Development of a Prognostic Model for Predicting Multiple Sclerosis After Optic Neuritis: A Secondary Analysis of Data From the Optic Neuritis Treatment Trial
Optic neuritis can be the initial manifestation of multiple sclerosis (MS). The purpose of this study was to develop a prognostic model for predicting the risk of MS development among patients with optic neuritis. The data from 388 patients with optic neuritis were retrieved from the Optic Neuritis...
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| Vydané v: | Journal of neuro-ophthalmology Ročník 42; číslo 1; s. 88 |
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| Hlavní autori: | , , , , , , |
| Médium: | Journal Article |
| Jazyk: | English |
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United States
01.03.2022
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| ISSN: | 1536-5166, 1536-5166 |
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| Abstract | Optic neuritis can be the initial manifestation of multiple sclerosis (MS). The purpose of this study was to develop a prognostic model for predicting the risk of MS development among patients with optic neuritis.
The data from 388 patients with optic neuritis were retrieved from the Optic Neuritis Treatment Trial (ONTT). Cox proportional hazards regression analysis was used to develop a prognostic model. The performance of the model was assessed by using Harrell's C-index and calibration curves. The rates of MS development were estimated using the Kaplan-Meier method.
Among the enrolled subjects, a total of 154 (39.7%) patients developed clinically definite MS during a median follow-up period of 15.8 years (interquartile range, 7.2-16.9 years). The factors associated with the development of MS were the presence of brain lesions as on baseline MRI, previous nonspecific neurologic symptoms, commencing low-dose corticosteroids treatment, ocular pain, and absence of optic disc/peripapillary hemorrhage. After incorporating these 5 factors into the prognostic model, a C-index of 0.72 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.69-0.76) and good calibration curves were obtained. The C-index of the model was significantly higher than the C-indexes of any single factor (P < 0.001 in all cases). The model was able to stratify the ONTT patient cohort into 3 risk groups with significantly different intergroup rates of developing MS (rates for developing MS within a 15-year period: high-risk group, 75.7% [95% CI, 65.6%-82.9%], intermediate-risk group, 44.7% [95% CI, 31.4%-55.4%]; and low-risk group, 20.8% [95% CI, 14.2%-26.8%]; log-rank P < 0.001).
This prognostic model had a better prediction ability when compared with the standard practice that relies solely on using brain lesions on MRI. It can, therefore, help guide decision-making to initiate earlier disease-modifying therapy for patients with optic neuritis at risk of developing MS. |
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| AbstractList | Optic neuritis can be the initial manifestation of multiple sclerosis (MS). The purpose of this study was to develop a prognostic model for predicting the risk of MS development among patients with optic neuritis.BACKGROUNDOptic neuritis can be the initial manifestation of multiple sclerosis (MS). The purpose of this study was to develop a prognostic model for predicting the risk of MS development among patients with optic neuritis.The data from 388 patients with optic neuritis were retrieved from the Optic Neuritis Treatment Trial (ONTT). Cox proportional hazards regression analysis was used to develop a prognostic model. The performance of the model was assessed by using Harrell's C-index and calibration curves. The rates of MS development were estimated using the Kaplan-Meier method.METHODSThe data from 388 patients with optic neuritis were retrieved from the Optic Neuritis Treatment Trial (ONTT). Cox proportional hazards regression analysis was used to develop a prognostic model. The performance of the model was assessed by using Harrell's C-index and calibration curves. The rates of MS development were estimated using the Kaplan-Meier method.Among the enrolled subjects, a total of 154 (39.7%) patients developed clinically definite MS during a median follow-up period of 15.8 years (interquartile range, 7.2-16.9 years). The factors associated with the development of MS were the presence of brain lesions as on baseline MRI, previous nonspecific neurologic symptoms, commencing low-dose corticosteroids treatment, ocular pain, and absence of optic disc/peripapillary hemorrhage. After incorporating these 5 factors into the prognostic model, a C-index of 0.72 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.69-0.76) and good calibration curves were obtained. The C-index of the model was significantly higher than the C-indexes of any single factor (P < 0.001 in all cases). The model was able to stratify the ONTT patient cohort into 3 risk groups with significantly different intergroup rates of developing MS (rates for developing MS within a 15-year period: high-risk group, 75.7% [95% CI, 65.6%-82.9%], intermediate-risk group, 44.7% [95% CI, 31.4%-55.4%]; and low-risk group, 20.8% [95% CI, 14.2%-26.8%]; log-rank P < 0.001).RESULTSAmong the enrolled subjects, a total of 154 (39.7%) patients developed clinically definite MS during a median follow-up period of 15.8 years (interquartile range, 7.2-16.9 years). The factors associated with the development of MS were the presence of brain lesions as on baseline MRI, previous nonspecific neurologic symptoms, commencing low-dose corticosteroids treatment, ocular pain, and absence of optic disc/peripapillary hemorrhage. After incorporating these 5 factors into the prognostic model, a C-index of 0.72 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.69-0.76) and good calibration curves were obtained. The C-index of the model was significantly higher than the C-indexes of any single factor (P < 0.001 in all cases). The model was able to stratify the ONTT patient cohort into 3 risk groups with significantly different intergroup rates of developing MS (rates for developing MS within a 15-year period: high-risk group, 75.7% [95% CI, 65.6%-82.9%], intermediate-risk group, 44.7% [95% CI, 31.4%-55.4%]; and low-risk group, 20.8% [95% CI, 14.2%-26.8%]; log-rank P < 0.001).This prognostic model had a better prediction ability when compared with the standard practice that relies solely on using brain lesions on MRI. It can, therefore, help guide decision-making to initiate earlier disease-modifying therapy for patients with optic neuritis at risk of developing MS.CONCLUSIONSThis prognostic model had a better prediction ability when compared with the standard practice that relies solely on using brain lesions on MRI. It can, therefore, help guide decision-making to initiate earlier disease-modifying therapy for patients with optic neuritis at risk of developing MS. Optic neuritis can be the initial manifestation of multiple sclerosis (MS). The purpose of this study was to develop a prognostic model for predicting the risk of MS development among patients with optic neuritis. The data from 388 patients with optic neuritis were retrieved from the Optic Neuritis Treatment Trial (ONTT). Cox proportional hazards regression analysis was used to develop a prognostic model. The performance of the model was assessed by using Harrell's C-index and calibration curves. The rates of MS development were estimated using the Kaplan-Meier method. Among the enrolled subjects, a total of 154 (39.7%) patients developed clinically definite MS during a median follow-up period of 15.8 years (interquartile range, 7.2-16.9 years). The factors associated with the development of MS were the presence of brain lesions as on baseline MRI, previous nonspecific neurologic symptoms, commencing low-dose corticosteroids treatment, ocular pain, and absence of optic disc/peripapillary hemorrhage. After incorporating these 5 factors into the prognostic model, a C-index of 0.72 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.69-0.76) and good calibration curves were obtained. The C-index of the model was significantly higher than the C-indexes of any single factor (P < 0.001 in all cases). The model was able to stratify the ONTT patient cohort into 3 risk groups with significantly different intergroup rates of developing MS (rates for developing MS within a 15-year period: high-risk group, 75.7% [95% CI, 65.6%-82.9%], intermediate-risk group, 44.7% [95% CI, 31.4%-55.4%]; and low-risk group, 20.8% [95% CI, 14.2%-26.8%]; log-rank P < 0.001). This prognostic model had a better prediction ability when compared with the standard practice that relies solely on using brain lesions on MRI. It can, therefore, help guide decision-making to initiate earlier disease-modifying therapy for patients with optic neuritis at risk of developing MS. |
| Author | Deng, Xinlei Luo, Wenjing Moss, Heather E Luo, Meifeng Du, Yi Xu, Xiaoyu Song, Ruitong |
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| CitedBy_id | crossref_primary_10_1016_j_msard_2024_105614 crossref_primary_10_4103_1673_5374_346462 crossref_primary_10_1371_journal_pone_0309702 crossref_primary_10_3389_fneur_2023_1326261 crossref_primary_10_7326_ANNALS_24_01516 |
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| SubjectTerms | Cohort Studies Humans Magnetic Resonance Imaging Multiple Sclerosis - complications Multiple Sclerosis - diagnosis Multiple Sclerosis - drug therapy Optic Neuritis - diagnosis Optic Neuritis - epidemiology Optic Neuritis - etiology Prognosis |
| Title | Development of a Prognostic Model for Predicting Multiple Sclerosis After Optic Neuritis: A Secondary Analysis of Data From the Optic Neuritis Treatment Trial |
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