An alternative approach to estimating the parameters of a generalised Grey Verhulst model: An application to steel intensity of use in the UK
•A more reliable method for estimating the parameters of GM(n,m) models.•A diagnostic for deciding whether a chosen GM(n,m) is data compatible.•A generalisation of the Grey–Verhulst offering greater flexibility for data fitting.•Derivation of short to medium term predictions of steel intensity of us...
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| Veröffentlicht in: | Expert systems with applications Jg. 41; H. 4; S. 1236 - 1244 |
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| Format: | Journal Article |
| Sprache: | Englisch |
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01.03.2014
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| ISSN: | 0957-4174, 1873-6793 |
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| Abstract | •A more reliable method for estimating the parameters of GM(n,m) models.•A diagnostic for deciding whether a chosen GM(n,m) is data compatible.•A generalisation of the Grey–Verhulst offering greater flexibility for data fitting.•Derivation of short to medium term predictions of steel intensity of use in the UK.
Being able to forecast time series accurately has been quite a popular subject for researchers both in the past and at present. However, researchers have resorted to various forecasting models that have different mathematical backgrounds, such as statistical time series models, causal econometric models, artificial neural networks, fuzzy predictors, evolutionary and genetic algorithms. In this paper, a brief review of a relatively new approach, known as grey system theory is provided. The paper offers an alternative approach to estimating the unknown parameters of the well know GM(1,1) and it is shown that this alternative procedure provides more reliable parameter estimates together with a simple visual framework for assessing whether the properties of the chosen GM(1,1) model are consistent with the actual data. In this paper a flexible generalisation of the Grey–Verhulst model is put forward which when applied to UK steel intensity of use produces very reliable multi step ahead predictions. |
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| AbstractList | •A more reliable method for estimating the parameters of GM(n,m) models.•A diagnostic for deciding whether a chosen GM(n,m) is data compatible.•A generalisation of the Grey–Verhulst offering greater flexibility for data fitting.•Derivation of short to medium term predictions of steel intensity of use in the UK.
Being able to forecast time series accurately has been quite a popular subject for researchers both in the past and at present. However, researchers have resorted to various forecasting models that have different mathematical backgrounds, such as statistical time series models, causal econometric models, artificial neural networks, fuzzy predictors, evolutionary and genetic algorithms. In this paper, a brief review of a relatively new approach, known as grey system theory is provided. The paper offers an alternative approach to estimating the unknown parameters of the well know GM(1,1) and it is shown that this alternative procedure provides more reliable parameter estimates together with a simple visual framework for assessing whether the properties of the chosen GM(1,1) model are consistent with the actual data. In this paper a flexible generalisation of the Grey–Verhulst model is put forward which when applied to UK steel intensity of use produces very reliable multi step ahead predictions. Being able to forecast time series accurately has been quite a popular subject for researchers both in the past and at present. However, researchers have resorted to various forecasting models that have different mathematical backgrounds, such as statistical time series models, causal econometric models, artificial neural networks, fuzzy predictors, evolutionary and genetic algorithms. In this paper, a brief review of a relatively new approach, known as grey system theory is provided. The paper offers an alternative approach to estimating the unknown parameters of the well know GM(1,1) and it is shown that this alternative procedure provides more reliable parameter estimates together with a simple visual framework for assessing whether the properties of the chosen GM(1,1) model are consistent with the actual data. In this paper a flexible generalisation of the Grey-Verhulst model is put forward which when applied to UK steel intensity of use produces very reliable multi step ahead predictions. |
| Author | Evans, Mark |
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| Cites_doi | 10.1006/jeem.1993.1039 10.1016/S0167-6911(82)80025-X 10.1016/S0196-8904(02)00248-0 10.1016/j.eswa.2008.06.103 10.1002/(SICI)1099-131X(199701)16:1<47::AID-FOR644>3.0.CO;2-0 10.1016/j.resourpol.2010.10.004 |
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| Keywords | Grey models Model verification Intensity of use Estimation Prediction GM(1,1) Parameter estimation Grey system Evolutionary algorithm Time series Econometric model Systems theory Use study Neural network Modeling Forecasting Fuzzy neural nets Genetic algorithm Statistical model Iron steel industry Causality |
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| References_xml | – volume: 36 start-page: 97 year: 2011 end-page: 106 ident: b0025 article-title: Steel consumption and economic activity in the UK: The integration and cointegration debate publication-title: Resource Policy – volume: 44 start-page: 2241 year: 2003 end-page: 2249 ident: b0035 article-title: Applications of improved grey prediction model for power demand forecasting publication-title: Energy Conversion and Management – reference: Q4, Bank of England. – volume: 36 start-page: 5387 year: 2009 end-page: 5392 ident: b0040 article-title: A hybrid model for stock market forecasting and portfolio selection based on ARX, grey system and RS theories publication-title: Expert Systems with Applications – reference: Steel Statistical Yearbook, (2012). Brussels: World Steel Organisation, Economics Committee. – year: 2004 ident: b0080 article-title: Grey systems – reference: , – volume: 1 start-page: 1 year: 1989 end-page: 24 ident: b0015 article-title: Introduction to grey system theory publication-title: The Journal of Grey System – reference: Projection 85 (1972). Brussels: International Iron and Steel Institute. – year: 1990 ident: b0070 article-title: World metals demand: Trends and prospects – reference: Wen, K. L., & Huang, Y. F., (2004). The development of grey Verhulst toolbox and the analysis of population saturation state in Taiwan–Fukien. In – year: 1982 ident: b0010 article-title: Grey system fundamental method – year: 1978 ident: b0050 article-title: World demand for raw materials in 1985 and 2000 – reference: Steel Intensity and G.N.P. Structure (1974). Brussels: International Iron and Steel Institute. – reference: (pp. 5007–5012), The Netherlands. – volume: 16 start-page: 47 year: 1998 end-page: 63 ident: b0020 article-title: Time-series properties and forecasts of crude steel consumption in the UK publication-title: Journal of Forecasting – volume: 1 start-page: 288 year: 1982 end-page: 294 ident: b0005 article-title: Control problems of grey system publication-title: Systems & Control Letters – volume: 25 start-page: 147 year: 1993 end-page: 161 ident: b0045 article-title: Common trends in economic activity and metals demand: Cointegration and the intensity of use debate publication-title: Journal of Environmental Economics and Management – year: 1983 ident: b0085 article-title: Technological and economic trends in the steel Industry – reference: Hills, S., Thomas, R., & Dimsdale, N., (2010). The UK recession in context — what do three centuries of data tell us? – year: 1978 ident: 10.1016/j.eswa.2013.08.006_b0050 – year: 1983 ident: 10.1016/j.eswa.2013.08.006_b0085 – ident: 10.1016/j.eswa.2013.08.006_b0065 – year: 2004 ident: 10.1016/j.eswa.2013.08.006_b0080 – volume: 25 start-page: 147 year: 1993 ident: 10.1016/j.eswa.2013.08.006_b0045 article-title: Common trends in economic activity and metals demand: Cointegration and the intensity of use debate publication-title: Journal of Environmental Economics and Management doi: 10.1006/jeem.1993.1039 – volume: 1 start-page: 288 year: 1982 ident: 10.1016/j.eswa.2013.08.006_b0005 article-title: Control problems of grey system publication-title: Systems & Control Letters doi: 10.1016/S0167-6911(82)80025-X – volume: 44 start-page: 2241 year: 2003 ident: 10.1016/j.eswa.2013.08.006_b0035 article-title: Applications of improved grey prediction model for power demand forecasting publication-title: Energy Conversion and Management doi: 10.1016/S0196-8904(02)00248-0 – ident: 10.1016/j.eswa.2013.08.006_b0075 – volume: 36 start-page: 5387 year: 2009 ident: 10.1016/j.eswa.2013.08.006_b0040 article-title: A hybrid model for stock market forecasting and portfolio selection based on ARX, grey system and RS theories publication-title: Expert Systems with Applications doi: 10.1016/j.eswa.2008.06.103 – volume: 16 start-page: 47 issue: 1 year: 1998 ident: 10.1016/j.eswa.2013.08.006_b0020 article-title: Time-series properties and forecasts of crude steel consumption in the UK publication-title: Journal of Forecasting doi: 10.1002/(SICI)1099-131X(199701)16:1<47::AID-FOR644>3.0.CO;2-0 – ident: 10.1016/j.eswa.2013.08.006_b0055 – volume: 36 start-page: 97 issue: 2 year: 2011 ident: 10.1016/j.eswa.2013.08.006_b0025 article-title: Steel consumption and economic activity in the UK: The integration and cointegration debate publication-title: Resource Policy doi: 10.1016/j.resourpol.2010.10.004 – ident: 10.1016/j.eswa.2013.08.006_b0060 – year: 1982 ident: 10.1016/j.eswa.2013.08.006_b0010 – ident: 10.1016/j.eswa.2013.08.006_b0030 – year: 1990 ident: 10.1016/j.eswa.2013.08.006_b0070 – volume: 1 start-page: 1 year: 1989 ident: 10.1016/j.eswa.2013.08.006_b0015 article-title: Introduction to grey system theory publication-title: The Journal of Grey System |
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| SubjectTerms | Applied sciences Artificial intelligence Computer science; control theory; systems Connectionism. Neural networks Economics Estimating Estimation Exact sciences and technology Expert systems Fuzzy logic General aspects GM(1,1) Grey models Inference from stochastic processes; time series analysis Intensity of use Iron and steel making Mathematical models Mathematics Metals. Metallurgy Model verification Neural networks Prediction Probability and statistics Production of metals Sciences and techniques of general use Statistics Steels Time series |
| Title | An alternative approach to estimating the parameters of a generalised Grey Verhulst model: An application to steel intensity of use in the UK |
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