Trends and cyclical variation in the incidence of childhood type 1 diabetes in 26 European centres in the 25 year period 1989–2013: a multicentre prospective registration study

Aims/hypothesis Against a background of a near-universally increasing incidence of childhood type 1 diabetes, recent reports from some countries suggest a slowing in this increase. Occasional reports also describe cyclical variations in incidence, with periodicities of between 4 and 6 years. Methods...

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Vydané v:	Diabetologia Ročník 62; číslo 3; s. 408 - 417
Hlavní autori:	Patterson, Christopher C., Harjutsalo, Valma, Rosenbauer, Joachim, Neu, Andreas, Cinek, Ondrej, Skrivarhaug, Torild, Rami-Merhar, Birgit, Soltesz, Gyula, Svensson, Jannet, Parslow, Roger C., Castell, Conxa, Schoenle, Eugen J., Bingley, Polly J., Dahlquist, Gisela, Jarosz-Chobot, Przemysława K., Marčiulionytė, Dalė, Roche, Edna F., Rothe, Ulrike, Bratina, Natasa, Ionescu-Tirgoviste, Constantin, Weets, Ilse, Kocova, Mirjana, Cherubini, Valentino, Rojnic Putarek, Natasa, deBeaufort, Carine E., Samardzic, Mira, Green, Anders
Médium:	Journal Article
Jazyk:	English
Vydavateľské údaje:	Berlin/Heidelberg Springer Berlin Heidelberg 01.03.2019 Springer Nature B.V
Predmet:	Adolescent Age groups Child Child, Preschool Childhood Children Childrens health Diabetes Diabetes mellitus Diabetes mellitus (insulin dependent) Diabetes Mellitus, Type 1 - epidemiology Epidemiology Europe - epidemiology Female Human Physiology Humans Incidence Infant Infant, Newborn Internal Medicine Male Medicine Medicine & Public Health Metabolic Diseases Pediatrics Periodicity Prospective Studies Registries Trends Europe Temporal change Cyclical variation Epidemiology Incidence Type 1 diabetes mellitus
ISSN:	0012-186X, 1432-0428, 1432-0428
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Abstract	Aims/hypothesis Against a background of a near-universally increasing incidence of childhood type 1 diabetes, recent reports from some countries suggest a slowing in this increase. Occasional reports also describe cyclical variations in incidence, with periodicities of between 4 and 6 years. Methods Age/sex-standardised incidence rates for the 0- to 14-year-old age group are reported for 26 European centres (representing 22 countries) that have registered newly diagnosed individuals in geographically defined regions for up to 25 years during the period 1989–2013. Poisson regression was used to estimate rates of increase and test for cyclical patterns. Joinpoint regression software was used to fit segmented log-linear relationships to incidence trends. Results Significant increases in incidence were noted in all but two small centres, with a maximum rate of increase of 6.6% per annum in a Polish centre. Several centres in high-incidence countries showed reducing rates of increase in more recent years. Despite this, a pooled analysis across all centres revealed a 3.4% (95% CI 2.8%, 3.9%) per annum increase in incidence rate, although there was some suggestion of a reduced rate of increase in the 2004–2008 period. Rates of increase were similar in boys and girls in the 0- to 4-year-old age group (3.7% and 3.7% per annum, respectively) and in the 5- to 9-year-old age group (3.4% and 3.7% per annum, respectively), but were higher in boys than girls in the 10- to 14-year-old age group (3.3% and 2.6% per annum, respectively). Significant 4 year periodicity was detected in four centres, with three centres showing that the most recent peak in fitted rates occurred in 2012. Conclusions/interpretation Despite reductions in the rate of increase in some high-risk countries, the pooled estimate across centres continues to show a 3.4% increase per annum in incidence rate, suggesting a doubling in incidence rate within approximately 20 years in Europe. Although four centres showed support for a cyclical pattern of incidence with a 4 year periodicity, no plausible explanation for this can be given.
AbstractList	Aims/hypothesis Against a background of a near-universally increasing incidence of childhood type 1 diabetes, recent reports from some countries suggest a slowing in this increase. Occasional reports also describe cyclical variations in incidence, with periodicities of between 4 and 6 years. Methods Age/sex-standardised incidence rates for the 0- to 14-year-old age group are reported for 26 European centres (representing 22 countries) that have registered newly diagnosed individuals in geographically defined regions for up to 25 years during the period 1989–2013. Poisson regression was used to estimate rates of increase and test for cyclical patterns. Joinpoint regression software was used to fit segmented log-linear relationships to incidence trends. Results Significant increases in incidence were noted in all but two small centres, with a maximum rate of increase of 6.6% per annum in a Polish centre. Several centres in high-incidence countries showed reducing rates of increase in more recent years. Despite this, a pooled analysis across all centres revealed a 3.4% (95% CI 2.8%, 3.9%) per annum increase in incidence rate, although there was some suggestion of a reduced rate of increase in the 2004–2008 period. Rates of increase were similar in boys and girls in the 0- to 4-year-old age group (3.7% and 3.7% per annum, respectively) and in the 5- to 9-year-old age group (3.4% and 3.7% per annum, respectively), but were higher in boys than girls in the 10- to 14-year-old age group (3.3% and 2.6% per annum, respectively). Significant 4 year periodicity was detected in four centres, with three centres showing that the most recent peak in fitted rates occurred in 2012. Conclusions/interpretation Despite reductions in the rate of increase in some high-risk countries, the pooled estimate across centres continues to show a 3.4% increase per annum in incidence rate, suggesting a doubling in incidence rate within approximately 20 years in Europe. Although four centres showed support for a cyclical pattern of incidence with a 4 year periodicity, no plausible explanation for this can be given. Against a background of a near-universally increasing incidence of childhood type 1 diabetes, recent reports from some countries suggest a slowing in this increase. Occasional reports also describe cyclical variations in incidence, with periodicities of between 4 and 6 years. Age/sex-standardised incidence rates for the 0- to 14-year-old age group are reported for 26 European centres (representing 22 countries) that have registered newly diagnosed individuals in geographically defined regions for up to 25 years during the period 1989-2013. Poisson regression was used to estimate rates of increase and test for cyclical patterns. Joinpoint regression software was used to fit segmented log-linear relationships to incidence trends. Significant increases in incidence were noted in all but two small centres, with a maximum rate of increase of 6.6% per annum in a Polish centre. Several centres in high-incidence countries showed reducing rates of increase in more recent years. Despite this, a pooled analysis across all centres revealed a 3.4% (95% CI 2.8%, 3.9%) per annum increase in incidence rate, although there was some suggestion of a reduced rate of increase in the 2004-2008 period. Rates of increase were similar in boys and girls in the 0- to 4-year-old age group (3.7% and 3.7% per annum, respectively) and in the 5- to 9-year-old age group (3.4% and 3.7% per annum, respectively), but were higher in boys than girls in the 10- to 14-year-old age group (3.3% and 2.6% per annum, respectively). Significant 4 year periodicity was detected in four centres, with three centres showing that the most recent peak in fitted rates occurred in 2012. Despite reductions in the rate of increase in some high-risk countries, the pooled estimate across centres continues to show a 3.4% increase per annum in incidence rate, suggesting a doubling in incidence rate within approximately 20 years in Europe. Although four centres showed support for a cyclical pattern of incidence with a 4 year periodicity, no plausible explanation for this can be given. Against a background of a near-universally increasing incidence of childhood type 1 diabetes, recent reports from some countries suggest a slowing in this increase. Occasional reports also describe cyclical variations in incidence, with periodicities of between 4 and 6 years.AIMS/HYPOTHESISAgainst a background of a near-universally increasing incidence of childhood type 1 diabetes, recent reports from some countries suggest a slowing in this increase. Occasional reports also describe cyclical variations in incidence, with periodicities of between 4 and 6 years.Age/sex-standardised incidence rates for the 0- to 14-year-old age group are reported for 26 European centres (representing 22 countries) that have registered newly diagnosed individuals in geographically defined regions for up to 25 years during the period 1989-2013. Poisson regression was used to estimate rates of increase and test for cyclical patterns. Joinpoint regression software was used to fit segmented log-linear relationships to incidence trends.METHODSAge/sex-standardised incidence rates for the 0- to 14-year-old age group are reported for 26 European centres (representing 22 countries) that have registered newly diagnosed individuals in geographically defined regions for up to 25 years during the period 1989-2013. Poisson regression was used to estimate rates of increase and test for cyclical patterns. Joinpoint regression software was used to fit segmented log-linear relationships to incidence trends.Significant increases in incidence were noted in all but two small centres, with a maximum rate of increase of 6.6% per annum in a Polish centre. Several centres in high-incidence countries showed reducing rates of increase in more recent years. Despite this, a pooled analysis across all centres revealed a 3.4% (95% CI 2.8%, 3.9%) per annum increase in incidence rate, although there was some suggestion of a reduced rate of increase in the 2004-2008 period. Rates of increase were similar in boys and girls in the 0- to 4-year-old age group (3.7% and 3.7% per annum, respectively) and in the 5- to 9-year-old age group (3.4% and 3.7% per annum, respectively), but were higher in boys than girls in the 10- to 14-year-old age group (3.3% and 2.6% per annum, respectively). Significant 4 year periodicity was detected in four centres, with three centres showing that the most recent peak in fitted rates occurred in 2012.RESULTSSignificant increases in incidence were noted in all but two small centres, with a maximum rate of increase of 6.6% per annum in a Polish centre. Several centres in high-incidence countries showed reducing rates of increase in more recent years. Despite this, a pooled analysis across all centres revealed a 3.4% (95% CI 2.8%, 3.9%) per annum increase in incidence rate, although there was some suggestion of a reduced rate of increase in the 2004-2008 period. Rates of increase were similar in boys and girls in the 0- to 4-year-old age group (3.7% and 3.7% per annum, respectively) and in the 5- to 9-year-old age group (3.4% and 3.7% per annum, respectively), but were higher in boys than girls in the 10- to 14-year-old age group (3.3% and 2.6% per annum, respectively). Significant 4 year periodicity was detected in four centres, with three centres showing that the most recent peak in fitted rates occurred in 2012.Despite reductions in the rate of increase in some high-risk countries, the pooled estimate across centres continues to show a 3.4% increase per annum in incidence rate, suggesting a doubling in incidence rate within approximately 20 years in Europe. Although four centres showed support for a cyclical pattern of incidence with a 4 year periodicity, no plausible explanation for this can be given.CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATIONDespite reductions in the rate of increase in some high-risk countries, the pooled estimate across centres continues to show a 3.4% increase per annum in incidence rate, suggesting a doubling in incidence rate within approximately 20 years in Europe. Although four centres showed support for a cyclical pattern of incidence with a 4 year periodicity, no plausible explanation for this can be given. Aims/hypothesisAgainst a background of a near-universally increasing incidence of childhood type 1 diabetes, recent reports from some countries suggest a slowing in this increase. Occasional reports also describe cyclical variations in incidence, with periodicities of between 4 and 6 years.MethodsAge/sex-standardised incidence rates for the 0- to 14-year-old age group are reported for 26 European centres (representing 22 countries) that have registered newly diagnosed individuals in geographically defined regions for up to 25 years during the period 1989–2013. Poisson regression was used to estimate rates of increase and test for cyclical patterns. Joinpoint regression software was used to fit segmented log-linear relationships to incidence trends.ResultsSignificant increases in incidence were noted in all but two small centres, with a maximum rate of increase of 6.6% per annum in a Polish centre. Several centres in high-incidence countries showed reducing rates of increase in more recent years. Despite this, a pooled analysis across all centres revealed a 3.4% (95% CI 2.8%, 3.9%) per annum increase in incidence rate, although there was some suggestion of a reduced rate of increase in the 2004–2008 period. Rates of increase were similar in boys and girls in the 0- to 4-year-old age group (3.7% and 3.7% per annum, respectively) and in the 5- to 9-year-old age group (3.4% and 3.7% per annum, respectively), but were higher in boys than girls in the 10- to 14-year-old age group (3.3% and 2.6% per annum, respectively). Significant 4 year periodicity was detected in four centres, with three centres showing that the most recent peak in fitted rates occurred in 2012.Conclusions/interpretationDespite reductions in the rate of increase in some high-risk countries, the pooled estimate across centres continues to show a 3.4% increase per annum in incidence rate, suggesting a doubling in incidence rate within approximately 20 years in Europe. Although four centres showed support for a cyclical pattern of incidence with a 4 year periodicity, no plausible explanation for this can be given.
Author	Kocova, Mirjana Patterson, Christopher C. Marčiulionytė, Dalė Bingley, Polly J. Rothe, Ulrike Green, Anders Roche, Edna F. Parslow, Roger C. Cherubini, Valentino Weets, Ilse Neu, Andreas Harjutsalo, Valma Rami-Merhar, Birgit Skrivarhaug, Torild Rosenbauer, Joachim Schoenle, Eugen J. Rojnic Putarek, Natasa Dahlquist, Gisela Jarosz-Chobot, Przemysława K. Cinek, Ondrej Samardzic, Mira deBeaufort, Carine E. Svensson, Jannet Ionescu-Tirgoviste, Constantin Castell, Conxa Soltesz, Gyula Bratina, Natasa
Author_xml	– sequence: 1 givenname: Christopher C. surname: Patterson fullname: Patterson, Christopher C. email: c.patterson@qub.ac.uk organization: Centre for Public Health and UKCRC Centre of Excellence for Public Health Northern Ireland, Queen’s University Belfast – sequence: 2 givenname: Valma surname: Harjutsalo fullname: Harjutsalo, Valma organization: Folkhälsan Institute of Genetics, Folkhälsan Research Center – sequence: 3 givenname: Joachim surname: Rosenbauer fullname: Rosenbauer, Joachim organization: German Diabetes Center, Institute of Biometrics and Epidemiology, Leibniz Center for Diabetes Research at Heinrich Heine University Düsseldorf – sequence: 4 givenname: Andreas surname: Neu fullname: Neu, Andreas organization: University Children’s Hospital – sequence: 5 givenname: Ondrej surname: Cinek fullname: Cinek, Ondrej organization: Department of Pediatrics, Second Faculty of Medicine, Charles University and University Hospital Motol – sequence: 6 givenname: Torild surname: Skrivarhaug fullname: Skrivarhaug, Torild organization: Division of Adolescent and Paediatric Medicine, Institute of Clinical Medicine, University of Oslo, Oslo University Hospital – sequence: 7 givenname: Birgit surname: Rami-Merhar fullname: Rami-Merhar, Birgit organization: Department of Pediatric and Adolescent Medicine, Medical University of Vienna – sequence: 8 givenname: Gyula surname: Soltesz fullname: Soltesz, Gyula organization: Department of Paediatrics, Medical School, University of Pécs – sequence: 9 givenname: Jannet surname: Svensson fullname: Svensson, Jannet organization: Department of Paediatrics and Adolescent Medicine, Copenhagen University Hospital – sequence: 10 givenname: Roger C. surname: Parslow fullname: Parslow, Roger C. organization: Leeds Institute of Cardiovascular and Metabolic Medicine, University of Leeds – sequence: 11 givenname: Conxa surname: Castell fullname: Castell, Conxa organization: Department of Health, Government of Catalonia – sequence: 12 givenname: Eugen J. surname: Schoenle fullname: Schoenle, Eugen J. organization: Department of Endocrinology and Diabetology, University Children’s Hospital – sequence: 13 givenname: Polly J. surname: Bingley fullname: Bingley, Polly J. organization: Diabetes and Metabolism, Bristol Medical School, University of Bristol – sequence: 14 givenname: Gisela surname: Dahlquist fullname: Dahlquist, Gisela organization: Department of Clinical Sciences, Paediatrics, University of Umeå – sequence: 15 givenname: Przemysława K. surname: Jarosz-Chobot fullname: Jarosz-Chobot, Przemysława K. organization: Department of Children’s Diabetology, Medical University of Silesia – sequence: 16 givenname: Dalė surname: Marčiulionytė fullname: Marčiulionytė, Dalė organization: Institute of Endocrinology, Lithuanian University of Health Sciences, Institute of Microbiology and Virology, Lithuanian University of Health Sciences – sequence: 17 givenname: Edna F. surname: Roche fullname: Roche, Edna F. organization: Department of Paediatrics, Tallaght University Hospital, Trinity College Dublin, The University of Dublin – sequence: 18 givenname: Ulrike surname: Rothe fullname: Rothe, Ulrike organization: Health Sciences/Public Health, Faculty of Medicine Carl Gustav Carus, Technische Universität Dresden – sequence: 19 givenname: Natasa surname: Bratina fullname: Bratina, Natasa organization: Diabetes and Metabolic Diseases, University Children’s Hospital, Department of Endocrinology – sequence: 20 givenname: Constantin surname: Ionescu-Tirgoviste fullname: Ionescu-Tirgoviste, Constantin organization: National Institute of Diabetes Nutrition and Metabolic Diseases, NC Paulescu – sequence: 21 givenname: Ilse surname: Weets fullname: Weets, Ilse organization: Diabetes Research Center and Laboratory of Clinical Biology, Brussels Free University–Vrije Universiteit Brussel, University Hospital Brussels–Universitair Ziekenhuis Brussel – sequence: 22 givenname: Mirjana surname: Kocova fullname: Kocova, Mirjana organization: Department of Endocrinology and Genetics, University Children’s Hospital – sequence: 23 givenname: Valentino surname: Cherubini fullname: Cherubini, Valentino organization: Division of Paediatric Diabetes, Azienda University Hospital – sequence: 24 givenname: Natasa surname: Rojnic Putarek fullname: Rojnic Putarek, Natasa organization: Department of Pediatric Endocrinology and Diabetes, University Hospital Zagreb – sequence: 25 givenname: Carine E. surname: deBeaufort fullname: deBeaufort, Carine E. organization: Department of Paediatric Diabetes and Endocrinology, University of Luxembourg – sequence: 26 givenname: Mira surname: Samardzic fullname: Samardzic, Mira organization: Department of Endocrinology, Institute for Sick Children – sequence: 27 givenname: Anders surname: Green fullname: Green, Anders organization: Odense Patient data Exploratory Network (OPEN), Odense University Hospital/Department of Clinical Research, University of Southern Denmark
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– volume: 95 start-page: 25 issue: 1 year: 2010 ident: 4763_CR27 publication-title: J Clin Endocrinol Metab doi: 10.1210/jc.2009-1365 – volume: 22 start-page: 745 issue: 4 year: 1995 ident: 4763_CR22 publication-title: J Rheumatol – volume: 17 start-page: 368 issue: 5 year: 2016 ident: 4763_CR32 publication-title: Pediatr Diabetes doi: 10.1111/pedi.12291 – volume: 339 start-page: 905 issue: 8798 year: 1992 ident: 4763_CR14 publication-title: Lancet doi: 10.1016/0140-6736(92)90938-Y – volume: 60 start-page: 577 issue: 2 year: 2011 ident: 4763_CR6 publication-title: Diabetes doi: 10.2337/db10-0813 – volume: 120 start-page: 48 issue: 1 year: 1957 ident: 4763_CR20 publication-title: J R Stat Soc Ser A doi: 10.2307/2342553 – volume: 19 start-page: 637 issue: 4 year: 2018 ident: 4763_CR30 publication-title: Pediatr Diabetes doi: 10.1111/pedi.12622 – volume: 35 start-page: 737 issue: 6 year: 2018 ident: 4763_CR31 publication-title: Diabet Med doi: 10.1111/dme.13609 – volume: 15 start-page: 4 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Snippet	Aims/hypothesis Against a background of a near-universally increasing incidence of childhood type 1 diabetes, recent reports from some countries suggest a... Against a background of a near-universally increasing incidence of childhood type 1 diabetes, recent reports from some countries suggest a slowing in this... Aims/hypothesisAgainst a background of a near-universally increasing incidence of childhood type 1 diabetes, recent reports from some countries suggest a...
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SubjectTerms	Adolescent Age groups Child Child, Preschool Childhood Children Childrens health Diabetes Diabetes mellitus Diabetes mellitus (insulin dependent) Diabetes Mellitus, Type 1 - epidemiology Epidemiology Europe - epidemiology Female Human Physiology Humans Incidence Infant Infant, Newborn Internal Medicine Male Medicine Medicine & Public Health Metabolic Diseases Pediatrics Periodicity Prospective Studies Registries Trends
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Title	Trends and cyclical variation in the incidence of childhood type 1 diabetes in 26 European centres in the 25 year period 1989–2013: a multicentre prospective registration study
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