Synergistic effects of climate and land‐use change influence broad‐scale avian population declines

Climate and land‐use changes are expected to be the primary drivers of future global biodiversity loss. Although theory suggests that these factors impact species synergistically, past studies have either focused on only one in isolation or have substituted space for time, which often results in con...

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Vydané v:	Global change biology Ročník 25; číslo 5; s. 1561 - 1575
Hlavní autori:	Northrup, Joseph M., Rivers, James W., Yang, Zhiqiang, Betts, Matthew G.
Médium:	Journal Article
Jazyk:	English
Vydavateľské údaje:	England Blackwell Publishing Ltd 01.05.2019
Predmet:	Animal population Animal populations Bayesian hierarchical model Biodiversity Biodiversity loss Bird populations Birds Breeding Bird Survey climate Climate change Climate effects Dynamics Environmental impact Forests habitat destruction Habitat loss Land use land use change Landscape landscapes Population decline population dynamics Populations Spatial variations synergism Synergistic effect synergistic effects temperature Time series time series analysis United States United States Bayesian hierarchical model land-use change habitat loss synergistic effects Breeding Bird Survey climate change
ISSN:	1354-1013, 1365-2486, 1365-2486
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Abstract	Climate and land‐use changes are expected to be the primary drivers of future global biodiversity loss. Although theory suggests that these factors impact species synergistically, past studies have either focused on only one in isolation or have substituted space for time, which often results in confounding between drivers. Tests of synergistic effects require congruent time series on animal populations, climate change and land‐use change replicated across landscapes that span the gradient of correlations between the drivers of change. Using a unique time series of high‐resolution climate (measured as temperature and precipitation) and land‐use change (measured as forest change) data, we show that these drivers of global change act synergistically to influence forest bird population declines over 29 years in the Pacific Northwest of the United States. Nearly half of the species examined had declined over this time. Populations declined most in response to loss of early seral and mature forest, with responses to loss of early seral forest amplified in landscapes that had warmed over time. In addition, birds declined more in response to loss of mature forest in areas that had dried over time. Climate change did not appear to impact populations in landscapes with limited habitat loss, except when those landscapes were initially warmer than the average landscape. Our results provide some of the first empirical evidence of synergistic effects of climate and land‐use change on animal population dynamics, suggesting accelerated loss of biodiversity in areas under pressure from multiple global change drivers. Furthermore, our findings suggest strong spatial variability in the impacts of climate change and highlight the need for future studies to evaluate multiple drivers simultaneously to avoid potential misattribution of effects. Birds in the Pacific Northwest of the United States declined most strongly in response to loss of mature forest, followed by loss of early seral forest. Declines from loss of mature forest were strongest in landscapes that had become drier over time and declines from loss of early seral forest were strongest in landscapes that had warmed over time. This is some of the first empirical evidence for synergistic effects of the two greatest threats to biodiversity and suggest the potential for underestimation of biodiversity declines from studies focusing on only climate or land‐use change in isolation.
AbstractList	Climate and land-use changes are expected to be the primary drivers of future global biodiversity loss. Although theory suggests that these factors impact species synergistically, past studies have either focused on only one in isolation or have substituted space for time, which often results in confounding between drivers. Tests of synergistic effects require congruent time series on animal populations, climate change and land-use change replicated across landscapes that span the gradient of correlations between the drivers of change. Using a unique time series of high-resolution climate (measured as temperature and precipitation) and land-use change (measured as forest change) data, we show that these drivers of global change act synergistically to influence forest bird population declines over 29 years in the Pacific Northwest of the United States. Nearly half of the species examined had declined over this time. Populations declined most in response to loss of early seral and mature forest, with responses to loss of early seral forest amplified in landscapes that had warmed over time. In addition, birds declined more in response to loss of mature forest in areas that had dried over time. Climate change did not appear to impact populations in landscapes with limited habitat loss, except when those landscapes were initially warmer than the average landscape. Our results provide some of the first empirical evidence of synergistic effects of climate and land-use change on animal population dynamics, suggesting accelerated loss of biodiversity in areas under pressure from multiple global change drivers. Furthermore, our findings suggest strong spatial variability in the impacts of climate change and highlight the need for future studies to evaluate multiple drivers simultaneously to avoid potential misattribution of effects. Climate and land‐use changes are expected to be the primary drivers of future global biodiversity loss. Although theory suggests that these factors impact species synergistically, past studies have either focused on only one in isolation or have substituted space for time, which often results in confounding between drivers. Tests of synergistic effects require congruent time series on animal populations, climate change and land‐use change replicated across landscapes that span the gradient of correlations between the drivers of change. Using a unique time series of high‐resolution climate (measured as temperature and precipitation) and land‐use change (measured as forest change) data, we show that these drivers of global change act synergistically to influence forest bird population declines over 29 years in the Pacific Northwest of the United States. Nearly half of the species examined had declined over this time. Populations declined most in response to loss of early seral and mature forest, with responses to loss of early seral forest amplified in landscapes that had warmed over time. In addition, birds declined more in response to loss of mature forest in areas that had dried over time. Climate change did not appear to impact populations in landscapes with limited habitat loss, except when those landscapes were initially warmer than the average landscape. Our results provide some of the first empirical evidence of synergistic effects of climate and land‐use change on animal population dynamics, suggesting accelerated loss of biodiversity in areas under pressure from multiple global change drivers. Furthermore, our findings suggest strong spatial variability in the impacts of climate change and highlight the need for future studies to evaluate multiple drivers simultaneously to avoid potential misattribution of effects. Birds in the Pacific Northwest of the United States declined most strongly in response to loss of mature forest, followed by loss of early seral forest. Declines from loss of mature forest were strongest in landscapes that had become drier over time and declines from loss of early seral forest were strongest in landscapes that had warmed over time. This is some of the first empirical evidence for synergistic effects of the two greatest threats to biodiversity and suggest the potential for underestimation of biodiversity declines from studies focusing on only climate or land‐use change in isolation. Climate and land‐use changes are expected to be the primary drivers of future global biodiversity loss. Although theory suggests that these factors impact species synergistically, past studies have either focused on only one in isolation or have substituted space for time, which often results in confounding between drivers. Tests of synergistic effects require congruent time series on animal populations, climate change and land‐use change replicated across landscapes that span the gradient of correlations between the drivers of change. Using a unique time series of high‐resolution climate (measured as temperature and precipitation) and land‐use change (measured as forest change) data, we show that these drivers of global change act synergistically to influence forest bird population declines over 29 years in the Pacific Northwest of the United States. Nearly half of the species examined had declined over this time. Populations declined most in response to loss of early seral and mature forest, with responses to loss of early seral forest amplified in landscapes that had warmed over time. In addition, birds declined more in response to loss of mature forest in areas that had dried over time. Climate change did not appear to impact populations in landscapes with limited habitat loss, except when those landscapes were initially warmer than the average landscape. Our results provide some of the first empirical evidence of synergistic effects of climate and land‐use change on animal population dynamics, suggesting accelerated loss of biodiversity in areas under pressure from multiple global change drivers. Furthermore, our findings suggest strong spatial variability in the impacts of climate change and highlight the need for future studies to evaluate multiple drivers simultaneously to avoid potential misattribution of effects. Climate and land-use changes are expected to be the primary drivers of future global biodiversity loss. Although theory suggests that these factors impact species synergistically, past studies have either focused on only one in isolation or have substituted space for time, which often results in confounding between drivers. Tests of synergistic effects require congruent time series on animal populations, climate change and land-use change replicated across landscapes that span the gradient of correlations between the drivers of change. Using a unique time series of high-resolution climate (measured as temperature and precipitation) and land-use change (measured as forest change) data, we show that these drivers of global change act synergistically to influence forest bird population declines over 29 years in the Pacific Northwest of the United States. Nearly half of the species examined had declined over this time. Populations declined most in response to loss of early seral and mature forest, with responses to loss of early seral forest amplified in landscapes that had warmed over time. In addition, birds declined more in response to loss of mature forest in areas that had dried over time. Climate change did not appear to impact populations in landscapes with limited habitat loss, except when those landscapes were initially warmer than the average landscape. Our results provide some of the first empirical evidence of synergistic effects of climate and land-use change on animal population dynamics, suggesting accelerated loss of biodiversity in areas under pressure from multiple global change drivers. Furthermore, our findings suggest strong spatial variability in the impacts of climate change and highlight the need for future studies to evaluate multiple drivers simultaneously to avoid potential misattribution of effects.Climate and land-use changes are expected to be the primary drivers of future global biodiversity loss. Although theory suggests that these factors impact species synergistically, past studies have either focused on only one in isolation or have substituted space for time, which often results in confounding between drivers. Tests of synergistic effects require congruent time series on animal populations, climate change and land-use change replicated across landscapes that span the gradient of correlations between the drivers of change. Using a unique time series of high-resolution climate (measured as temperature and precipitation) and land-use change (measured as forest change) data, we show that these drivers of global change act synergistically to influence forest bird population declines over 29 years in the Pacific Northwest of the United States. Nearly half of the species examined had declined over this time. Populations declined most in response to loss of early seral and mature forest, with responses to loss of early seral forest amplified in landscapes that had warmed over time. In addition, birds declined more in response to loss of mature forest in areas that had dried over time. Climate change did not appear to impact populations in landscapes with limited habitat loss, except when those landscapes were initially warmer than the average landscape. Our results provide some of the first empirical evidence of synergistic effects of climate and land-use change on animal population dynamics, suggesting accelerated loss of biodiversity in areas under pressure from multiple global change drivers. Furthermore, our findings suggest strong spatial variability in the impacts of climate change and highlight the need for future studies to evaluate multiple drivers simultaneously to avoid potential misattribution of effects.
Author	Betts, Matthew G. Yang, Zhiqiang Northrup, Joseph M. Rivers, James W.
Author_xml	– sequence: 1 givenname: Joseph M. orcidid: 0000-0001-6319-4138 surname: Northrup fullname: Northrup, Joseph M. email: joe.northrup@gmail.com organization: Ontario Ministry of Natural Resources and Forestry, Wildlife Research and Monitoring Section – sequence: 2 givenname: James W. orcidid: 0000-0001-5041-6002 surname: Rivers fullname: Rivers, James W. organization: Oregon State University – sequence: 3 givenname: Zhiqiang surname: Yang fullname: Yang, Zhiqiang organization: RMRS Research Station – sequence: 4 givenname: Matthew G. orcidid: 0000-0002-7100-2551 surname: Betts fullname: Betts, Matthew G. email: matt.betts@oregonstate.edu organization: Oregon State University
BackLink	https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/30810257$$D View this record in MEDLINE/PubMed
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Snippet	Climate and land‐use changes are expected to be the primary drivers of future global biodiversity loss. Although theory suggests that these factors impact... Climate and land-use changes are expected to be the primary drivers of future global biodiversity loss. Although theory suggests that these factors impact...
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SubjectTerms	Animal population Animal populations Bayesian hierarchical model Biodiversity Biodiversity loss Bird populations Birds Breeding Bird Survey climate Climate change Climate effects Dynamics Environmental impact Forests habitat destruction Habitat loss Land use land use change Landscape landscapes Population decline population dynamics Populations Spatial variations synergism Synergistic effect synergistic effects temperature Time series time series analysis United States
Title	Synergistic effects of climate and land‐use change influence broad‐scale avian population declines
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