenarios. Based on the results, China's pension financial situation will be in deficit by around 2028, with accumulated deficit potentially as high as RMB 147,411.037 billion in 2050 without population policy adjustment. Second, matching the fertility level with replacement level will only slightly ease the pension financial situation after 2041 and cannot change the deficit trend or the time of first appearance of deficit. The short-term situation may worsen slightly. Third, delaying the legal retirement age to 65 years significantly improves the pension financial situation and ensures no accumulated pension deficit before 2050. Lastly, although increasing economic growth and reducing pension growth can significantly improve the pension financial situation, if the accumulated pension deficit does not appear before 2050, the pension growth rate should be controlled below 0 and economic growth must double in future. In conclusion, to improve the financial status of pensions and ensure elderly welfare, we should focus on reducing pension growth, increasing economic growth, and postponing the statutory retirement age.This study assesses the impact of population structure changes and policy adjustment on public pension sustainability. The analysis is based on actuarial models for pension income, expenditure, and accumulated balance, assessed under varying scenarios. Based on the results, China's pension financial situation will be in deficit by around 2028, with accumulated deficit potentially as high as RMB 147,411.037 billion in 2050 without population policy adjustment. Second, matching the fertility level with replacement level will only slightly ease the pension financial situation after 2041 and cannot change the deficit trend or the time of first appearance of deficit. The short-term situation may worsen slightly. Third, delaying the legal retirement age to 65 years significantly improves the pension financial situation and ensures no accumulated pension deficit before 2050. Lastly, although increasing economic growth and reducing pension growth can significantly improve the pension financial situation, if the accumulated pension deficit does not appear before 2050, the pension growth rate should be controlled below 0 and economic growth must double in future. In conclusion, to improve the financial status of pensions and ensure elderly welfare, we should focus on reducing pension growth, increasing economic growth, and postponing the statutory retirement age. |
| Author | Meng, Jia Fan, Weiqiang Yang, Hualei |
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| BackLink | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/41004478$$D View this record in MEDLINE/PubMed |
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| Cites_doi | 10.2753/EEE0012-8775440403 10.1111/j.1728-4457.2007.00168.x 10.1016/j.chieco.2014.05.014 10.1016/0890-4065(93)90022-C 10.1016/j.jmacro.2016.03.005 10.1086/654752 10.1086/296629 10.1007/s13209-009-0006-7 10.1111/j.1728-4457.2004.00001.x 10.1111/j.1475-5890.2005.00003.x 10.1108/PR-04-2013-0059 10.1080/1406099X.2017.1318000 10.1007/s10797-009-9114-3 10.2307/2137807 10.3389/fpubh.2025.1533922 10.1111/j.1468-0297.2006.01100.x 10.1111/1467-999X.00158 |
| ContentType | Journal Article |
| Copyright | Copyright: © 2025 Fan et al. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited. 2025 Fan et al. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License: http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ (the “License”), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited. Notwithstanding the ProQuest Terms and Conditions, you may use this content in accordance with the terms of the License. 2025 Fan et al. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License: http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ (the “License”), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited. Notwithstanding the ProQuest Terms and Conditions, you may use this content in accordance with the terms of the License. |
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| SubjectTerms | Aged Aging China Councils Economic development Economic growth Economics Employees Expenditures Female Fertility GDP Gross Domestic Product Growth rate Humans Income Male Middle Aged Pension funds Pensions - statistics & numerical data Population Population Dynamics Population policy Population structure Public Policy Replacement level Researchers Retirees Retirement Retirement - economics Sustainability |
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| Title | Change in population structure, policy adjustment, and China’s public pension sustainability |
| URI | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/41004478 https://www.proquest.com/docview/3254877974 https://www.proquest.com/docview/3254921051 https://doaj.org/article/594d08e85ee040bf99745a91b2cfa57d http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0331739 |
| Volume | 20 |
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