Modeling and field-derived insights into canine leptospirosis in feral and domestic dogs of Texcoco, Mexico: A One Health approach

Leptospirosis, a globally important zoonosis, poses a significant health risk to both human and animal populations. This study aimed to determine the seroprevalence of Leptospira spp. in feral and domestic dogs in Texcoco, Mexico, and to model the disease's transmission dynamics. We tested 349...

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Published in:	Comparative immunology, microbiology and infectious diseases Vol. 124; p. 102420
Main Authors:	Salcedo-Jiménez, José, Alcala-Canto, Yazmín, Valadez-Moctezuma, Ernestina, Pérez-Rivero, Juan José
Format:	Journal Article
Language:	English
Published:	England Elsevier Ltd 01.12.2025
Subjects:	Agglutination Tests Animals Animals, Wild - microbiology Antibodies, Bacterial - blood Dog Diseases - epidemiology Dog Diseases - microbiology Dog Diseases - transmission Dogs Domestic dogs Epidemiological modeling Female Feral dogs Humans Leptospira - classification Leptospira - immunology Leptospira spp Leptospirosis - epidemiology Leptospirosis - transmission Leptospirosis - veterinary Male MAT Mexico - epidemiology One Health Prevalence Public health Seroepidemiologic Studies Serogroup Zoonoses - epidemiology Mexico MAT Epidemiological modeling Feral dogs Domestic dogs Leptospira spp Public health
ISSN:	0147-9571, 1878-1667, 1878-1667
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Abstract	Leptospirosis, a globally important zoonosis, poses a significant health risk to both human and animal populations. This study aimed to determine the seroprevalence of Leptospira spp. in feral and domestic dogs in Texcoco, Mexico, and to model the disease's transmission dynamics. We tested 349 asymptomatic dogs using the Microscopic Agglutination Test (MAT) for antibodies against multiple serovars. To simulate disease spread, we developed a Susceptible–Exposed–Infectious–Chronic–Recovered–Deceased (S-E-I-C-R-D) compartmental model, simulating transmission over 365 days. Overall seropositivity was 51 % (178/349), with a higher prevalence in feral dogs (55.3 %) and in non-vaccinated animals. The most frequent serovars were L. canicola (79.7 %) and L. bratislava (45.6 %). The model projected sustained transmission within the feral dog population, with prevalence peaking and stabilizing at a high level. This finding, with a simulated prevalence that approached 98 %, suggests that chronic carriers and constant environmental exposure could drive high pathogen circulation. Domestic dogs, while showing a lower simulated prevalence, likely contribute to the pathogen's persistent circulation. The combination of high field seroprevalence and model-based findings underscores that leptospirosis remains a significant public health concern in Texcoco, highlighting the urgent need for integrated control strategies that include vaccination, rodent management, and community education, aligned with a One Health approach that links animal, human, and environmental health. •Feral dogs present 8.7 times higher odds of Leptospira seropositivity than domiciled dogs.•Age is a significant risk factor, increasing the odds of Leptospira seropositivity by almost two-fold per year.•Multivariable logistic regression identifies dog status and age as key determinants of Leptospira infection risk.•High seroprevalence of Leptospira is independently associated with both feral status and increasing age in canines.
AbstractList	Leptospirosis, a globally important zoonosis, poses a significant health risk to both human and animal populations. This study aimed to determine the seroprevalence of Leptospira spp. in feral and domestic dogs in Texcoco, Mexico, and to model the disease's transmission dynamics. We tested 349 asymptomatic dogs using the Microscopic Agglutination Test (MAT) for antibodies against multiple serovars. To simulate disease spread, we developed a Susceptible–Exposed–Infectious–Chronic–Recovered–Deceased (S-E-I-C-R-D) compartmental model, simulating transmission over 365 days. Overall seropositivity was 51 % (178/349), with a higher prevalence in feral dogs (55.3 %) and in non-vaccinated animals. The most frequent serovars were L. canicola (79.7 %) and L. bratislava (45.6 %). The model projected sustained transmission within the feral dog population, with prevalence peaking and stabilizing at a high level. This finding, with a simulated prevalence that approached 98 %, suggests that chronic carriers and constant environmental exposure could drive high pathogen circulation. Domestic dogs, while showing a lower simulated prevalence, likely contribute to the pathogen's persistent circulation. The combination of high field seroprevalence and model-based findings underscores that leptospirosis remains a significant public health concern in Texcoco, highlighting the urgent need for integrated control strategies that include vaccination, rodent management, and community education, aligned with a One Health approach that links animal, human, and environmental health. •Feral dogs present 8.7 times higher odds of Leptospira seropositivity than domiciled dogs.•Age is a significant risk factor, increasing the odds of Leptospira seropositivity by almost two-fold per year.•Multivariable logistic regression identifies dog status and age as key determinants of Leptospira infection risk.•High seroprevalence of Leptospira is independently associated with both feral status and increasing age in canines. Leptospirosis, a globally important zoonosis, poses a significant health risk to both human and animal populations. This study aimed to determine the seroprevalence of Leptospira spp. in feral and domestic dogs in Texcoco, Mexico, and to model the disease's transmission dynamics. We tested 349 asymptomatic dogs using the Microscopic Agglutination Test (MAT) for antibodies against multiple serovars. To simulate disease spread, we developed a Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Chronic-Recovered-Deceased (S-E-I-C-R-D) compartmental model, simulating transmission over 365 days. Overall seropositivity was 51 % (178/349), with a higher prevalence in feral dogs (55.3 %) and in non-vaccinated animals. The most frequent serovars were L. canicola (79.7 %) and L. bratislava (45.6 %). The model projected sustained transmission within the feral dog population, with prevalence peaking and stabilizing at a high level. This finding, with a simulated prevalence that approached 98 %, suggests that chronic carriers and constant environmental exposure could drive high pathogen circulation. Domestic dogs, while showing a lower simulated prevalence, likely contribute to the pathogen's persistent circulation. The combination of high field seroprevalence and model-based findings underscores that leptospirosis remains a significant public health concern in Texcoco, highlighting the urgent need for integrated control strategies that include vaccination, rodent management, and community education, aligned with a One Health approach that links animal, human, and environmental health.Leptospirosis, a globally important zoonosis, poses a significant health risk to both human and animal populations. This study aimed to determine the seroprevalence of Leptospira spp. in feral and domestic dogs in Texcoco, Mexico, and to model the disease's transmission dynamics. We tested 349 asymptomatic dogs using the Microscopic Agglutination Test (MAT) for antibodies against multiple serovars. To simulate disease spread, we developed a Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Chronic-Recovered-Deceased (S-E-I-C-R-D) compartmental model, simulating transmission over 365 days. Overall seropositivity was 51 % (178/349), with a higher prevalence in feral dogs (55.3 %) and in non-vaccinated animals. The most frequent serovars were L. canicola (79.7 %) and L. bratislava (45.6 %). The model projected sustained transmission within the feral dog population, with prevalence peaking and stabilizing at a high level. This finding, with a simulated prevalence that approached 98 %, suggests that chronic carriers and constant environmental exposure could drive high pathogen circulation. Domestic dogs, while showing a lower simulated prevalence, likely contribute to the pathogen's persistent circulation. The combination of high field seroprevalence and model-based findings underscores that leptospirosis remains a significant public health concern in Texcoco, highlighting the urgent need for integrated control strategies that include vaccination, rodent management, and community education, aligned with a One Health approach that links animal, human, and environmental health. Leptospirosis, a globally important zoonosis, poses a significant health risk to both human and animal populations. This study aimed to determine the seroprevalence of Leptospira spp. in feral and domestic dogs in Texcoco, Mexico, and to model the disease's transmission dynamics. We tested 349 asymptomatic dogs using the Microscopic Agglutination Test (MAT) for antibodies against multiple serovars. To simulate disease spread, we developed a Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Chronic-Recovered-Deceased (S-E-I-C-R-D) compartmental model, simulating transmission over 365 days. Overall seropositivity was 51 % (178/349), with a higher prevalence in feral dogs (55.3 %) and in non-vaccinated animals. The most frequent serovars were L. canicola (79.7 %) and L. bratislava (45.6 %). The model projected sustained transmission within the feral dog population, with prevalence peaking and stabilizing at a high level. This finding, with a simulated prevalence that approached 98 %, suggests that chronic carriers and constant environmental exposure could drive high pathogen circulation. Domestic dogs, while showing a lower simulated prevalence, likely contribute to the pathogen's persistent circulation. The combination of high field seroprevalence and model-based findings underscores that leptospirosis remains a significant public health concern in Texcoco, highlighting the urgent need for integrated control strategies that include vaccination, rodent management, and community education, aligned with a One Health approach that links animal, human, and environmental health.
ArticleNumber	102420
Author	Alcala-Canto, Yazmín Valadez-Moctezuma, Ernestina Pérez-Rivero, Juan José Salcedo-Jiménez, José
Author_xml	– sequence: 1 givenname: José surname: Salcedo-Jiménez fullname: Salcedo-Jiménez, José email: lajoesalcedo@gmail.com organization: Programa de Doctorado en Ciencias de la Producción y de la Salud Animal, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, Av. Universidad #3000, Colonia, C.U., Coyoacán, Ciudad de México 04510, Mexico – sequence: 2 givenname: Yazmín surname: Alcala-Canto fullname: Alcala-Canto, Yazmín email: yazmin@unam.mx organization: Departamento de Parasitología, Facultad de Medicina Veterinaria y Zootecnia, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, Av. Universidad #3000, Colonia, C.U., Coyoacán, Ciudad de México 04510, Mexico – sequence: 3 givenname: Ernestina surname: Valadez-Moctezuma fullname: Valadez-Moctezuma, Ernestina email: evaledezm@chapingo.mx organization: Departamento de Fitotecnia, Universidad Autónoma Chapingo, Carretera Federal México-Texcoco Km 38.5, Universidad Autónoma de Chapingo, El Cooperativo 56230, Mexico – sequence: 4 givenname: Juan José orcidid: 0000-0003-1078-6695 surname: Pérez-Rivero fullname: Pérez-Rivero, Juan José email: jperezr@correo.xoc.uam.mx organization: Departamento de Producción Agrícola y Animal, Universidad Autónoma Metropolitana, Calzada del Hueso 1100, Coapa, Villa Quietud, Coyoacán, Ciudad de México 04960, Mexico
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Cites_doi	10.1111/zph.12280 10.1002/vms3.70059 10.3390/ani14040601 10.1016/j.vetmic.2009.03.012 10.1186/s12917-018-1547-4 10.1016/j.prevetmed.2022.105707 10.1371/journal.pone.0247255 10.1101/cshperspect.a026633 10.1016/S1473-3099(03)00830-2 10.1016/j.cvsm.2010.07.008 10.1177/0272989X221078789 10.1007/s00285-025-02240-x 10.1111/gcb.16033 10.1208/s12248-022-00743-9 10.3390/tropicalmed8090435 10.3390/microorganisms12040674 10.1111/jvim.16903 10.1099/ijs.0.066597-0 10.2460/javma.234.4.472 10.1371/journal.pone.0116053 10.1007/s11259-023-10103-3 10.1016/j.epidem.2018.05.002 10.3390/ijerph19073906
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Keywords	MAT Epidemiological modeling Feral dogs Domestic dogs Leptospira spp Public health
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Snippet	Leptospirosis, a globally important zoonosis, poses a significant health risk to both human and animal populations. This study aimed to determine the...
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SubjectTerms	Agglutination Tests Animals Animals, Wild - microbiology Antibodies, Bacterial - blood Dog Diseases - epidemiology Dog Diseases - microbiology Dog Diseases - transmission Dogs Domestic dogs Epidemiological modeling Female Feral dogs Humans Leptospira - classification Leptospira - immunology Leptospira spp Leptospirosis - epidemiology Leptospirosis - transmission Leptospirosis - veterinary Male MAT Mexico - epidemiology One Health Prevalence Public health Seroepidemiologic Studies Serogroup Zoonoses - epidemiology
Title	Modeling and field-derived insights into canine leptospirosis in feral and domestic dogs of Texcoco, Mexico: A One Health approach
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