Visualizing Time-Specific Hurricane Predictions, with Uncertainty, from Storm Path Ensembles
The U.S. National Hurricane Center (NHC) issues advisories every six hours during the life of a hurricane. These advisories describe the current state of the storm, and its predicted path, size, and wind speed over the next five days. However, from these data alone, the question “What is the likelih...
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| Vydáno v: | Computer graphics forum Ročník 34; číslo 3; s. 371 - 380 |
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Blackwell Publishing Ltd
01.06.2015
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| ISSN: | 0167-7055, 1467-8659 |
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| Abstract | The U.S. National Hurricane Center (NHC) issues advisories every six hours during the life of a hurricane. These advisories describe the current state of the storm, and its predicted path, size, and wind speed over the next five days. However, from these data alone, the question “What is the likelihood that the storm will hit Houston with hurricane strength winds between 12:00 and 14:00 on Saturday?” cannot be directly answered. To address this issue, the NHC has recently begun making an ensemble of potential storm paths available as part of each storm advisory. Since each path is parameterized by time, predicted values such as wind speed associated with the path can be inferred for a specific time period by analyzing the statistics of the ensemble. This paper proposes an approach for generating smooth scalar fields from such a predicted storm path ensemble, allowing the user to examine the predicted state of the storm at any chosen time. As a demonstration task, we show how our approach can be used to support a visualization tool, allowing the user to display predicted storm position – including its uncertainty – at any time in the forecast. In our approach, we estimate the likelihood of hurricane risk for a fixed time at any geospatial location by interpolating simplicial depth values in the path ensemble. Adaptivelysized radial basis functions are used to carry out the interpolation. Finally, geometric fitting is used to produce a simple graphical visualization of this likelihood. We also employ a non‐linear filter, in time, to assure frame‐to‐frame coherency in the visualization as the prediction time is advanced. We explain the underlying algorithm and definitions, and give a number of examples of how our algorithm performs for several different storm predictions, and for two different sources of predicted path ensembles. |
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| AbstractList | The U.S. National Hurricane Center (NHC) issues advisories every six hours during the life of a hurricane. These advisories describe the current state of the storm, and its predicted path, size, and wind speed over the next five days. However, from these data alone, the question “What is the likelihood that the storm will hit Houston with hurricane strength winds between 12:00 and 14:00 on Saturday?” cannot be directly answered. To address this issue, the NHC has recently begun making an ensemble of potential storm paths available as part of each storm advisory. Since each path is parameterized by time, predicted values such as wind speed associated with the path can be inferred for a specific time period by analyzing the statistics of the ensemble. This paper proposes an approach for generating smooth scalar fields from such a predicted storm path ensemble, allowing the user to examine the predicted state of the storm at any chosen time. As a demonstration task, we show how our approach can be used to support a visualization tool, allowing the user to display predicted storm position – including its uncertainty – at any time in the forecast. In our approach, we estimate the likelihood of hurricane risk for a fixed time at any geospatial location by interpolating simplicial depth values in the path ensemble. Adaptivelysized radial basis functions are used to carry out the interpolation. Finally, geometric fitting is used to produce a simple graphical visualization of this likelihood. We also employ a non‐linear filter, in time, to assure frame‐to‐frame coherency in the visualization as the prediction time is advanced. We explain the underlying algorithm and definitions, and give a number of examples of how our algorithm performs for several different storm predictions, and for two different sources of predicted path ensembles. |
| Author | Kirby, R.M. Whitaker, R. Mirzargar, M. Liu, L. House, D. H. |
| Author_xml | – sequence: 1 givenname: L. surname: Liu fullname: Liu, L. organization: Clemson University – sequence: 2 givenname: M. surname: Mirzargar fullname: Mirzargar, M. organization: University of Utah – sequence: 3 givenname: R.M. surname: Kirby fullname: Kirby, R.M. organization: University of Utah – sequence: 4 givenname: R. surname: Whitaker fullname: Whitaker, R. organization: University of Utah – sequence: 5 givenname: D. H. surname: House fullname: House, D. H. organization: Clemson University |
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| Cites_doi | 10.1109/MCG.2007.323435 10.1007/978-3-540-71158-2_12 10.1109/SIBGRA.2002.1167130 10.1145/383259.383266 10.1615/Int.J.UncertaintyQuantification.2012003966 10.1214/aos/1176347507 10.1145/2614028.2615425 10.1007/s003710050111 10.1109/TVCG.2014.2346455 10.1007/978-3-642-32677-6_15 10.2307/2986073 10.1109/TVCG.2013.143 10.1175/BAMS-88-5-651 |
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| References_xml | – reference: Broad K., Leiserowitz A., Weinkle J., Steketee M.: Misinterpretations of the "cone of uncertainty" in Florida during the 2004 hurricane season. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 88, 5 (2014/11/11 2007), 651-667. 2 – reference: Broomhead D.S., Lowe D.: Multivariable functional interpolation and adaptive networks. Complex Systems 2 (1988), 321-355. 4 – reference: Pang A.T., Wittenbrink C.M., Lodh S.K.: Approaches to uncertainty visualization. The Visual Computer 13 (1996), 370-390. 3 – reference: Rousseeuw P.J., Ruts I.: Algorithm AS 307: Bivariate location depth. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. Series C (Applied Statistics) 45, 4 (1996), pp. 516-526. 3, 5 – reference: Pang A.: Visualizing uncertainty in natural hazards. In Risk Assessment, Modeling and Decision Support, vol. 14 of Risk, Governance and Society. 2008, pp. 261-294. 3 – reference: Cox J., House D., Lindell M.: Visualizing uncertainty in predicted hurricane tracks. International Journal of Uncertainty Quantification 3, 2 (2013), 143-156. 2, 7 – reference: Whitaker R., Mirzargar M., Kirby R.: Contour boxplots: A method for characterizing uncertainty in feature sets from simulation ensembles. Visualization and Computer Graphics, IEEE Transactions on 19, 12 (Dec 2013), 2713-2722. 3 – reference: Liu, Y. R.: On a notion of data depth based on random simplices. The Annals of Statistics 18, 1 (1990), 405-414. 3 – reference: Borland D., Taylor R.: Rainbow color map (still) considered harmful. Computer Graphics and Applications, IEEE 27, 2 (March 2007), 14-17. 5 – reference: Mirzargar M., Whitaker R., Kirby R.: Curve boxplot: Generalization of boxplot for ensembles of curves. Visualization and Computer Graphics, IEEE Transactions on 20, 12 (Dec 2014), 2654-2663. 3 – volume: 3 start-page: 143 issue: 2 year: 2013 end-page: 156 article-title: Visualizing uncertainty in predicted hurricane tracks publication-title: International Journal of Uncertainty Quantification – volume: 19 start-page: 2713 issue: 12 year: 2013 end-page: 2722 article-title: Contour boxplots: A method for characterizing uncertainty in feature sets from simulation ensembles publication-title: Visualization and Computer Graphics, IEEE Transactions on – volume: 20 start-page: 2654 issue: 12 year: 2014 end-page: 2663 article-title: Curve boxplot: Generalization of boxplot for ensembles of curves publication-title: Visualization and Computer Graphics, IEEE Transactions on – volume: 27 start-page: 14 issue: 2 year: 2007 end-page: 17 article-title: Rainbow color map (still) considered harmful publication-title: Computer Graphics and Applications, IEEE – volume: 45 start-page: 516 issue: 4 year: 1996 end-page: 526 article-title: Algorithm AS 307: Bivariate location depth publication-title: Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. Series C (Applied Statistics) – volume: 14 start-page: 261 year: 2008 end-page: 294 article-title: Visualizing uncertainty in natural hazards publication-title: Risk Assessment, Modeling and Decision Support – volume: 2 start-page: 321 year: 1988 end-page: 355 article-title: Multivariable functional interpolation and adaptive networks publication-title: Complex Systems – year: 1996 – volume: 18 start-page: 405 issue: 1 year: 1990 end-page: 414 article-title: On a notion of data depth based on random simplices publication-title: The Annals of Statistics – start-page: 28 year: 2014 end-page: 31 – volume: 13 start-page: 370 year: 1996 end-page: 390 article-title: Approaches to uncertainty visualization publication-title: The Visual Computer – start-page: 226 year: 2012 end-page: 249 – start-page: 67 year: 2001 end-page: 76 – year: 2014 – volume: 88 start-page: 651 issue: 5 year: 2007 end-page: 667 article-title: Misinterpretations of the “cone of uncertainty” in Florida during the 2004 hurricane season publication-title: Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society – year: 2013 – start-page: 99 year: 2002 end-page: 105 – ident: e_1_2_7_6_2 doi: 10.1109/MCG.2007.323435 – ident: e_1_2_7_16_2 – ident: e_1_2_7_17_2 doi: 10.1007/978-3-540-71158-2_12 – ident: e_1_2_7_13_2 – ident: e_1_2_7_21_2 doi: 10.1109/SIBGRA.2002.1167130 – ident: e_1_2_7_7_2 doi: 10.1145/383259.383266 – ident: e_1_2_7_9_2 doi: 10.1615/Int.J.UncertaintyQuantification.2012003966 – ident: e_1_2_7_14_2 – ident: e_1_2_7_10_2 doi: 10.1214/aos/1176347507 – ident: e_1_2_7_3_2 – ident: e_1_2_7_2_2 doi: 10.1145/2614028.2615425 – ident: e_1_2_7_19_2 doi: 10.1007/s003710050111 – ident: e_1_2_7_8_2 – ident: e_1_2_7_11_2 doi: 10.1109/TVCG.2014.2346455 – ident: e_1_2_7_18_2 doi: 10.1007/978-3-642-32677-6_15 – volume: 2 start-page: 321 year: 1988 ident: e_1_2_7_4_2 article-title: Multivariable functional interpolation and adaptive networks publication-title: Complex Systems – ident: e_1_2_7_20_2 doi: 10.2307/2986073 – ident: e_1_2_7_22_2 doi: 10.1109/TVCG.2013.143 – ident: e_1_2_7_12_2 – ident: e_1_2_7_15_2 – ident: e_1_2_7_5_2 doi: 10.1175/BAMS-88-5-651 |
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| SubjectTerms | Algorithms Analysis Categories and Subject Descriptors (according to ACM CCS) Computer graphics Emergency preparedness ensembles Fittings hurricane prediction Hurricanes I.3.3 [Computer Graphics]: Picture/Image Generation-Viewing algorithms I.3.3 [Computer Graphics]: Picture/Image Generation—Viewing algorithms, information visualization, uncertainty, ensembles, hurricane prediction information visualization Predictions Storms Studies Uncertainty Visualization Wind speed |
| Title | Visualizing Time-Specific Hurricane Predictions, with Uncertainty, from Storm Path Ensembles |
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