Assessing the Impact of Climate Change on Future Water Demand using Weather Data

Assessing the impact of climate change on water demand is a challenging task. This paper proposes a novel methodology that quantifies this impact by establishing a link between water demand and weather based on climate change scenarios, via Coupled General Circulation Models. These models simulate t...

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Vydáno v:	Water resources management Ročník 35; číslo 5; s. 1449 - 1462
Hlavní autoři:	Fiorillo, Diana, Kapelan, Zoran, Xenochristou, Maria, De Paola, Francesco, Giugni, Maurizio
Médium:	Journal Article
Jazyk:	angličtina
Vydáno:	Dordrecht Springer Netherlands 01.03.2021 Springer Nature B.V
Témata:	administrative management Atmospheric models Atmospheric Sciences Civil Engineering climate Climate change Climate models Climate system Demand Earth and Environmental Science Earth Sciences education Environment Environmental impact General circulation models Geotechnical Engineering & Applied Earth Sciences Global climate Greenhouse gases Hydrogeology Hydrology/Water Resources Italy Meteorological data Methods Model testing Water Water demand Weather Italy Climate change Smart meters Water demand Water distribution network
ISSN:	0920-4741, 1573-1650
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Abstract	Assessing the impact of climate change on water demand is a challenging task. This paper proposes a novel methodology that quantifies this impact by establishing a link between water demand and weather based on climate change scenarios, via Coupled General Circulation Models. These models simulate the response of the global climate system to increasing greenhouse gas concentrations by reproducing atmospheric and ocean processes. In order to establish the link between water demand and weather, Random Forest models based on weather variables were used. This methodology was applied to a district metered area in Naples (Italy). Results demonstrate that the total district water demand may increase by 9–10% during the weeks with the highest temperatures. Furthermore, results show that the increase in water demand changes depending on the social characteristics of the users. The water demand of employed users with high education may increase by 13–15% when the highest temperatures occur. These increases can seriously affect the capacity and operation of existing water systems.
AbstractList	Assessing the impact of climate change on water demand is a challenging task. This paper proposes a novel methodology that quantifies this impact by establishing a link between water demand and weather based on climate change scenarios, via Coupled General Circulation Models. These models simulate the response of the global climate system to increasing greenhouse gas concentrations by reproducing atmospheric and ocean processes. In order to establish the link between water demand and weather, Random Forest models based on weather variables were used. This methodology was applied to a district metered area in Naples (Italy). Results demonstrate that the total district water demand may increase by 9–10% during the weeks with the highest temperatures. Furthermore, results show that the increase in water demand changes depending on the social characteristics of the users. The water demand of employed users with high education may increase by 13–15% when the highest temperatures occur. These increases can seriously affect the capacity and operation of existing water systems. Assessing the impact of climate change on water demand is a challenging task. This paper proposes a novel methodology that quantifies this impact by establishing a link between water demand and weather based on climate change scenarios, via Coupled General Circulation Models. These models simulate the response of the global climate system to increasing greenhouse gas concentrations by reproducing atmospheric and ocean processes. In order to establish the link between water demand and weather, Random Forest models based on weather variables were used. This methodology was applied to a district metered area in Naples (Italy). Results demonstrate that the total district water demand may increase by 9–10% during the weeks with the highest temperatures. Furthermore, results show that the increase in water demand changes depending on the social characteristics of the users. The water demand of employed users with high education may increase by 13–15% when the highest temperatures occur. These increases can seriously affect the capacity and operation of existing water systems.
Author	Kapelan, Zoran Fiorillo, Diana Xenochristou, Maria Giugni, Maurizio De Paola, Francesco
Author_xml	– sequence: 1 givenname: Diana orcidid: 0000-0002-5983-6262 surname: Fiorillo fullname: Fiorillo, Diana email: diana.fiorillo@unina.it organization: Department of Civil, Building and Environmental Engineering, University of Naples Federico II – sequence: 2 givenname: Zoran orcidid: 0000-0002-0934-4470 surname: Kapelan fullname: Kapelan, Zoran organization: Department of Water Management, Delft University of Technology (TU Delft) – sequence: 3 givenname: Maria orcidid: 0000-0001-5064-0813 surname: Xenochristou fullname: Xenochristou, Maria organization: Department of Anesthesiology, Perioperative and Pain Medicine, Department of Biomedical Data Science, Department of Pediatrics, Stanford University – sequence: 4 givenname: Francesco orcidid: 0000-0003-0036-1191 surname: De Paola fullname: De Paola, Francesco organization: Department of Civil, Building and Environmental Engineering, University of Naples Federico II – sequence: 5 givenname: Maurizio orcidid: 0000-0001-8026-3633 surname: Giugni fullname: Giugni, Maurizio organization: Department of Civil, Building and Environmental Engineering, University of Naples Federico II
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Snippet	Assessing the impact of climate change on water demand is a challenging task. This paper proposes a novel methodology that quantifies this impact by...
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SubjectTerms	administrative management Atmospheric models Atmospheric Sciences Civil Engineering climate Climate change Climate models Climate system Demand Earth and Environmental Science Earth Sciences education Environment Environmental impact General circulation models Geotechnical Engineering & Applied Earth Sciences Global climate Greenhouse gases Hydrogeology Hydrology/Water Resources Italy Meteorological data Methods Model testing Water Water demand Weather
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Title	Assessing the Impact of Climate Change on Future Water Demand using Weather Data
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