More stylized facts of financial markets: leverage effect and downside correlations

We discuss two more universal features of stock markets: the so-called leverage effect (a negative correlation between past returns and future volatility), and the increased downside correlations. For individual stocks, the leverage correlation can be rationalized in terms of a new ‘retarded’ model...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Physica A Vol. 299; no. 1; pp. 60 - 70
Main Authors: Bouchaud, Jean-Philippe, Potters, Marc
Format: Journal Article
Language:English
Published: Elsevier B.V 01.10.2001
Elsevier
Subjects:
Empirical finance
Equity cross-correlations
General Physics
Physics
Price-volatility correlations
02.50.Le
Equity cross-correlations
87.23.Ge
89.65.Gh
05.45.Tp
Price-volatility correlations
Empirical finance
ISSN:0378-4371, 1873-2119, 0378-4371
Online Access:Get full text
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Summary:We discuss two more universal features of stock markets: the so-called leverage effect (a negative correlation between past returns and future volatility), and the increased downside correlations. For individual stocks, the leverage correlation can be rationalized in terms of a new ‘retarded’ model which interpolates between a purely additive and a purely multiplicative stochastic process. For stock indices a specific market panic phenomenon seems to be necessary to account for the observed amplitude of the effect. As for the increase of correlations in highly volatile periods, we investigate how much of this effect can be explained within a simple non-Gaussian one-factor description with time independent correlations. In particular, this one-factor model can explain the level and asymmetry of empirical exceedance correlations, which reflects the fat-tailed and negatively skewed distribution of market returns.
ISSN:0378-4371
1873-2119
0378-4371
DOI:10.1016/S0378-4371(01)00282-5