Increasing accuracy of lake nutrient predictions in thousands of lakes by leveraging water clarity data

Aquatic scientists require robust, accurate information about nutrient concentrations and indicators of algal biomass in unsampled lakes in order to understand and predict the effects of global climate and land‐use change. Historically, lake and landscape characteristics have been used as predictor...

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Published in:Limnology and oceanography letters Vol. 5; no. 2; pp. 228 - 235
Main Authors: Wagner, Tyler, Lottig, Noah R., Bartley, Meridith L., Hanks, Ephraim M., Schliep, Erin M., Wikle, Nathan B., King, Katelyn B. S., McCullough, Ian, Stachelek, Joseph, Cheruvelil, Kendra S., Filstrup, Christopher T., Lapierre, Jean Francois, Liu, Boyang, Soranno, Patricia A., Tan, Pang‐Ning, Wang, Qi, Webster, Katherine, Zhou, Jiayu
Format: Journal Article
Language:English
Published: Hoboken, USA John Wiley & Sons, Inc 01.04.2020
Wiley
Subjects:
Algae
Biomass
Chlorophyll
Climate change
Climate effects
Eutrophication
Lakes
Land use
Nutrient concentrations
Nutrients
Phosphorus
Population
Productivity
Variables
Water quality
United States > US
ISSN:2378-2242, 2378-2242
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Abstract Aquatic scientists require robust, accurate information about nutrient concentrations and indicators of algal biomass in unsampled lakes in order to understand and predict the effects of global climate and land‐use change. Historically, lake and landscape characteristics have been used as predictor variables in regression models to generate nutrient predictions, but often with significant uncertainty. An alternative approach to improve predictions is to leverage the observed relationship between water clarity and nutrients, which is possible because water clarity is more commonly measured than lake nutrients. We used a joint‐nutrient model that conditioned predictions of total phosphorus, nitrogen, and chlorophyll a on observed water clarity. Our results demonstrated substantial reductions (8–27%; median = 23%) in prediction error when conditioning on water clarity. These models will provide new opportunities for predicting nutrient concentrations of unsampled lakes across broad spatial scales with reduced uncertainty.
AbstractList Abstract Aquatic scientists require robust, accurate information about nutrient concentrations and indicators of algal biomass in unsampled lakes in order to understand and predict the effects of global climate and land‐use change. Historically, lake and landscape characteristics have been used as predictor variables in regression models to generate nutrient predictions, but often with significant uncertainty. An alternative approach to improve predictions is to leverage the observed relationship between water clarity and nutrients, which is possible because water clarity is more commonly measured than lake nutrients. We used a joint‐nutrient model that conditioned predictions of total phosphorus, nitrogen, and chlorophyll a on observed water clarity. Our results demonstrated substantial reductions (8–27%; median = 23%) in prediction error when conditioning on water clarity. These models will provide new opportunities for predicting nutrient concentrations of unsampled lakes across broad spatial scales with reduced uncertainty.
Aquatic scientists require robust, accurate information about nutrient concentrations and indicators of algal biomass in unsampled lakes in order to understand and predict the effects of global climate and land‐use change. Historically, lake and landscape characteristics have been used as predictor variables in regression models to generate nutrient predictions, but often with significant uncertainty. An alternative approach to improve predictions is to leverage the observed relationship between water clarity and nutrients, which is possible because water clarity is more commonly measured than lake nutrients. We used a joint‐nutrient model that conditioned predictions of total phosphorus, nitrogen, and chlorophyll a on observed water clarity. Our results demonstrated substantial reductions (8–27%; median = 23%) in prediction error when conditioning on water clarity. These models will provide new opportunities for predicting nutrient concentrations of unsampled lakes across broad spatial scales with reduced uncertainty.
Aquatic scientists require robust, accurate information about nutrient concentrations and indicators of algal biomass in unsampled lakes in order to understand and predict the effects of global climate and land‐use change. Historically, lake and landscape characteristics have been used as predictor variables in regression models to generate nutrient predictions, but often with significant uncertainty. An alternative approach to improve predictions is to leverage the observed relationship between water clarity and nutrients, which is possible because water clarity is more commonly measured than lake nutrients. We used a joint‐nutrient model that conditioned predictions of total phosphorus, nitrogen, and chlorophyll  a on observed water clarity. Our results demonstrated substantial reductions (8–27%; median = 23%) in prediction error when conditioning on water clarity. These models will provide new opportunities for predicting nutrient concentrations of unsampled lakes across broad spatial scales with reduced uncertainty.
Author Cheruvelil, Kendra S.
Liu, Boyang
Bartley, Meridith L.
Filstrup, Christopher T.
Webster, Katherine
King, Katelyn B. S.
Schliep, Erin M.
Wikle, Nathan B.
McCullough, Ian
Stachelek, Joseph
Lapierre, Jean Francois
Zhou, Jiayu
Wagner, Tyler
Soranno, Patricia A.
Wang, Qi
Lottig, Noah R.
Tan, Pang‐Ning
Hanks, Ephraim M.
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  givenname: Tyler
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  organization: Michigan State University
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  organization: Michigan State University
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  organization: Natural Resources Research Institute, University of Minnesota Duluth
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  organization: Universite de Montreal
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  organization: Michigan State University
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  organization: Michigan State University
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  fullname: Wang, Qi
  organization: Michigan State University
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  surname: Webster
  fullname: Webster, Katherine
  organization: Michigan State University
– sequence: 18
  givenname: Jiayu
  surname: Zhou
  fullname: Zhou, Jiayu
  organization: Michigan State University
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Snippet Aquatic scientists require robust, accurate information about nutrient concentrations and indicators of algal biomass in unsampled lakes in order to understand...
Abstract Aquatic scientists require robust, accurate information about nutrient concentrations and indicators of algal biomass in unsampled lakes in order to...
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StartPage 228
SubjectTerms Algae
Biomass
Chlorophyll
Climate change
Climate effects
Eutrophication
Lakes
Land use
Nutrient concentrations
Nutrients
Phosphorus
Population
Productivity
Variables
Water quality
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Title Increasing accuracy of lake nutrient predictions in thousands of lakes by leveraging water clarity data
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