Estimating and comparing time-dependent areas under receiver operating characteristic curves for censored event times with competing risks

The area under the time‐dependent ROC curve (AUC) may be used to quantify the ability of a marker to predict the onset of a clinical outcome in the future. For survival analysis with competing risks, two alternative definitions of the specificity may be proposed depending of the way to deal with sub...

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Vydáno v:	Statistics in medicine Ročník 32; číslo 30; s. 5381 - 5397
Hlavní autoři:	Blanche, Paul, Dartigues, Jean-François, Jacqmin-Gadda, Hélène
Médium:	Journal Article
Jazyk:	angličtina
Vydáno:	England Blackwell Publishing Ltd 30.12.2013 Wiley Subscription Services, Inc
Témata:	Aged Aged, 80 and over Area Under Curve AUC Biomarkers - analysis Comparative studies competing risks Computer Simulation Confidence Confidence Intervals Data Interpretation, Statistical Dementia - diagnosis discrimination Estimating techniques France Humans inverse probability of censoring weighting Predictive Value of Tests prognosis Psychological Tests ROC Curve Simulation Survival analysis France competing risks discrimination survival analysis prognosis inverse probability of censoring weighting AUC
ISSN:	0277-6715, 1097-0258, 1097-0258
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Shrnutí:	The area under the time‐dependent ROC curve (AUC) may be used to quantify the ability of a marker to predict the onset of a clinical outcome in the future. For survival analysis with competing risks, two alternative definitions of the specificity may be proposed depending of the way to deal with subjects who undergo the competing events. In this work, we propose nonparametric inverse probability of censoring weighting estimators of the AUC corresponding to these two definitions, and we study their asymptotic properties. We derive confidence intervals and test statistics for the equality of the AUCs obtained with two markers measured on the same subjects. A simulation study is performed to investigate the finite sample behaviour of the test and the confidence intervals. The method is applied to the French cohort PAQUID to compare the abilities of two psychometric tests to predict dementia onset in the elderly accounting for death without dementia competing risk. The ‘timeROC’ R package is provided to make the methodology easily usable. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
Bibliografie:	Supporting info item ark:/67375/WNG-B3CZS89F-Q ArticleID:SIM5958 istex:041729B1060180F5535FA9821A95366F89D233F3 SourceType-Scholarly Journals-1 ObjectType-Feature-1 content type line 14 ObjectType-Article-2 content type line 23
ISSN:	0277-6715 1097-0258 1097-0258
DOI:	10.1002/sim.5958