A comparison of fisheries biological reference points estimated from temperature-specific multi-species and single-species climate-enhanced stock assessment models

Multi-species statistical catch at age models (MSCAA) can quantify interacting effects of climate and fisheries harvest on species populations, and evaluate management trade-offs for fisheries that target several species in a food web. We modified an existing MSCAA model to include temperature-speci...

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Vydáno v:	Deep-sea research. Part II, Topical studies in oceanography Ročník 134; s. 360 - 378
Hlavní autoři:	Holsman, Kirstin K., Ianelli, James, Aydin, Kerim, Punt, André E., Moffitt, Elizabeth A.
Médium:	Journal Article
Jazyk:	angličtina
Vydáno:	Elsevier Ltd 01.12.2016
Témata:	Alaska Bering Sea Atheresthes stomias Bioenergetics Biological reference points Biomass Climate Estimates Fisheries Gadus macrocephalus Groundfish Management Marine Multi-species model Pleuronectiformes Populations Predator prey Raw materials Stock assessment Temperature effects USA Biological reference points USA Alaska Bering Sea Multi-species model Bioenergetics Groundfish Fisheries Stock assessment Predator prey
ISSN:	0967-0645, 1879-0100
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Abstract	Multi-species statistical catch at age models (MSCAA) can quantify interacting effects of climate and fisheries harvest on species populations, and evaluate management trade-offs for fisheries that target several species in a food web. We modified an existing MSCAA model to include temperature-specific growth and predation rates and applied the modified model to three fish species, walleye pollock (Gadus chalcogrammus), Pacific cod (Gadus macrocephalus) and arrowtooth flounder (Atheresthes stomias), from the eastern Bering Sea (USA). We fit the model to data from 1979 through 2012, with and without trophic interactions and temperature effects, and use projections to derive single- and multi-species biological reference points (BRP and MBRP, respectively) for fisheries management. The multi-species model achieved a higher over-all goodness of fit to the data (i.e. lower negative log-likelihood) for pollock and Pacific cod. Variability from water temperature typically resulted in 5–15% changes in spawning, survey, and total biomasses, but did not strongly impact recruitment estimates or mortality. Despite this, inclusion of temperature in projections did have a strong effect on BRPs, including recommended yield, which were higher in single-species models for Pacific cod and arrowtooth flounder that included temperature compared to the same models without temperature effects. While the temperature-driven multi-species model resulted in higher yield MBPRs for arrowtooth flounder than the same model without temperature, we did not observe the same patterns in multi-species models for pollock and Pacific cod, where variability between harvest scenarios and predation greatly exceeded temperature-driven variability in yield MBRPs. Annual predation on juvenile pollock (primarily cannibalism) in the multi-species model was 2–5 times the annual harvest of adult fish in the system, thus predation represents a strong control on population dynamics that exceeds temperature-driven changes to growth and is attenuated through harvest-driven reductions in predator populations. Additionally, although we observed differences in spawning biomasses at the accepted biological catch (ABC) proxy between harvest scenarios and single- and multi-species models, discrepancies in spawning stock biomass estimates did not translate to large differences in yield. We found that multi-species models produced higher estimates of combined yield for aggregate maximum sustainable yield (MSY) targets than single species models, but were more conservative than single-species models when individual MSY targets were used, with the exception of scenarios where minimum biomass thresholds were imposed. Collectively our results suggest that climate and trophic drivers can interact to affect MBRPs, but for prey species with high predation rates, trophic- and management-driven changes may exceed direct effects of temperature on growth and predation. Additionally, MBRPs are not inherently more conservative than single-species BRPs. This framework provides a basis for the application of MSCAA models for tactical ecosystem-based fisheries management decisions under changing climate conditions.
AbstractList	Multi-species statistical catch at age models (MSCAA) can quantify interacting effects of climate and fisheries harvest on species populations, and evaluate management trade-offs for fisheries that target several species in a food web. We modified an existing MSCAA model to include temperature-specific growth and predation rates and applied the modified model to three fish species, walleye pollock (Gadus chalcogrammus), Pacific cod (Gadus macrocephalus) and arrowtooth flounder (Atheresthes stomias), from the eastern Bering Sea (USA). We fit the model to data from 1979 through 2012, with and without trophic interactions and temperature effects, and use projections to derive single- and multi-species biological reference points (BRP and MBRP, respectively) for fisheries management. The multi-species model achieved a higher over-all goodness of fit to the data (i.e. lower negative log-likelihood) for pollock and Pacific cod. Variability from water temperature typically resulted in 5–15% changes in spawning, survey, and total biomasses, but did not strongly impact recruitment estimates or mortality. Despite this, inclusion of temperature in projections did have a strong effect on BRPs, including recommended yield, which were higher in single-species models for Pacific cod and arrowtooth flounder that included temperature compared to the same models without temperature effects. While the temperature-driven multi-species model resulted in higher yield MBPRs for arrowtooth flounder than the same model without temperature, we did not observe the same patterns in multi-species models for pollock and Pacific cod, where variability between harvest scenarios and predation greatly exceeded temperature-driven variability in yield MBRPs. Annual predation on juvenile pollock (primarily cannibalism) in the multi-species model was 2–5 times the annual harvest of adult fish in the system, thus predation represents a strong control on population dynamics that exceeds temperature-driven changes to growth and is attenuated through harvest-driven reductions in predator populations. Additionally, although we observed differences in spawning biomasses at the accepted biological catch (ABC) proxy between harvest scenarios and single- and multi-species models, discrepancies in spawning stock biomass estimates did not translate to large differences in yield. We found that multi-species models produced higher estimates of combined yield for aggregate maximum sustainable yield (MSY) targets than single species models, but were more conservative than single-species models when individual MSY targets were used, with the exception of scenarios where minimum biomass thresholds were imposed. Collectively our results suggest that climate and trophic drivers can interact to affect MBRPs, but for prey species with high predation rates, trophic- and management-driven changes may exceed direct effects of temperature on growth and predation. Additionally, MBRPs are not inherently more conservative than single-species BRPs. This framework provides a basis for the application of MSCAA models for tactical ecosystem-based fisheries management decisions under changing climate conditions.
Author	Ianelli, James Punt, André E. Moffitt, Elizabeth A. Aydin, Kerim Holsman, Kirstin K.
Author_xml	– sequence: 1 givenname: Kirstin K. surname: Holsman fullname: Holsman, Kirstin K. email: kirstin.holsman@noaa.gov organization: Alaska Fisheries Science Center, National Marine Fisheries Service, NOAA, 7600 Sand Point Way N.E., Building 4, Seattle, Washington 98115, USA – sequence: 2 givenname: James surname: Ianelli fullname: Ianelli, James email: jim.ianelli@noaa.gov organization: Alaska Fisheries Science Center, National Marine Fisheries Service, NOAA, 7600 Sand Point Way N.E., Building 4, Seattle, Washington 98115, USA – sequence: 3 givenname: Kerim surname: Aydin fullname: Aydin, Kerim email: kerim.aydin@noaa.gov organization: Alaska Fisheries Science Center, National Marine Fisheries Service, NOAA, 7600 Sand Point Way N.E., Building 4, Seattle, Washington 98115, USA – sequence: 4 givenname: André E. surname: Punt fullname: Punt, André E. email: aepunt@uw.edu organization: University of Washington School of Aquatic and Fisheries Sciences, 1122 NE Boat St., Seattle, WA 98105, USA – sequence: 5 givenname: Elizabeth A. surname: Moffitt fullname: Moffitt, Elizabeth A. email: elizabeth@seastarscientificediting.com organization: University of Washington School of Aquatic and Fisheries Sciences, 1122 NE Boat St., Seattle, WA 98105, USA
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SubjectTerms	Alaska Bering Sea Atheresthes stomias Bioenergetics Biological reference points Biomass Climate Estimates Fisheries Gadus macrocephalus Groundfish Management Marine Multi-species model Pleuronectiformes Populations Predator prey Raw materials Stock assessment Temperature effects USA
Title	A comparison of fisheries biological reference points estimated from temperature-specific multi-species and single-species climate-enhanced stock assessment models
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