Landscape-scale drivers of endangered Cape Sable Seaside Sparrow (Ammospiza maritima mirabilis) presence using an ensemble modeling approach

•We explore an ensemble approach of frequentist and Bayesian models.•EverSparrow integrates several environmental predictors affecting species presence.•Model performs well despite low prevalence of a rare and endangered species.•Designed for direct application to species recovery and Everglades res...

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Vydáno v:	Ecological modelling Ročník 461; s. 109774
Hlavní autoři:	Haider, Saira M., Benscoter, Allison M., Pearlstine, Leonard, D'Acunto, Laura E., Romañach, Stephanie S.
Médium:	Journal Article
Jazyk:	angličtina
Vydáno:	Elsevier B.V 01.12.2021
Témata:	Bayesian theory canopy decision support systems ecosystems Everglades restoration Florida habitat destruction Habitat suitability habitats landscapes Marl prairie probability regression analysis Species distribution modeling Threatened and endangered species vegetation water management wetlands Florida Marl prairie Species distribution modeling Threatened and endangered species Habitat suitability Florida Everglades restoration
ISSN:	0304-3800, 1872-7026
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Abstract	•We explore an ensemble approach of frequentist and Bayesian models.•EverSparrow integrates several environmental predictors affecting species presence.•Model performs well despite low prevalence of a rare and endangered species.•Designed for direct application to species recovery and Everglades restoration.•Integration into online decision support tools provides real-time utility. The Florida Everglades is a vast and iconic wetland ecosystem in the southern United States that has undergone dramatic changes from habitat degradation, development encroachment, and water impoundment. Starting in the past few decades, large restoration projects have been undertaken to restore the landscape, including improving conditions for threatened and imperiled taxa. One focus of restoration has been the marl prairie ecosystem, where the federally endangered Cape Sable Seaside Sparrow (Ammospiza maritima mirabilis; CSSS) resides. The CSSS is endemic to the Everglades where populations have been steadily declining, signaling the importance of decision support tools for natural resource managers for evaluating water management and restoration scenarios. Here we developed an ensemble logistic regression, combining a frequentist and Bayesian approach, to model CSSS presence and measure how environmental factors such as hydrometrics, fire occurrence, and vegetation structure impact CSSS habitat suitability. This is the first analysis to quantitatively assess the interdependent relationships between a broad range of environmental factors and CSSS presence across the landscape. Our results show that the probability of CSSS presence was highest in areas with dry conditions, hydroperiods between 80 and 120 days, percentages of canopy cover and woody vegetation less than 10%, and more than six years post-fire where 75% or more of the area was burned. Because the frequentist and Bayesian models had nearly identical spatial outputs with the Bayesian model having slightly higher validation metrics, we used the Bayesian approach as our final model (EverSparrow). The results from our analysis can provide a valuable decision support tool as natural resource managers work to restore the Everglades landscape.
AbstractList	•We explore an ensemble approach of frequentist and Bayesian models.•EverSparrow integrates several environmental predictors affecting species presence.•Model performs well despite low prevalence of a rare and endangered species.•Designed for direct application to species recovery and Everglades restoration.•Integration into online decision support tools provides real-time utility. The Florida Everglades is a vast and iconic wetland ecosystem in the southern United States that has undergone dramatic changes from habitat degradation, development encroachment, and water impoundment. Starting in the past few decades, large restoration projects have been undertaken to restore the landscape, including improving conditions for threatened and imperiled taxa. One focus of restoration has been the marl prairie ecosystem, where the federally endangered Cape Sable Seaside Sparrow (Ammospiza maritima mirabilis; CSSS) resides. The CSSS is endemic to the Everglades where populations have been steadily declining, signaling the importance of decision support tools for natural resource managers for evaluating water management and restoration scenarios. Here we developed an ensemble logistic regression, combining a frequentist and Bayesian approach, to model CSSS presence and measure how environmental factors such as hydrometrics, fire occurrence, and vegetation structure impact CSSS habitat suitability. This is the first analysis to quantitatively assess the interdependent relationships between a broad range of environmental factors and CSSS presence across the landscape. Our results show that the probability of CSSS presence was highest in areas with dry conditions, hydroperiods between 80 and 120 days, percentages of canopy cover and woody vegetation less than 10%, and more than six years post-fire where 75% or more of the area was burned. Because the frequentist and Bayesian models had nearly identical spatial outputs with the Bayesian model having slightly higher validation metrics, we used the Bayesian approach as our final model (EverSparrow). The results from our analysis can provide a valuable decision support tool as natural resource managers work to restore the Everglades landscape. The Florida Everglades is a vast and iconic wetland ecosystem in the southern United States that has undergone dramatic changes from habitat degradation, development encroachment, and water impoundment. Starting in the past few decades, large restoration projects have been undertaken to restore the landscape, including improving conditions for threatened and imperiled taxa. One focus of restoration has been the marl prairie ecosystem, where the federally endangered Cape Sable Seaside Sparrow (Ammospiza maritima mirabilis; CSSS) resides. The CSSS is endemic to the Everglades where populations have been steadily declining, signaling the importance of decision support tools for natural resource managers for evaluating water management and restoration scenarios. Here we developed an ensemble logistic regression, combining a frequentist and Bayesian approach, to model CSSS presence and measure how environmental factors such as hydrometrics, fire occurrence, and vegetation structure impact CSSS habitat suitability. This is the first analysis to quantitatively assess the interdependent relationships between a broad range of environmental factors and CSSS presence across the landscape. Our results show that the probability of CSSS presence was highest in areas with dry conditions, hydroperiods between 80 and 120 days, percentages of canopy cover and woody vegetation less than 10%, and more than six years post-fire where 75% or more of the area was burned. Because the frequentist and Bayesian models had nearly identical spatial outputs with the Bayesian model having slightly higher validation metrics, we used the Bayesian approach as our final model (EverSparrow). The results from our analysis can provide a valuable decision support tool as natural resource managers work to restore the Everglades landscape.
ArticleNumber	109774
Author	Pearlstine, Leonard Benscoter, Allison M. Romañach, Stephanie S. Haider, Saira M. D'Acunto, Laura E.
Author_xml	– sequence: 1 givenname: Saira M. surname: Haider fullname: Haider, Saira M. email: shaider@usgs.gov organization: U.S. Geological Survey, Wetland & Aquatic Research Center, 3321 College Avenue, Davie, FL, 33314, USA – sequence: 2 givenname: Allison M. surname: Benscoter fullname: Benscoter, Allison M. organization: U.S. Geological Survey, Wetland & Aquatic Research Center, 3321 College Avenue, Davie, FL, 33314, USA – sequence: 3 givenname: Leonard surname: Pearlstine fullname: Pearlstine, Leonard organization: National Park Service, Everglades National Park, South Florida South Florida Natural Resources Center, Homestead, Florida, USA – sequence: 4 givenname: Laura E. surname: D'Acunto fullname: D'Acunto, Laura E. organization: U.S. Geological Survey, Wetland & Aquatic Research Center, 3321 College Avenue, Davie, FL, 33314, USA – sequence: 5 givenname: Stephanie S. surname: Romañach fullname: Romañach, Stephanie S. organization: U.S. Geological Survey, Wetland & Aquatic Research Center, 3321 College Avenue, Davie, FL, 33314, USA
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Keywords	Marl prairie Species distribution modeling Threatened and endangered species Habitat suitability Florida Everglades restoration
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Snippet	•We explore an ensemble approach of frequentist and Bayesian models.•EverSparrow integrates several environmental predictors affecting species presence.•Model... The Florida Everglades is a vast and iconic wetland ecosystem in the southern United States that has undergone dramatic changes from habitat degradation,...
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SubjectTerms	Bayesian theory canopy decision support systems ecosystems Everglades restoration Florida habitat destruction Habitat suitability habitats landscapes Marl prairie probability regression analysis Species distribution modeling Threatened and endangered species vegetation water management wetlands
Title	Landscape-scale drivers of endangered Cape Sable Seaside Sparrow (Ammospiza maritima mirabilis) presence using an ensemble modeling approach
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