Can a Spatially Distributed Hydrological Model Effectively Analyze Hydrological Processes in the Nepal Himalaya River Basin?

In regions characterized by snow and glaciers, the selection of appropriate methodologies and the use of suitable hydrological models are imperative due to heightened vulnerability to the impacts of global climate change. This study focuses on the Tamor River basin (TRB) in the Eastern Himalaya of N...

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Vydáno v:	Environmental modeling & assessment Ročník 29; číslo 6; s. 1037 - 1058
Hlavní autoři:	Pradhan, Ananta Man Singh, Silwal, Gunjan, Shrestha, Suchita, Huynh, Thanh-Canh, Dawadi, Sarita
Médium:	Journal Article
Jazyk:	angličtina
Vydáno:	Cham Springer International Publishing 01.12.2024 Springer Springer Nature B.V
Témata:	Applications of Mathematics Calibration Cell size climate Climate change Climate models Climatic changes Climatic conditions Discharge Earth and Environmental Science Environment Flow duration Flow duration curves Glacier melting Glaciers Glaciohydrology Global climate Goodness of fit Himalayan region Hydroclimate Hydrologic models Hydrology ice Impact analysis Math. Appl. in Environmental Science Mathematical Modeling and Industrial Mathematics Meteorological data Monsoons Nepal Operations Research/Decision Theory Parameter sensitivity Parameter uncertainty Precipitation prediction River basins Rivers runoff Sensitivity analysis Simulation methods simulation models Snow Surface-ice melting temperature Temperature dependence uncertainty watersheds Nepal Himalayan region Climate change Sensitivity Tamor River basin SPHY model
ISSN:	1420-2026, 1573-2967
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Abstract	In regions characterized by snow and glaciers, the selection of appropriate methodologies and the use of suitable hydrological models are imperative due to heightened vulnerability to the impacts of global climate change. This study focuses on the Tamor River basin (TRB) in the Eastern Himalaya of Nepal, aiming to employ an advanced hydrological model to enhance understanding and prediction. We used the SPHY-cryo-hydro-climate-impact model to simulate the daily discharge and to estimate the contribution of different runoff components both annually and seasonally. The model was chosen based on physical processes representation, the ability to simulate snow and glacier melt, and the computational efficiency to project the daily discharge simulations in changing climate. Utilizing meteorological data with high temporal (daily) and spatial (250 m × 250 m grid cell size) resolution from 1995 to 2012, the model undergoes calibration (1996–2004) and validation (2005–2012) using a manual approach due to the limited parameters requiring calibration. The model’s performance is evaluated using goodness of fit (GoF) functions, including NSE, KGE, and VD, with satisfactory results (NSE ≥ 70%, VD < 10%, KGE > 0.7) for both calibration and validation periods at two monitoring stations (690 and 684). The study reveals that snow and ice melt significantly contribute to pre-monsoon flow (March, April, and May), constituting approximately 35% of the total flow, while their influence diminishes during post-monsoon seasons (October and November). Sensitivity analyses indicate the model’s responsiveness to both temperature and precipitation forcings, with temperature exerting a more pronounced impact, particularly on temperature-dependent melt modules and the state of precipitation at higher elevations. However, uncertainties persist in the model outputs, primarily attributed to input forcings, model structure, and parameters derived from literature rather than field measurements. The observed discrepancy between flow duration curves suggests that calibrated parameters remain partially optimized and subject to uncertainty. This study underscores the complexity of hydrological modeling in snow and glacier-dominated regions and emphasizes the need for continued refinement to enhance predictive accuracy amid evolving climatic conditions.
AbstractList	In regions characterized by snow and glaciers, the selection of appropriate methodologies and the use of suitable hydrological models are imperative due to heightened vulnerability to the impacts of global climate change. This study focuses on the Tamor River basin (TRB) in the Eastern Himalaya of Nepal, aiming to employ an advanced hydrological model to enhance understanding and prediction. We used the SPHY-cryo-hydro-climate-impact model to simulate the daily discharge and to estimate the contribution of different runoff components both annually and seasonally. The model was chosen based on physical processes representation, the ability to simulate snow and glacier melt, and the computational efficiency to project the daily discharge simulations in changing climate. Utilizing meteorological data with high temporal (daily) and spatial (250 m × 250 m grid cell size) resolution from 1995 to 2012, the model undergoes calibration (1996–2004) and validation (2005–2012) using a manual approach due to the limited parameters requiring calibration. The model’s performance is evaluated using goodness of fit (GoF) functions, including NSE, KGE, and VD, with satisfactory results (NSE ≥ 70%, VD < 10%, KGE > 0.7) for both calibration and validation periods at two monitoring stations (690 and 684). The study reveals that snow and ice melt significantly contribute to pre-monsoon flow (March, April, and May), constituting approximately 35% of the total flow, while their influence diminishes during post-monsoon seasons (October and November). Sensitivity analyses indicate the model’s responsiveness to both temperature and precipitation forcings, with temperature exerting a more pronounced impact, particularly on temperature-dependent melt modules and the state of precipitation at higher elevations. However, uncertainties persist in the model outputs, primarily attributed to input forcings, model structure, and parameters derived from literature rather than field measurements. The observed discrepancy between flow duration curves suggests that calibrated parameters remain partially optimized and subject to uncertainty. This study underscores the complexity of hydrological modeling in snow and glacier-dominated regions and emphasizes the need for continued refinement to enhance predictive accuracy amid evolving climatic conditions. In regions characterized by snow and glaciers, the selection of appropriate methodologies and the use of suitable hydrological models are imperative due to heightened vulnerability to the impacts of global climate change. This study focuses on the Tamor River basin (TRB) in the Eastern Himalaya of Nepal, aiming to employ an advanced hydrological model to enhance understanding and prediction. We used the SPHY-cryo-hydro-climate-impact model to simulate the daily discharge and to estimate the contribution of different runoff components both annually and seasonally. The model was chosen based on physical processes representation, the ability to simulate snow and glacier melt, and the computational efficiency to project the daily discharge simulations in changing climate. Utilizing meteorological data with high temporal (daily) and spatial (250 m x 250 m grid cell size) resolution from 1995 to 2012, the model undergoes calibration (1996-2004) and validation (2005-2012) using a manual approach due to the limited parameters requiring calibration. The model's performance is evaluated using goodness of fit (GoF) functions, including NSE, KGE, and VD, with satisfactory results (NSE [greater than or equal to] 70%, VD 0.7) for both calibration and validation periods at two monitoring stations (690 and 684). The study reveals that snow and ice melt significantly contribute to pre-monsoon flow (March, April, and May), constituting approximately 35% of the total flow, while their influence diminishes during post-monsoon seasons (October and November). Sensitivity analyses indicate the model's responsiveness to both temperature and precipitation forcings, with temperature exerting a more pronounced impact, particularly on temperature-dependent melt modules and the state of precipitation at higher elevations. However, uncertainties persist in the model outputs, primarily attributed to input forcings, model structure, and parameters derived from literature rather than field measurements. The observed discrepancy between flow duration curves suggests that calibrated parameters remain partially optimized and subject to uncertainty. This study underscores the complexity of hydrological modeling in snow and glacier-dominated regions and emphasizes the need for continued refinement to enhance predictive accuracy amid evolving climatic conditions. In regions characterized by snow and glaciers, the selection of appropriate methodologies and the use of suitable hydrological models are imperative due to heightened vulnerability to the impacts of global climate change. This study focuses on the Tamor River basin (TRB) in the Eastern Himalaya of Nepal, aiming to employ an advanced hydrological model to enhance understanding and prediction. We used the SPHY-cryo-hydro-climate-impact model to simulate the daily discharge and to estimate the contribution of different runoff components both annually and seasonally. The model was chosen based on physical processes representation, the ability to simulate snow and glacier melt, and the computational efficiency to project the daily discharge simulations in changing climate. Utilizing meteorological data with high temporal (daily) and spatial (250 m × 250 m grid cell size) resolution from 1995 to 2012, the model undergoes calibration (1996–2004) and validation (2005–2012) using a manual approach due to the limited parameters requiring calibration. The model’s performance is evaluated using goodness of fit (GoF) functions, including NSE, KGE, and VD, with satisfactory results (NSE ≥ 70%, VD < 10%, KGE > 0.7) for both calibration and validation periods at two monitoring stations (690 and 684). The study reveals that snow and ice melt significantly contribute to pre-monsoon flow (March, April, and May), constituting approximately 35% of the total flow, while their influence diminishes during post-monsoon seasons (October and November). Sensitivity analyses indicate the model’s responsiveness to both temperature and precipitation forcings, with temperature exerting a more pronounced impact, particularly on temperature-dependent melt modules and the state of precipitation at higher elevations. However, uncertainties persist in the model outputs, primarily attributed to input forcings, model structure, and parameters derived from literature rather than field measurements. The observed discrepancy between flow duration curves suggests that calibrated parameters remain partially optimized and subject to uncertainty. This study underscores the complexity of hydrological modeling in snow and glacier-dominated regions and emphasizes the need for continued refinement to enhance predictive accuracy amid evolving climatic conditions.
Audience	Academic
Author	Shrestha, Suchita Huynh, Thanh-Canh Dawadi, Sarita Pradhan, Ananta Man Singh Silwal, Gunjan
Author_xml	– sequence: 1 givenname: Ananta Man Singh surname: Pradhan fullname: Pradhan, Ananta Man Singh email: anantageo@hotmail.com organization: Water Resources Research and Development Centre, Ministry of Energy, Water Resources and Irrigation, Government of Nepal – sequence: 2 givenname: Gunjan surname: Silwal fullname: Silwal, Gunjan organization: Water Resources Research and Development Centre, Ministry of Energy, Water Resources and Irrigation, Government of Nepal – sequence: 3 givenname: Suchita surname: Shrestha fullname: Shrestha, Suchita organization: Department of Mines and Geology, Ministry of Industry, Commerce and Supplies, Government of Nepal – sequence: 4 givenname: Thanh-Canh surname: Huynh fullname: Huynh, Thanh-Canh organization: Institute of Research and Development, Duy Tan University, Faculty of Civil Engineering, Duy Tan University – sequence: 5 givenname: Sarita surname: Dawadi fullname: Dawadi, Sarita organization: Water Resources Research and Development Centre, Ministry of Energy, Water Resources and Irrigation, Government of Nepal
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Cites_doi	10.2166/wst.2013.100 10.53055/ICIMOD.551 10.5194/hess-19-4673-2015 10.1111/j.0033-0124.1988.00428.x 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2006.09.014 10.13031/2013.26773 10.1002/hyp.10005 10.1007/s10666-014-9400-z 10.53055/ICIMOD.591 10.1002/hyp.9627 10.1002/2014JD022666 10.3389/frwa.2022.909246 10.1007/978-981-16-5493-0_12 10.1007/s12665-019-8443-5 10.3390/W9010017 10.1659/MRD-JOURNAL-D-11-00092.1 10.1029/2018GL080158 10.5194/nhess-13-795-2013 10.1016/S0022-1694(03)00257-9 10.3189/172756411799096277 10.1080/02626667.2011.637042 10.1071/SR05136 10.1016/S0022-1694(02)00029-X 10.1002/hyp.10962 10.1002/joc.4608 10.1017/jog.2020.51 10.1016/j.catena.2019.104082 10.1016/j.envsoft.2014.08.003 10.1007/978-3-319-92288-1 10.1175/1520-0442(1999)012<2775:mttith>2.0.co;2 10.1371/journal.pone.0105992 10.3126/jhm.v7i1.5616 10.5194/gmd-8-2009-2015 10.1038/ngeo1896 10.1038/S41558-022-01355-Z 10.3389/feart.2019.00354 10.1371/journal.pone.0190224 10.1016/j.advwatres.2015.01.013 10.1002/hyp.10055
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W., Miles, E. S., Petersen, L., Heynen, M., . . . Shrestha, A. (2015). Unraveling the hydrology of a Himalayan catchment through integration of high resolution in situ data and remote sensing with an advanced simulation model. Advances in Water Resources, 78, 94–111. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.advwatres.2015.01.013 WijngaardRRLutzAFNepalSKhanalSPradhanangaSShresthaABImmerzeelWWFuture changes in hydro-climatic extremes in the Upper Indus, Ganges, and Brahmaputra River basinsPLoS ONE2017121210.1371/journal.pone.0190224 Nepal, S. (2012). Evaluating upstream downstream linkages of hydrological dynamics in the Himalayan Region. Retrieved from https://uri.gbv.de/document/gvk:ppn:721385168(Dissertation) de Boer, F. (2016). HiHydroSoil: A high resolution soil map of hydraulic properties. Wageningen, the Netherlands, 20. MinasnyBMcBratneyABMendonça-SantosMOdehIOAGuyonBPrediction and digital mapping of soil carbon storage in the Lower Namoi ValleySoil Research20064432332441:CAS:528:DC%2BD28XktFWitb0%3D10.1071/SR05136 GareeKChenXBaoAWangYMengFHydrological modeling of the Upper Indus Basin: A case study from a high-altitude glacierized catchment HunzaWater2017911710.3390/W9010017 Konz, M., Finger, D., Bürgi, C., Normand, S., Immerzeel, W. W., Merz, J., . . . Burlando, P. (2010). Calibration of a distributed hydrological model for simulations of remote glacierized Himalayan catchments using MODIS snow cover data. In Global Change: Facing Risks and Threats to Water Resources (Proc. of the Sixth World FRIEND Conference, Fez, Morocco), (October), 465–473. BhattaBShresthaSShresthaPKTalchabhadelREvaluation and application of a SWAT model to assess the climate change impact on the hydrology of the Himalayan River BasinCATENA201918110.1016/j.catena.2019.104082 CogleyJGPresent and future states of Himalaya and Karakoram glaciersAnnals of Glaciology20115259697310.3189/172756411799096277 NepalSKrausePFlügelWFinkMFischerCUnderstanding the hydrological system dynamics of a glaciated alpine catchment in the Himalayan region using the J2000 hydrological modelHydrological Processes20142831329134410.1002/hyp.9627 ScherlerDWulfHGorelickNGlobal assessment of supraglacial debris-cover extentsGeophysical Research Letters201845211179810.1029/2018GL080158 HockRTemperature index melt modelling in mountain areasJournal of Hydrology20032821–410411510.1016/S0022-1694(03)00257-9 ChenNSHuGSDengWKhanalNZhuYHHanDOn the water hazards in the trans-boundary Kosi River basinNatural Hazards and Earth System Sciences201313379580810.5194/nhess-13-795-2013 ShresthaABWakeCPMayewskiPADibbJEMaximum temperature trends in the Himalaya and its vicinity: An analysis based on temperature records from Nepal for the period 197194Journal of Climate19991292775278610.1175/1520-0442(1999)012<2775:mttith>2.0.co;2 BajracharyaSRShresthaBRThe status of glaciers in the Hindu Kush-Himalayan region2011International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development (ICIMOD)10.53055/ICIMOD.551 FontaineTACruickshankTSArnoldJGHotchkissRHDevelopment of a snowfall–snowmelt routine for mountainous terrain for the soil water assessment tool (SWAT)Journal of hydrology20022621–420922310.1016/S0022-1694(02)00029-X TerinkWLutzAFSimonsGWHImmerzeelWWDroogersPSPHY v2.0: Spatial processes in hydrologyGeoscientific Model Development2015872009203410.5194/gmd-8-2009-2015 HargreavesGHSamaniZAReference crop evapotranspiration from temperatureApplied Engineering in Agriculture198512969910.13031/2013.26773 Molden, D. J., Shrestha, A. B., Immerzeel, W. W., Maharjan, A., Rasul, G., Wester, P., . . . Nepal, S. (2022). The great glacier and snow-dependent rivers of Asia and climate change: Heading for troubled waters. Water Resources Development and Management. Springer Singapore. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-16-5493-0_12 Hengl, T., de Jesus, J. M., MacMillan, R. A., Batjes, N. H., Heuvelink, G. B. M., Ribeiro, E., . . . Walsh, M. G. (2014). SoilGrids1km—Global soil information based on automated mapping. PloS One, 9(8), e105992. KarkiRSrivastavaPKalinLEvaluating climate change impacts in a heavily irrigated karst watershed using a coupled surface and groundwater modelJournal of Hydrology: Regional Studies202350 World Health Organization. (1999). 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Snippet	In regions characterized by snow and glaciers, the selection of appropriate methodologies and the use of suitable hydrological models are imperative due to...
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SubjectTerms	Applications of Mathematics Calibration Cell size climate Climate change Climate models Climatic changes Climatic conditions Discharge Earth and Environmental Science Environment Flow duration Flow duration curves Glacier melting Glaciers Glaciohydrology Global climate Goodness of fit Himalayan region Hydroclimate Hydrologic models Hydrology ice Impact analysis Math. Appl. in Environmental Science Mathematical Modeling and Industrial Mathematics Meteorological data Monsoons Nepal Operations Research/Decision Theory Parameter sensitivity Parameter uncertainty Precipitation prediction River basins Rivers runoff Sensitivity analysis Simulation methods simulation models Snow Surface-ice melting temperature Temperature dependence uncertainty watersheds
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Title	Can a Spatially Distributed Hydrological Model Effectively Analyze Hydrological Processes in the Nepal Himalaya River Basin?
URI	https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10666-024-09975-9 https://www.proquest.com/docview/3120701468 https://www.proquest.com/docview/3153858624
Volume	29
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