Does ‘more’ equal ‘better’? – Analyzing the impact of diversification strategies on infrastructure in the European gas market
The paper investigates investments in gas infrastructure considering uncertainties in European gas markets. Furthermore, the study addresses the question of whether (more) diversification provides a (better) security of supply improvement. Thus, a stochastic optimization approach is introduced. The...
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| Vydáno v: | Energy policy Ročník 153; s. 112232 |
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| Hlavní autor: | |
| Médium: | Journal Article |
| Jazyk: | angličtina |
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Kidlington
Elsevier Ltd
01.06.2021
Elsevier Science Ltd |
| Témata: | |
| ISSN: | 0301-4215, 1873-6777 |
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| Abstract | The paper investigates investments in gas infrastructure considering uncertainties in European gas markets. Furthermore, the study addresses the question of whether (more) diversification provides a (better) security of supply improvement. Thus, a stochastic optimization approach is introduced. The uncertainties focus on 2030 and 2045 in three dimensions, namely the Ukraine gas transit, future LNG prices, and the expected gas demand. Considering three diversification strategies, the model GAMAMOD-EU.sto optimizes investments in pipelines, LNG import terminals and gas storages as well as the gas dispatch. Results illustrate trade-offs between optimal gas supply and diversification strategies. Investments in pipelines to North African suppliers are made across all strategies, while the building of the Nord Stream 2 pipeline depend on the respective diversification strategy. Diversification through LNG quota changes the dispatch results significantly. Investments in storages are almost not necessary over all strategies, however, storages provide flexibility to prevent supply shortages, when diversification strategies are applied. Conclusion for policy makers regarding what is needed for preventing malinvestments and high costs in the European gas market are: an enhanced relationship between Russia and the EU and a clear vision on the role of gas in the future European energy system that reduces demand uncertainty.
•A stochastic optimization approach for analyzing the European gas market is proposed.•Investment and dispatch decisions concerning gas market uncertainties.•Diversification leads to increasing system costs and determine infrastructure.•Minimum LNG import quota do not significantly prevent pipeline expansion.•Reliable EU-Russia-relationship and clear visions on the Green Deal prevent malinvestments. |
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| AbstractList | The paper investigates investments in gas infrastructure considering uncertainties in European gas markets. Furthermore, the study addresses the question of whether (more) diversification provides a (better) security of supply improvement. Thus, a stochastic optimization approach is introduced. The uncertainties focus on 2030 and 2045 in three dimensions, namely the Ukraine gas transit, future LNG prices, and the expected gas demand. Considering three diversification strategies, the model GAMAMOD-EU.sto optimizes investments in pipelines, LNG import terminals and gas storages as well as the gas dispatch. Results illustrate trade-offs between optimal gas supply and diversification strategies. Investments in pipelines to North African suppliers are made across all strategies, while the building of the Nord Stream 2 pipeline depend on the respective diversification strategy. Diversification through LNG quota changes the dispatch results significantly. Investments in storages are almost not necessary over all strategies, however, storages provide flexibility to prevent supply shortages, when diversification strategies are applied. Conclusion for policy makers regarding what is needed for preventing malinvestments and high costs in the European gas market are: an enhanced relationship between Russia and the EU and a clear vision on the role of gas in the future European energy system that reduces demand uncertainty. The paper investigates investments in gas infrastructure considering uncertainties in European gas markets. Furthermore, the study addresses the question of whether (more) diversification provides a (better) security of supply improvement. Thus, a stochastic optimization approach is introduced. The uncertainties focus on 2030 and 2045 in three dimensions, namely the Ukraine gas transit, future LNG prices, and the expected gas demand. Considering three diversification strategies, the model GAMAMOD-EU.sto optimizes investments in pipelines, LNG import terminals and gas storages as well as the gas dispatch. Results illustrate trade-offs between optimal gas supply and diversification strategies. Investments in pipelines to North African suppliers are made across all strategies, while the building of the Nord Stream 2 pipeline depend on the respective diversification strategy. Diversification through LNG quota changes the dispatch results significantly. Investments in storages are almost not necessary over all strategies, however, storages provide flexibility to prevent supply shortages, when diversification strategies are applied. Conclusion for policy makers regarding what is needed for preventing malinvestments and high costs in the European gas market are: an enhanced relationship between Russia and the EU and a clear vision on the role of gas in the future European energy system that reduces demand uncertainty. •A stochastic optimization approach for analyzing the European gas market is proposed.•Investment and dispatch decisions concerning gas market uncertainties.•Diversification leads to increasing system costs and determine infrastructure.•Minimum LNG import quota do not significantly prevent pipeline expansion.•Reliable EU-Russia-relationship and clear visions on the Green Deal prevent malinvestments. |
| ArticleNumber | 112232 |
| Author | Hauser, Philipp |
| Author_xml | – sequence: 1 givenname: Philipp surname: Hauser fullname: Hauser, Philipp email: philipp.hauser@tu-dresden.de organization: Chair of Energy Economics, Faculty of Economics and Business Management, Technische Universität Dresden, Münchner Platz 3, 01069, Dresden, Germany |
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| SubjectTerms | Diversification Diversification strategy energy Energy policy European gas market Flexibility Gas pipelines Impact analysis imports Infrastructure Infrastructure investment Investments Liquefied natural gas Markets Optimization Pipelines Policy making Prices Russia Shortages Stochastic programming approach Strategies Transport buildings, stations and terminals Ukraine Uncertainty |
| Title | Does ‘more’ equal ‘better’? – Analyzing the impact of diversification strategies on infrastructure in the European gas market |
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