Assessing the Impact of Climate Change on Future Water Demand using Weather Data

Assessing the impact of climate change on water demand is a challenging task. This paper proposes a novel methodology that quantifies this impact by establishing a link between water demand and weather based on climate change scenarios, via Coupled General Circulation Models. These models simulate t...

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Vydáno v:Water resources management Ročník 35; číslo 5; s. 1449 - 1462
Hlavní autoři: Fiorillo, Diana, Kapelan, Zoran, Xenochristou, Maria, De Paola, Francesco, Giugni, Maurizio
Médium: Journal Article
Jazyk:angličtina
Vydáno: Dordrecht Springer Netherlands 01.03.2021
Springer Nature B.V
Témata:
administrative management
Atmospheric models
Atmospheric Sciences
Civil Engineering
climate
Climate change
Climate models
Climate system
Demand
Earth and Environmental Science
Earth Sciences
education
Environment
Environmental impact
General circulation models
Geotechnical Engineering & Applied Earth Sciences
Global climate
Greenhouse gases
Hydrogeology
Hydrology/Water Resources
Italy
Meteorological data
Methods
Model testing
Water
Water demand
Weather
Italy
Climate change
Smart meters
Water demand
Water distribution network
ISSN:0920-4741, 1573-1650
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Shrnutí:Assessing the impact of climate change on water demand is a challenging task. This paper proposes a novel methodology that quantifies this impact by establishing a link between water demand and weather based on climate change scenarios, via Coupled General Circulation Models. These models simulate the response of the global climate system to increasing greenhouse gas concentrations by reproducing atmospheric and ocean processes. In order to establish the link between water demand and weather, Random Forest models based on weather variables were used. This methodology was applied to a district metered area in Naples (Italy). Results demonstrate that the total district water demand may increase by 9–10% during the weeks with the highest temperatures. Furthermore, results show that the increase in water demand changes depending on the social characteristics of the users. The water demand of employed users with high education may increase by 13–15% when the highest temperatures occur. These increases can seriously affect the capacity and operation of existing water systems.
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ISSN:0920-4741
1573-1650
DOI:10.1007/s11269-021-02789-4