Trends and cyclical variation in the incidence of childhood type 1 diabetes in 26 European centres in the 25 year period 1989–2013: a multicentre prospective registration study

Aims/hypothesis Against a background of a near-universally increasing incidence of childhood type 1 diabetes, recent reports from some countries suggest a slowing in this increase. Occasional reports also describe cyclical variations in incidence, with periodicities of between 4 and 6 years. Methods...

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Vydáno v:Diabetologia Ročník 62; číslo 3; s. 408 - 417
Hlavní autoři: Patterson, Christopher C., Harjutsalo, Valma, Rosenbauer, Joachim, Neu, Andreas, Cinek, Ondrej, Skrivarhaug, Torild, Rami-Merhar, Birgit, Soltesz, Gyula, Svensson, Jannet, Parslow, Roger C., Castell, Conxa, Schoenle, Eugen J., Bingley, Polly J., Dahlquist, Gisela, Jarosz-Chobot, Przemysława K., Marčiulionytė, Dalė, Roche, Edna F., Rothe, Ulrike, Bratina, Natasa, Ionescu-Tirgoviste, Constantin, Weets, Ilse, Kocova, Mirjana, Cherubini, Valentino, Rojnic Putarek, Natasa, deBeaufort, Carine E., Samardzic, Mira, Green, Anders
Médium: Journal Article
Jazyk:angličtina
Vydáno: Berlin/Heidelberg Springer Berlin Heidelberg 01.03.2019
Springer Nature B.V
Témata:
Adolescent
Age groups
Child
Child, Preschool
Childhood
Children
Childrens health
Diabetes
Diabetes mellitus
Diabetes mellitus (insulin dependent)
Diabetes Mellitus, Type 1 - epidemiology
Epidemiology
Europe - epidemiology
Female
Human Physiology
Humans
Incidence
Infant
Infant, Newborn
Internal Medicine
Male
Medicine
Medicine & Public Health
Metabolic Diseases
Pediatrics
Periodicity
Prospective Studies
Registries
Trends
Europe
Temporal change
Cyclical variation
Epidemiology
Incidence
Type 1 diabetes mellitus
ISSN:0012-186X, 1432-0428, 1432-0428
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Shrnutí:Aims/hypothesis Against a background of a near-universally increasing incidence of childhood type 1 diabetes, recent reports from some countries suggest a slowing in this increase. Occasional reports also describe cyclical variations in incidence, with periodicities of between 4 and 6 years. Methods Age/sex-standardised incidence rates for the 0- to 14-year-old age group are reported for 26 European centres (representing 22 countries) that have registered newly diagnosed individuals in geographically defined regions for up to 25 years during the period 1989–2013. Poisson regression was used to estimate rates of increase and test for cyclical patterns. Joinpoint regression software was used to fit segmented log-linear relationships to incidence trends. Results Significant increases in incidence were noted in all but two small centres, with a maximum rate of increase of 6.6% per annum in a Polish centre. Several centres in high-incidence countries showed reducing rates of increase in more recent years. Despite this, a pooled analysis across all centres revealed a 3.4% (95% CI 2.8%, 3.9%) per annum increase in incidence rate, although there was some suggestion of a reduced rate of increase in the 2004–2008 period. Rates of increase were similar in boys and girls in the 0- to 4-year-old age group (3.7% and 3.7% per annum, respectively) and in the 5- to 9-year-old age group (3.4% and 3.7% per annum, respectively), but were higher in boys than girls in the 10- to 14-year-old age group (3.3% and 2.6% per annum, respectively). Significant 4 year periodicity was detected in four centres, with three centres showing that the most recent peak in fitted rates occurred in 2012. Conclusions/interpretation Despite reductions in the rate of increase in some high-risk countries, the pooled estimate across centres continues to show a 3.4% increase per annum in incidence rate, suggesting a doubling in incidence rate within approximately 20 years in Europe. Although four centres showed support for a cyclical pattern of incidence with a 4 year periodicity, no plausible explanation for this can be given.
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ISSN:0012-186X
1432-0428
1432-0428
DOI:10.1007/s00125-018-4763-3