Growth rates of modern science: A bibliometric analysis based on the number of publications and cited references

Many studies (in information science) have looked at the growth of science. In this study, we reexamine the question of the growth of science. To do this we (a) use current data up to publication year 2012 and (b) analyze the data across all disciplines and also separately for the natural sciences a...

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Published in:	Journal of the Association for Information Science and Technology Vol. 66; no. 11; pp. 2215 - 2222
Main Authors:	Bornmann, Lutz, Mutz, Rüdiger
Format:	Journal Article
Language:	English
Published:	Blackwell Publishing Ltd 01.11.2015
Subjects:	Bibliometrics Citation analysis Documents Health Medical Phases Regression Segments
ISSN:	2330-1635, 2330-1643
Online Access:	Get full text
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Abstract	Many studies (in information science) have looked at the growth of science. In this study, we reexamine the question of the growth of science. To do this we (a) use current data up to publication year 2012 and (b) analyze the data across all disciplines and also separately for the natural sciences and for the medical and health sciences. Furthermore, the data were analyzed with an advanced statistical technique—segmented regression analysis—which can identify specific segments with similar growth rates in the history of science. The study is based on two different sets of bibliometric data: (a) the number of publications held as source items in the Web of Science (WoS, Thomson Reuters) per publication year and (b) the number of cited references in the publications of the source items per cited reference year. We looked at the rate at which science has grown since the mid‐1600s. In our analysis of cited references we identified three essential growth phases in the development of science, which each led to growth rates tripling in comparison with the previous phase: from less than 1% up to the middle of the 18th century, to 2 to 3% up to the period between the two world wars, and 8 to 9% to 2010.
AbstractList	Many studies (in information science) have looked at the growth of science. In this study, we reexamine the question of the growth of science. To do this we (a) use current data up to publication year 2012 and (b) analyze the data across all disciplines and also separately for the natural sciences and for the medical and health sciences. Furthermore, the data were analyzed with an advanced statistical technique—segmented regression analysis—which can identify specific segments with similar growth rates in the history of science. The study is based on two different sets of bibliometric data: (a) the number of publications held as source items in the Web of Science ( WoS , T homson R euters) per publication year and (b) the number of cited references in the publications of the source items per cited reference year. We looked at the rate at which science has grown since the mid‐1600s. In our analysis of cited references we identified three essential growth phases in the development of science, which each led to growth rates tripling in comparison with the previous phase: from less than 1% up to the middle of the 18th century, to 2 to 3% up to the period between the two world wars, and 8 to 9% to 2010. Many studies (in information science) have looked at the growth of science. In this study, we reexamine the question of the growth of science. To do this we (a) use current data up to publication year 2012 and (b) analyze the data across all disciplines and also separately for the natural sciences and for the medical and health sciences. Furthermore, the data were analyzed with an advanced statistical technique-segmented regression analysis-which can identify specific segments with similar growth rates in the history of science. The study is based on two different sets of bibliometric data: (a) the number of publications held as source items in the Web of Science (WoS, Thomson Reuters) per publication year and (b) the number of cited references in the publications of the source items per cited reference year. We looked at the rate at which science has grown since the mid-1600s. In our analysis of cited references we identified three essential growth phases in the development of science, which each led to growth rates tripling in comparison with the previous phase: from less than 1% up to the middle of the 18th century, to 2 to 3% up to the period between the two world wars, and 8 to 9% to 2010.
Author	Bornmann, Lutz Mutz, Rüdiger
Author_xml	– sequence: 1 givenname: Lutz surname: Bornmann fullname: Bornmann, Lutz email: bornmann@gv.mpg.de organization: Division for Science and Innovation Studies, Administrative Headquarters of the Max Planck Society, Munich, Germany – sequence: 2 givenname: Rüdiger surname: Mutz fullname: Mutz, Rüdiger email: ruediger.mutz@gess.ethz.ch organization: Professorship for Social Psychology and Research on Higher Education, ETH Zurich, Mühlegasse 21, 8001, Zuerich, Switzerland
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References	Tabah, A.N. (1999). Literature dynamics: Studies on growth, diffusion, and epidemics. Annual Review of Information Science and Technology, 34, 249-286. van Raan, A.F.J. (2000). On growth, ageing, and fractal differentiation of science. Scientometrics, 47(2), 347-362. SAS Institute. (2011). SAS/STAT 9.3 User's Guide. Cary, NC: SAS Institute Inc. Brusilovskiy, E. (2004). The piecewise regression model as a response modeling tool. Baltimore: SAS Conference Proceedings. Shuai, X., Zhou, Z., & Yost, R. (2003). Using segmented regression models to fit soil nutrient and soybean grain yield changes due to liming. Journal of Agricultural, Biological, and Environmental Statistics, 8(2), 240-252. Bornmann, L., & Marx, W. (2013). The proposal of a broadening of perspective in evaluative bibliometrics by complementing the times cited with a cited reference analysis. Journal of Informetrics, 7(1), 84-88. Council of Canadian Academies. (2012). Informing research choices: Indicators and judgment: The expert panel on science performance and research funding. Ottawa, Canada: Council of Canadian Academies. Gattei, S. (2009). Karl Popper's philosophy of science rationality without foundations. New York: Routledge. Sauter, U.H., Mutz, R., & Munro, B.D. (1999). Determining juvenile-mature wood transition in scots pine using latewood density. Wood and Fiber Science, 31(4), 416-425. Frazzetto, G. (2004). The changing identity of the scientist. EMBO Reports, 5(1), 18-20. Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development. (2007). Revised field of science and technology (FOS) classification in the Frascati manual. Paris, France: Working Party of National Experts on Science and Technology Indicators, Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Developmen. Larsen, P. O., & von Ins, M. (2010). The rate of growth in scientific publication and the decline in coverage provided by Science Citation Index. Scientometrics, 84(3), 575-603. Lerman, P.M. (1980). Fitting segmented regression models by grid search. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, Series C, 29(1), 77-84. Bornmann, L. (2013). What is societal impact of research and how can it be assessed? A literature survey. Journal of the American Society of Information Science and Technology, 64(2), 217-233. Marx, W. (2011). Special features of historical papers from the viewpoint of bibliometrics. Journal of the American Society for Information Science and Technology, 62(3), 433-439. Marx, W., Bornmann, L., Barth, A., & Leydesdorff, L. (2014). Detecting the historical roots of research fields by reference publication year spectroscopy (RPYS). Journal of the American Society for Information Science and Technology (in press). Michels, C., & Schmoch, U. (2012). The growth of science and database coverage. Scientometrics, 93(3), 831-846. Sense About Science. (2005). "I don't know what to believe ..." Making sense of science stories. London: Sense about Science. Mutz, R., Guilley, E., Sauter, U.H., & Nepveu, G. (2004). Modelling juvenile-mature wood transition in Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.) using nonlinear mixed effects-models. Annals of Forest Sciences, 61, 831-841. Pautasso, M. (2012). Publication growth in biological sub-fields: Patterns, predictability and sustainability. Sustainability, 4(12), 3234-3247. Popper, K.R. (1988). Auf der Suche nach einer besseren Welt. Vorträge und Aufsätze aus dreiβig Jahren (3. ed.). München, Germany: Piper. Riviera, E. (2013). Scientific communities as autopoietic systems: The reproductive function of citations. Journal of the American Society for Information Science and Technology, 64(7), 1442-1453. Bornmann, L., & Daniel, H.-D. (2007). Multiple publication on a single research study: Does it pay? The influence of number of research articles on total citation counts in biomedicine. Journal of the American Society for Information Science and Technology, 58(8), 1100-1107. Kostoff, R.N., & Shlesinger, M.F. (2005). CAB: Citation-assisted background. Scientometrics, 62(2), 199-212. Bornmann, L. (2012). Measuring the societal impact of research. EMBO Reports, 13(8), 673-676. Evans, J.A. (2013). Future science. Science, 342(6154), 44-45. Egghe, L., & Rousseau, R. (2000). Aging, obsolescence, impact, growth, and utilization: Definitions and relations. Journal of the American Society for Information Science, 51(11), 1004-1017. Bornmann, L. (2011). Scientific peer review. Annual Review of Information Science and Technology, 45, 199-245. Gould, T.H.P. (2013). Do we still need peer review? An argument for change. Plymouth, UK: Scarecrow Press. Lariviere, V., Gingras, Y., & Archambault, E. (2006). Canadian collaboration networks: A comparative analysis of the natural sciences, social sciences and the humanities. Scientometrics, 68(3), 519-533. Price, D.J.D. (1965). Networks of scientific papers. Science, 149(3683), 510-515. McGee, V.E., & Carleton, W.T. (1970). Piecewise regression. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 65 (311), 1109-1124. Price, D.J.d.S. (1961). Science since Babylon. New Haven, CT: Yale University Press. Price, D.J.d.S. (1951). Quantitative measures of the development of science. Archives Internationales d'Histoire des Sciences, 14, 85-93. Bornmann, L., Mutz, R., & Daniel, H.-D. (2010). The h index research output measurement: two approaches to enhance its accuracy. Journal of Informetrics, 4(3), 407-414. de Bellis, N. (2009). Bibliometrics and citation analysis: From the Science Citation Index to Cybermetrics. Lanham, MD: Scarecrow Press. 2004; 61 1965; 149 1980; 29 2012 2000; 47 2011 2013; 64 2011; 62 2009 2005; 62 2000; 51 2013; 342 2007 2004; 5 2005 2004 2013; 7 2012; 13 2007; 58 2010; 84 2012; 93 2006; 68 2005; 1B 2003; 8 1999; 34 1970; 65 1961 1999; 31 2011; 45 2002a 2014 2013 1951; 14 2012; 4 2010; 4 1988 Bellis N. (e_1_2_6_10_1) 2009 SAS Institute (e_1_2_6_35_1) 2011 Henderson A. (e_1_2_6_16_1) 2002 e_1_2_6_19_1 Organisation for Economic Co‐operation and Development (e_1_2_6_28_1) 2007 e_1_2_6_13_1 e_1_2_6_11_1 Price D.J.d.S. (e_1_2_6_31_1) 1951; 14 Price D.J.d.S. (e_1_2_6_32_1) 1961 e_1_2_6_34_1 e_1_2_6_12_1 Henderson A. (e_1_2_6_17_1) 2005 e_1_2_6_33_1 e_1_2_6_18_1 Gould T.H.P. (e_1_2_6_15_1) 2013 e_1_2_6_38_1 Brusilovskiy E. (e_1_2_6_8_1) 2004 Council of Canadian Academies (e_1_2_6_9_1) 2012 e_1_2_6_21_1 e_1_2_6_20_1 e_1_2_6_40_1 Gattei S. (e_1_2_6_14_1) 2009 Tabah A.N. (e_1_2_6_39_1) 1999; 34 e_1_2_6_5_1 e_1_2_6_4_1 e_1_2_6_7_1 e_1_2_6_6_1 e_1_2_6_25_1 Sense About Science (e_1_2_6_37_1) 2005 e_1_2_6_24_1 e_1_2_6_3_1 e_1_2_6_23_1 e_1_2_6_2_1 e_1_2_6_22_1 e_1_2_6_29_1 Popper K.R. (e_1_2_6_30_1) 1988 e_1_2_6_27_1 e_1_2_6_26_1 Sauter U.H. (e_1_2_6_36_1) 1999; 31
References_xml	– reference: Council of Canadian Academies. (2012). Informing research choices: Indicators and judgment: The expert panel on science performance and research funding. Ottawa, Canada: Council of Canadian Academies. – reference: Price, D.J.d.S. (1951). Quantitative measures of the development of science. Archives Internationales d'Histoire des Sciences, 14, 85-93. – reference: Sense About Science. (2005). "I don't know what to believe ..." Making sense of science stories. London: Sense about Science. – reference: Pautasso, M. (2012). Publication growth in biological sub-fields: Patterns, predictability and sustainability. Sustainability, 4(12), 3234-3247. – reference: Evans, J.A. (2013). Future science. Science, 342(6154), 44-45. – reference: Price, D.J.d.S. (1961). Science since Babylon. New Haven, CT: Yale University Press. – reference: Popper, K.R. (1988). Auf der Suche nach einer besseren Welt. Vorträge und Aufsätze aus dreiβig Jahren (3. ed.). München, Germany: Piper. – reference: Lariviere, V., Gingras, Y., & Archambault, E. (2006). Canadian collaboration networks: A comparative analysis of the natural sciences, social sciences and the humanities. Scientometrics, 68(3), 519-533. – reference: Gould, T.H.P. (2013). Do we still need peer review? An argument for change. Plymouth, UK: Scarecrow Press. – reference: Brusilovskiy, E. (2004). The piecewise regression model as a response modeling tool. Baltimore: SAS Conference Proceedings. – reference: Bornmann, L., & Marx, W. (2013). The proposal of a broadening of perspective in evaluative bibliometrics by complementing the times cited with a cited reference analysis. Journal of Informetrics, 7(1), 84-88. – reference: SAS Institute. (2011). SAS/STAT 9.3 User's Guide. Cary, NC: SAS Institute Inc. – reference: Kostoff, R.N., & Shlesinger, M.F. (2005). CAB: Citation-assisted background. Scientometrics, 62(2), 199-212. – reference: Egghe, L., & Rousseau, R. (2000). Aging, obsolescence, impact, growth, and utilization: Definitions and relations. Journal of the American Society for Information Science, 51(11), 1004-1017. – reference: Marx, W. (2011). Special features of historical papers from the viewpoint of bibliometrics. Journal of the American Society for Information Science and Technology, 62(3), 433-439. – reference: Larsen, P. O., & von Ins, M. (2010). The rate of growth in scientific publication and the decline in coverage provided by Science Citation Index. Scientometrics, 84(3), 575-603. – reference: Bornmann, L., Mutz, R., & Daniel, H.-D. (2010). The h index research output measurement: two approaches to enhance its accuracy. Journal of Informetrics, 4(3), 407-414. – reference: Michels, C., & Schmoch, U. (2012). The growth of science and database coverage. Scientometrics, 93(3), 831-846. – reference: Riviera, E. (2013). Scientific communities as autopoietic systems: The reproductive function of citations. Journal of the American Society for Information Science and Technology, 64(7), 1442-1453. – reference: Frazzetto, G. (2004). The changing identity of the scientist. EMBO Reports, 5(1), 18-20. – reference: Shuai, X., Zhou, Z., & Yost, R. (2003). Using segmented regression models to fit soil nutrient and soybean grain yield changes due to liming. Journal of Agricultural, Biological, and Environmental Statistics, 8(2), 240-252. – reference: Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development. (2007). Revised field of science and technology (FOS) classification in the Frascati manual. Paris, France: Working Party of National Experts on Science and Technology Indicators, Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Developmen. – reference: Bornmann, L. (2013). What is societal impact of research and how can it be assessed? A literature survey. Journal of the American Society of Information Science and Technology, 64(2), 217-233. – reference: Gattei, S. (2009). Karl Popper's philosophy of science rationality without foundations. New York: Routledge. – reference: Price, D.J.D. (1965). Networks of scientific papers. Science, 149(3683), 510-515. – reference: Marx, W., Bornmann, L., Barth, A., & Leydesdorff, L. (2014). Detecting the historical roots of research fields by reference publication year spectroscopy (RPYS). Journal of the American Society for Information Science and Technology (in press). – reference: Lerman, P.M. (1980). Fitting segmented regression models by grid search. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, Series C, 29(1), 77-84. – reference: Bornmann, L., & Daniel, H.-D. (2007). Multiple publication on a single research study: Does it pay? The influence of number of research articles on total citation counts in biomedicine. Journal of the American Society for Information Science and Technology, 58(8), 1100-1107. – reference: McGee, V.E., & Carleton, W.T. (1970). Piecewise regression. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 65 (311), 1109-1124. – reference: Tabah, A.N. (1999). Literature dynamics: Studies on growth, diffusion, and epidemics. Annual Review of Information Science and Technology, 34, 249-286. – reference: Mutz, R., Guilley, E., Sauter, U.H., & Nepveu, G. (2004). Modelling juvenile-mature wood transition in Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.) using nonlinear mixed effects-models. Annals of Forest Sciences, 61, 831-841. – reference: de Bellis, N. (2009). Bibliometrics and citation analysis: From the Science Citation Index to Cybermetrics. Lanham, MD: Scarecrow Press. – reference: Sauter, U.H., Mutz, R., & Munro, B.D. (1999). Determining juvenile-mature wood transition in scots pine using latewood density. Wood and Fiber Science, 31(4), 416-425. – reference: Bornmann, L. (2012). Measuring the societal impact of research. EMBO Reports, 13(8), 673-676. – reference: van Raan, A.F.J. (2000). On growth, ageing, and fractal differentiation of science. Scientometrics, 47(2), 347-362. – reference: Bornmann, L. (2011). Scientific peer review. Annual Review of Information Science and Technology, 45, 199-245. – volume: 13 start-page: 673 issue: 8 year: 2012 end-page: 676 article-title: Measuring the societal impact of research publication-title: EMBO Reports – year: 2011 – volume: 93 start-page: 831 issue: 3 year: 2012 end-page: 846 article-title: The growth of science and database coverage publication-title: Scientometrics – year: 2009 – volume: 34 start-page: 249 year: 1999 end-page: 286 article-title: Literature dynamics: Studies on growth, diffusion, and epidemics publication-title: Annual Review of Information Science and Technology – volume: 58 start-page: 1100 issue: 8 year: 2007 end-page: 1107 article-title: Multiple publication on a single research study: Does it pay? 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A literature survey publication-title: Journal of the American Society of Information Science and Technology – volume: 62 start-page: 199 issue: 2 year: 2005 end-page: 212 article-title: CAB: Citation‐assisted background publication-title: Scientometrics – volume: 149 start-page: 510 issue: 3683 year: 1965 end-page: 515 article-title: Networks of scientific papers publication-title: Science – volume: 64 start-page: 1442 issue: 7 year: 2013 end-page: 1453 article-title: Scientific communities as autopoietic systems: The reproductive function of citations publication-title: Journal of the American Society for Information Science and Technology – volume: 51 start-page: 1004 issue: 11 year: 2000 end-page: 1017 article-title: Aging, obsolescence, impact, growth, and utilization: Definitions and relations publication-title: Journal of the American Society for Information Science – year: 2012 – year: 1961 – volume: 7 start-page: 84 issue: 1 year: 2013 end-page: 88 article-title: The proposal of a broadening of perspective in evaluative bibliometrics by complementing the times cited with a cited reference analysis publication-title: Journal of Informetrics – volume: 8 start-page: 240 issue: 2 year: 2003 end-page: 252 article-title: Using segmented regression models to fit soil nutrient and soybean grain yield changes due to liming publication-title: Journal of Agricultural, Biological, and Environmental Statistics – year: 2014 article-title: Detecting the historical roots of research fields by reference publication year spectroscopy (RPYS) publication-title: Journal of the American Society for Information Science and Technology – start-page: 133 year: 2002a end-page: 162 – year: 1988 – volume: 4 start-page: 407 issue: 3 year: 2010 end-page: 414 article-title: The h index research output measurement: two approaches to enhance its accuracy publication-title: Journal of Informetrics – year: 2004 – volume: 61 start-page: 831 year: 2004 end-page: 841 article-title: Modelling juvenile‐mature wood transition in Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.) using nonlinear mixed effects‐models publication-title: Annals of Forest Sciences – volume: 4 start-page: 3234 issue: 12 year: 2012 end-page: 3247 article-title: Publication growth in biological sub‐fields: Patterns, predictability and sustainability publication-title: Sustainability – year: 2013 – volume: 14 start-page: 85 year: 1951 end-page: 93 article-title: Quantitative measures of the development of science publication-title: Archives Internationales d'Histoire des Sciences – ident: e_1_2_6_29_1 doi: 10.3390/su4123234 – ident: e_1_2_6_23_1 doi: 10.1002/asi.23089 – ident: e_1_2_6_40_1 doi: 10.1023/A:1005647328460 – volume: 31 start-page: 416 issue: 4 year: 1999 ident: e_1_2_6_36_1 article-title: Determining juvenile‐mature wood transition in scots pine using latewood density publication-title: Wood and Fiber Science – ident: e_1_2_6_2_1 doi: 10.1002/aris.2011.1440450112 – volume-title: Revised field of science and technology (FOS) classification in the Frascati manual year: 2007 ident: e_1_2_6_28_1 – ident: e_1_2_6_13_1 doi: 10.1038/sj.embor.7400061 – ident: e_1_2_6_3_1 doi: 10.1038/embor.2012.99 – volume-title: Science since Babylon year: 1961 ident: e_1_2_6_32_1 – ident: e_1_2_6_11_1 doi: 10.1002/1097-4571(2000)9999:9999<::AID-ASI1003>3.0.CO;2-8 – volume-title: Auf der Suche nach einer besseren Welt. Vorträge und Aufsätze aus dreiβig Jahren year: 1988 ident: e_1_2_6_30_1 – ident: e_1_2_6_7_1 doi: 10.1016/j.joi.2010.03.005 – ident: e_1_2_6_26_1 doi: 10.1016/S1574-0684(05)01017-8 – ident: e_1_2_6_33_1 doi: 10.1126/science.149.3683.510 – ident: e_1_2_6_21_1 doi: 10.2307/2346413 – volume: 34 start-page: 249 year: 1999 ident: e_1_2_6_39_1 article-title: Literature dynamics: Studies on growth, diffusion, and epidemics publication-title: Annual Review of Information Science and Technology – volume-title: Informing research choices: Indicators and judgment: The expert panel on science performance and research funding year: 2012 ident: e_1_2_6_9_1 – ident: e_1_2_6_12_1 doi: 10.1126/science.1245218 – ident: e_1_2_6_20_1 doi: 10.1007/s11192-010-0202-z – ident: e_1_2_6_24_1 doi: 10.2307/2284278 – ident: e_1_2_6_25_1 doi: 10.1007/s11192-012-0732-7 – volume-title: Bibliometrics and citation analysis: From the Science Citation Index to Cybermetrics year: 2009 ident: e_1_2_6_10_1 – volume-title: Karl Popper's philosophy of science rationality without foundations year: 2009 ident: e_1_2_6_14_1 – ident: e_1_2_6_22_1 doi: 10.1002/asi.21479 – ident: e_1_2_6_18_1 doi: 10.1007/s11192-005-0014-8 – ident: e_1_2_6_5_1 doi: 10.1002/asi.20531 – ident: e_1_2_6_19_1 doi: 10.1007/s11192-006-0127-8 – volume: 14 start-page: 85 year: 1951 ident: e_1_2_6_31_1 article-title: Quantitative measures of the development of science publication-title: Archives Internationales d'Histoire des Sciences – ident: e_1_2_6_27_1 doi: 10.1051/forest:2004084 – volume-title: The piecewise regression model as a response modeling tool year: 2004 ident: e_1_2_6_8_1 – start-page: 133 volume-title: Scholarly publishing. Books, Journals, Publishers and Libraries in the Twentieth Century year: 2002 ident: e_1_2_6_16_1 – volume-title: SAS/STAT 9.3 User's Guide year: 2011 ident: e_1_2_6_35_1 – ident: e_1_2_6_38_1 doi: 10.1198/1085711031580 – ident: e_1_2_6_6_1 doi: 10.1016/j.joi.2012.09.003 – start-page: 1 volume-title: Scholarly publishing. Books, Journals, Publishers and Libraries in the Twentieth Century year: 2005 ident: e_1_2_6_17_1 – ident: e_1_2_6_4_1 doi: 10.1002/asi.22803 – ident: e_1_2_6_34_1 doi: 10.1002/asi.22826 – volume-title: “I don't know what to believe …” Making sense of science stories year: 2005 ident: e_1_2_6_37_1 – volume-title: Do we still need peer review? An argument for change year: 2013 ident: e_1_2_6_15_1
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Title	Growth rates of modern science: A bibliometric analysis based on the number of publications and cited references
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