Subset simulation-based reliability analysis of the corroding natural gas pipeline
•Subset simulation is applied to evaluate the reliability of corroding pipeline.•The competitiveness of failure modes and correlation of defects are considered.•A numerical example is proposed to illustrate the feasibility of the methodology.•The effect of the correlation of defects on system reliab...
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| Vydáno v: | Reliability engineering & system safety Ročník 213; s. 107661 |
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| Hlavní autoři: | , , , , , , , |
| Médium: | Journal Article |
| Jazyk: | angličtina |
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Barking
Elsevier Ltd
01.09.2021
Elsevier BV |
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| ISSN: | 0951-8320, 1879-0836 |
| On-line přístup: | Získat plný text |
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| Abstract | •Subset simulation is applied to evaluate the reliability of corroding pipeline.•The competitiveness of failure modes and correlation of defects are considered.•A numerical example is proposed to illustrate the feasibility of the methodology.•The effect of the correlation of defects on system reliability is investigated.
In this study, a subset simulation-based methodology is developed to evaluate the time-dependent reliability of the corroding pipeline with multiple correlated corrosion defects. Two competing failure modes, namely small leak and burst, are considered in the methodology. Firstly, the time-dependent structural reliability model of the two competing failure modes is established. Then, the computational framework for implementing subset simulation for failure probability estimation of the individual corrosion defect is presented. Thereafter, a procedure to calculate the system reliability of the entire pipeline with correlated corrosion defects is proposed. Moreover, a numerical example based on a real natural gas pipeline is proposed, and the time-dependent failure probabilities of both the small leak and burst are predicted, which are compared with the evaluation results produced by the direct Monte Carlo simulation and Kriging method. By means of numerical example, the accuracy and efficiency of our methodology are demonstrated. Furthermore, a sensitivity analysis is performed to investigated the effect of the correlation of the corrosion defects on the system reliability, and the results indicate that the correlation exert great impact on system reliability. |
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| AbstractList | •Subset simulation is applied to evaluate the reliability of corroding pipeline.•The competitiveness of failure modes and correlation of defects are considered.•A numerical example is proposed to illustrate the feasibility of the methodology.•The effect of the correlation of defects on system reliability is investigated.
In this study, a subset simulation-based methodology is developed to evaluate the time-dependent reliability of the corroding pipeline with multiple correlated corrosion defects. Two competing failure modes, namely small leak and burst, are considered in the methodology. Firstly, the time-dependent structural reliability model of the two competing failure modes is established. Then, the computational framework for implementing subset simulation for failure probability estimation of the individual corrosion defect is presented. Thereafter, a procedure to calculate the system reliability of the entire pipeline with correlated corrosion defects is proposed. Moreover, a numerical example based on a real natural gas pipeline is proposed, and the time-dependent failure probabilities of both the small leak and burst are predicted, which are compared with the evaluation results produced by the direct Monte Carlo simulation and Kriging method. By means of numerical example, the accuracy and efficiency of our methodology are demonstrated. Furthermore, a sensitivity analysis is performed to investigated the effect of the correlation of the corrosion defects on the system reliability, and the results indicate that the correlation exert great impact on system reliability. In this study, a subset simulation-based methodology is developed to evaluate the time-dependent reliability of the corroding pipeline with multiple correlated corrosion defects. Two competing failure modes, namely small leak and burst, are considered in the methodology. Firstly, the time-dependent structural reliability model of the two competing failure modes is established. Then, the computational framework for implementing subset simulation for failure probability estimation of the individual corrosion defect is presented. Thereafter, a procedure to calculate the system reliability of the entire pipeline with correlated corrosion defects is proposed. Moreover, a numerical example based on a real natural gas pipeline is proposed, and the time-dependent failure probabilities of both the small leak and burst are predicted, which are compared with the evaluation results produced by the direct Monte Carlo simulation and Kriging method. By means of numerical example, the accuracy and efficiency of our methodology are demonstrated. Furthermore, a sensitivity analysis is performed to investigated the effect of the correlation of the corrosion defects on the system reliability, and the results indicate that the correlation exert great impact on system reliability. |
| ArticleNumber | 107661 |
| Author | Huang, Weihe Qu, Chunxu Liu, Hongfei Wen, Kai Gong, Jing Yu, Weichao Zhang, Jie Wang, Kun |
| Author_xml | – sequence: 1 givenname: Weichao surname: Yu fullname: Yu, Weichao email: cupwhut@163.com organization: National Engineering Laboratory for Pipeline Safety/ MOE Key Laboratory of Petroleum Engineering/ Beijing Key Laboratory of Urban Oil and Gas Distribution Technology, China University of Petroleum -Beijing, Changping Beijing 102249, China – sequence: 2 givenname: Weihe surname: Huang fullname: Huang, Weihe organization: China National Petroleum Corporation/PetroChina Company Limited, Beijing 100007, China – sequence: 3 givenname: Kai surname: Wen fullname: Wen, Kai organization: National Engineering Laboratory for Pipeline Safety/ MOE Key Laboratory of Petroleum Engineering/ Beijing Key Laboratory of Urban Oil and Gas Distribution Technology, China University of Petroleum -Beijing, Changping Beijing 102249, China – sequence: 4 givenname: Jie surname: Zhang fullname: Zhang, Jie organization: China Productivity Center for Machinery, Beijing 100044, China – sequence: 5 givenname: Hongfei surname: Liu fullname: Liu, Hongfei organization: China National Aviation Fuel International Holdings Limited, Beijing 100029, China – sequence: 6 givenname: Kun surname: Wang fullname: Wang, Kun organization: China Petroleum Planning & Engineering Institute, Beijing 10083, China – sequence: 7 givenname: Jing surname: Gong fullname: Gong, Jing email: ydgj@cup.edu.cn organization: National Engineering Laboratory for Pipeline Safety/ MOE Key Laboratory of Petroleum Engineering/ Beijing Key Laboratory of Urban Oil and Gas Distribution Technology, China University of Petroleum -Beijing, Changping Beijing 102249, China – sequence: 8 givenname: Chunxu surname: Qu fullname: Qu, Chunxu organization: Shanghai Branch, Natural Gas Marketing Company, China National Petroleum Corporation & Shanghai Branch, Kunlun Energy Company Limited, Shanghai 200120, China |
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| Keywords | Subset simulation Burst Reliability assessment Small leak Corroding natural gas pipeline |
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| SubjectTerms | Burst Computer applications Corroding natural gas pipeline Corrosion Corrosion effects Defects Failure modes Gas pipelines Methodology Monte Carlo simulation Natural gas Pipelines Reliability analysis Reliability assessment Reliability engineering Sensitivity analysis Simulation Small leak Structural reliability Subset simulation System reliability Time dependence |
| Title | Subset simulation-based reliability analysis of the corroding natural gas pipeline |
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