Projecting travelers into a world of self-driving vehicles: estimating travel behavior implications via a naturalistic experiment

Automated driving technologies are currently penetrating the market, and the coming fully autonomous cars will have far-reaching, yet largely unknown, implications. A critical unknown is the impact on traveler behavior, which in turn impacts sustainability, the economy, and wellbeing. Most behaviora...

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Vydané v:	Transportation (Dordrecht) Ročník 45; číslo 6; s. 1671 - 1685
Hlavní autori:	Harb, Mustapha, Xiao, Yu, Circella, Giovanni, Mokhtarian, Patricia L., Walker, Joan L.
Médium:	Journal Article
Jazyk:	English
Vydavateľské údaje:	New York Springer US 01.11.2018 Springer Nature B.V
Predmet:	Automation Automobiles Autonomous cars Autonomous vehicles Behavior Behavior change Behavior modification Collision avoidance Driving Driving ability Economic Geography Economics Economics and Finance Engineering Economics Experiments Human behavior Human factors Impact analysis Innovation/Technology Management Logistics Market entry Marketing Millennials Network analysis Occupancy Organization Regional/Spatial Science Retirees Retirement Simulators Travel Travel demand Well being Willingness to pay Naturalistic experiment Self-driving vehicles VMT Travel behavior Chauffeur
ISSN:	0049-4488, 1572-9435
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Abstract	Automated driving technologies are currently penetrating the market, and the coming fully autonomous cars will have far-reaching, yet largely unknown, implications. A critical unknown is the impact on traveler behavior, which in turn impacts sustainability, the economy, and wellbeing. Most behavioral studies, to date, either focus on safety and human factors (driving simulators; test beds), assume travel behavior implications (microsimulators; network analysis), or ask about hypothetical scenarios that are unfamiliar to the subjects (stated preference studies). Here we present a different approach, which is to use a naturalistic experiment to project people into a world of self-driving cars. We mimic potential life with a privately-owned self-driving vehicle by providing 60 h of free chauffeur service for each participating household for use within a 7-day period. We seek to understand the changes in travel behavior as the subjects adjust their travel and activities during the chauffeur week when, as in a self-driving vehicle, they are explicitly relieved of the driving task. In this first pilot application, our sample consisted of 13 subjects from the San Francisco Bay area, drawn from three cohorts: millennials, families, and retirees. We tracked each subject’s travel for 3 weeks (the chauffeur week, 1 week before and 1 week after) and conducted surveys and interviews. During the chauffeur week, we observed sizable increases in vehicle-miles traveled and number of trips, with a more pronounced increase in trips made in the evening and for longer distances and a substantial proportion of “zero-occupancy” vehicle-miles traveled.
AbstractList	Automated driving technologies are currently penetrating the market, and the coming fully autonomous cars will have far-reaching, yet largely unknown, implications. A critical unknown is the impact on traveler behavior, which in turn impacts sustainability, the economy, and wellbeing. Most behavioral studies, to date, either focus on safety and human factors (driving simulators; test beds), assume travel behavior implications (microsimulators; network analysis), or ask about hypothetical scenarios that are unfamiliar to the subjects (stated preference studies). Here we present a different approach, which is to use a naturalistic experiment to project people into a world of self-driving cars. We mimic potential life with a privately-owned self-driving vehicle by providing 60 h of free chauffeur service for each participating household for use within a 7-day period. We seek to understand the changes in travel behavior as the subjects adjust their travel and activities during the chauffeur week when, as in a self-driving vehicle, they are explicitly relieved of the driving task. In this first pilot application, our sample consisted of 13 subjects from the San Francisco Bay area, drawn from three cohorts: millennials, families, and retirees. We tracked each subject’s travel for 3 weeks (the chauffeur week, 1 week before and 1 week after) and conducted surveys and interviews. During the chauffeur week, we observed sizable increases in vehicle-miles traveled and number of trips, with a more pronounced increase in trips made in the evening and for longer distances and a substantial proportion of “zero-occupancy” vehicle-miles traveled. Automated driving technologies are currently penetrating the market, and the coming fully autonomous cars will have far-reaching, yet largely unknown, implications. A critical unknown is the impact on traveler behavior, which in turn impacts sustainability, the economy, and wellbeing. Most behavioral studies, to date, either focus on safety and human factors (driving simulators; test beds), assume travel behavior implications (microsimulators; network analysis), or ask about hypothetical scenarios that are unfamiliar to the subjects (stated preference studies). Here we present a different approach, which is to use a naturalistic experiment to project people into a world of self-driving cars. We mimic potential life with a privately-owned self-driving vehicle by providing 60 h of free chauffeur service for each participating household for use within a 7-day period. We seek to understand the changes in travel behavior as the subjects adjust their travel and activities during the chauffeur week when, as in a self-driving vehicle, they are explicitly relieved of the driving task. In this first pilot application, our sample consisted of 13 subjects from the San Francisco Bay area, drawn from three cohorts: millennials, families, and retirees. We tracked each subject’s travel for 3 weeks (the chauffeur week, 1 week before and 1 week after) and conducted surveys and interviews. During the chauffeur week, we observed sizable increases in vehicle-miles traveled and number of trips, with a more pronounced increase in trips made in the evening and for longer distances and a substantial proportion of “zero-occupancy” vehicle-miles traveled.
Author	Harb, Mustapha Xiao, Yu Mokhtarian, Patricia L. Circella, Giovanni Walker, Joan L.
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Cites_doi	10.1016/j.trc.2013.12.001 10.3141/2493-11 10.1016/j.trc.2017.03.003 10.1016/j.trpro.2017.05.281 10.1016/j.trc.2013.02.008 10.3141/2665-01
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Copyright	Springer Science+Business Media, LLC, part of Springer Nature 2018 Transportation is a copyright of Springer, (2018). All Rights Reserved.
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SubjectTerms	Automation Automobiles Autonomous cars Autonomous vehicles Behavior Behavior change Behavior modification Collision avoidance Driving Driving ability Economic Geography Economics Economics and Finance Engineering Economics Experiments Human behavior Human factors Impact analysis Innovation/Technology Management Logistics Market entry Marketing Millennials Network analysis Occupancy Organization Regional/Spatial Science Retirees Retirement Simulators Travel Travel demand Well being Willingness to pay
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Title	Projecting travelers into a world of self-driving vehicles: estimating travel behavior implications via a naturalistic experiment
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