Trends in the incidence and prevalence of atrial fibrillation in Iceland and future projections
Aims Data are scarce on the epidemiology of atrial fibrillation (AF) in Europe. The aim of this study was to examine recent trends in the incidence and prevalence of AF and project the prevalence to the year 2050. Methods and results From 1991 to 2008 a total of 4905 residents of Reykjavik, Iceland...
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| Veröffentlicht in: | Europace (London, England) Jg. 13; H. 8; S. 1110 - 1117 |
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| Sprache: | Englisch |
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England
Oxford University Press
01.08.2011
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| ISSN: | 1099-5129, 1532-2092, 1532-2092 |
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| Abstract | Aims
Data are scarce on the epidemiology of atrial fibrillation (AF) in Europe. The aim of this study was to examine recent trends in the incidence and prevalence of AF and project the prevalence to the year 2050.
Methods and results
From 1991 to 2008 a total of 4905 residents of Reykjavik, Iceland were diagnosed with AF at the city's main health care centre. The age-standardized incidence of AF increased in women (0.9% per year, 95% CI 0.1-1.8) but not in men (0.1% per year, 95% CI −0.6 to 0.9). The age-standardized prevalence increased per year by 1.8% (95% CI 1.3-2.3) in men and 2.3% (95% CI 1.7-2.9) in women from 1998 to 2008. The number of adults with AF in Iceland is projected to increase from 4495 (prevalence 2.0%) in 2008 to 11 088 (prevalence 3.5%) in 2050, if the incidence of AF and mortality remain constant beyond 2008. However, if the incidence continues to increase as it has and mortality decreases according to projections for the general population, the projected number will rise to 13 583 (prevalence 4.3%).
Conclusion
In this study in a northern European population, the incidence of AF increased in women but not men from 1991 to 2008. The prevalence of AF is currently high and the number of patients with AF is expected to triple in the next four decades. AF is already a serious public health problem and the burden of this disease could reach epidemic proportions in the coming years. |
|---|---|
| AbstractList | Aims
Data are scarce on the epidemiology of atrial fibrillation (AF) in Europe. The aim of this study was to examine recent trends in the incidence and prevalence of AF and project the prevalence to the year 2050.
Methods and results
From 1991 to 2008 a total of 4905 residents of Reykjavik, Iceland were diagnosed with AF at the city's main health care centre. The age-standardized incidence of AF increased in women (0.9% per year, 95% CI 0.1-1.8) but not in men (0.1% per year, 95% CI −0.6 to 0.9). The age-standardized prevalence increased per year by 1.8% (95% CI 1.3-2.3) in men and 2.3% (95% CI 1.7-2.9) in women from 1998 to 2008. The number of adults with AF in Iceland is projected to increase from 4495 (prevalence 2.0%) in 2008 to 11 088 (prevalence 3.5%) in 2050, if the incidence of AF and mortality remain constant beyond 2008. However, if the incidence continues to increase as it has and mortality decreases according to projections for the general population, the projected number will rise to 13 583 (prevalence 4.3%).
Conclusion
In this study in a northern European population, the incidence of AF increased in women but not men from 1991 to 2008. The prevalence of AF is currently high and the number of patients with AF is expected to triple in the next four decades. AF is already a serious public health problem and the burden of this disease could reach epidemic proportions in the coming years. Data are scarce on the epidemiology of atrial fibrillation (AF) in Europe. The aim of this study was to examine recent trends in the incidence and prevalence of AF and project the prevalence to the year 2050.AIMSData are scarce on the epidemiology of atrial fibrillation (AF) in Europe. The aim of this study was to examine recent trends in the incidence and prevalence of AF and project the prevalence to the year 2050.From 1991 to 2008 a total of 4905 residents of Reykjavik, Iceland were diagnosed with AF at the city's main health care centre. The age-standardized incidence of AF increased in women (0.9% per year, 95% CI 0.1-1.8) but not in men (0.1% per year, 95% CI -0.6 to 0.9). The age-standardized prevalence increased per year by 1.8% (95% CI 1.3-2.3) in men and 2.3% (95% CI 1.7-2.9) in women from 1998 to 2008. The number of adults with AF in Iceland is projected to increase from 4495 (prevalence 2.0%) in 2008 to 11 088 (prevalence 3.5%) in 2050, if the incidence of AF and mortality remain constant beyond 2008. However, if the incidence continues to increase as it has and mortality decreases according to projections for the general population, the projected number will rise to 13 583 (prevalence 4.3%).METHODS AND RESULTSFrom 1991 to 2008 a total of 4905 residents of Reykjavik, Iceland were diagnosed with AF at the city's main health care centre. The age-standardized incidence of AF increased in women (0.9% per year, 95% CI 0.1-1.8) but not in men (0.1% per year, 95% CI -0.6 to 0.9). The age-standardized prevalence increased per year by 1.8% (95% CI 1.3-2.3) in men and 2.3% (95% CI 1.7-2.9) in women from 1998 to 2008. The number of adults with AF in Iceland is projected to increase from 4495 (prevalence 2.0%) in 2008 to 11 088 (prevalence 3.5%) in 2050, if the incidence of AF and mortality remain constant beyond 2008. However, if the incidence continues to increase as it has and mortality decreases according to projections for the general population, the projected number will rise to 13 583 (prevalence 4.3%).In this study in a northern European population, the incidence of AF increased in women but not men from 1991 to 2008. The prevalence of AF is currently high and the number of patients with AF is expected to triple in the next four decades. AF is already a serious public health problem and the burden of this disease could reach epidemic proportions in the coming years.CONCLUSIONIn this study in a northern European population, the incidence of AF increased in women but not men from 1991 to 2008. The prevalence of AF is currently high and the number of patients with AF is expected to triple in the next four decades. AF is already a serious public health problem and the burden of this disease could reach epidemic proportions in the coming years. Data are scarce on the epidemiology of atrial fibrillation (AF) in Europe. The aim of this study was to examine recent trends in the incidence and prevalence of AF and project the prevalence to the year 2050. From 1991 to 2008 a total of 4905 residents of Reykjavik, Iceland were diagnosed with AF at the city's main health care centre. The age-standardized incidence of AF increased in women (0.9% per year, 95% CI 0.1-1.8) but not in men (0.1% per year, 95% CI -0.6 to 0.9). The age-standardized prevalence increased per year by 1.8% (95% CI 1.3-2.3) in men and 2.3% (95% CI 1.7-2.9) in women from 1998 to 2008. The number of adults with AF in Iceland is projected to increase from 4495 (prevalence 2.0%) in 2008 to 11 088 (prevalence 3.5%) in 2050, if the incidence of AF and mortality remain constant beyond 2008. However, if the incidence continues to increase as it has and mortality decreases according to projections for the general population, the projected number will rise to 13 583 (prevalence 4.3%). In this study in a northern European population, the incidence of AF increased in women but not men from 1991 to 2008. The prevalence of AF is currently high and the number of patients with AF is expected to triple in the next four decades. AF is already a serious public health problem and the burden of this disease could reach epidemic proportions in the coming years. |
| Author | Aspelund, Thor Stefansdottir, Hrafnhildur Arnar, David O. Gudnason, Vilmundur |
| Author_xml | – sequence: 1 givenname: Hrafnhildur surname: Stefansdottir fullname: Stefansdottir, Hrafnhildur organization: 1 Department of Medicine, Cardiovascular Research Centre, Landspitali-The National University Hospital of Iceland, Reykjavik, Iceland – sequence: 2 givenname: Thor surname: Aspelund fullname: Aspelund, Thor organization: 2 School of Health Sciences, University of Iceland, Reykjavik, Iceland – sequence: 3 givenname: Vilmundur surname: Gudnason fullname: Gudnason, Vilmundur organization: 2 School of Health Sciences, University of Iceland, Reykjavik, Iceland – sequence: 4 givenname: David O. surname: Arnar fullname: Arnar, David O. organization: 1 Department of Medicine, Cardiovascular Research Centre, Landspitali-The National University Hospital of Iceland, Reykjavik, Iceland |
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| ContentType | Journal Article |
| Copyright | Published on behalf of the European Society of Cardiology. All rights reserved. © The Author 2011. For permissions please email: journals.permissions@oup.com. 2011 |
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Data are scarce on the epidemiology of atrial fibrillation (AF) in Europe. The aim of this study was to examine recent trends in the incidence and... Data are scarce on the epidemiology of atrial fibrillation (AF) in Europe. The aim of this study was to examine recent trends in the incidence and prevalence... |
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| SubjectTerms | Adult Age Distribution Aged Aged, 80 and over Atrial Fibrillation - epidemiology Censuses Cohort Studies Female Forecasting Humans Iceland - epidemiology Incidence Male Middle Aged Predictive Value of Tests Prevalence Retrospective Studies Sex Distribution Urban Population - statistics & numerical data Young Adult |
| Title | Trends in the incidence and prevalence of atrial fibrillation in Iceland and future projections |
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