Sustained ocean cooling insufficient to reverse sea level rise from Antarctica
Global mean sea level has risen at an accelerating rate in the last decade and will continue to rise for centuries. The Amundsen Sea Embayment in West Antarctica is a critical region for present and future ice loss, however most studies consider only a worst-case future for the region. Here we use i...
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| Vydané v: | Communications earth & environment Ročník 5; číslo 1; s. 150 - 9 |
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| Hlavní autori: | , , , , |
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| Jazyk: | English |
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Nature Publishing Group
01.12.2024
Nature Portfolio |
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| Abstract | Global mean sea level has risen at an accelerating rate in the last decade and will continue to rise for centuries. The Amundsen Sea Embayment in West Antarctica is a critical region for present and future ice loss, however most studies consider only a worst-case future for the region. Here we use ice sheet model sensitivity experiments to investigate the centennial scale implications of short-term periods of enhanced ocean driven sub-ice shelf melting on ice loss and assess what future reduction in melting is necessary to mitigate ice stream retreat and offset global sea level rise. Our findings reveal that restoring elevated melt rates to present-day levels within 100 years causes rates of ice discharge to immediately decline, thereby limiting the overall sea level contribution from the region. However, while ice stream re-advance and slowed ice discharge is possible with reduced basal melting, a centennial scale increase in accumulation must occur to offset the extensive ice loss. |
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| AbstractList | Abstract Global mean sea level has risen at an accelerating rate in the last decade and will continue to rise for centuries. The Amundsen Sea Embayment in West Antarctica is a critical region for present and future ice loss, however most studies consider only a worst-case future for the region. Here we use ice sheet model sensitivity experiments to investigate the centennial scale implications of short-term periods of enhanced ocean driven sub-ice shelf melting on ice loss and assess what future reduction in melting is necessary to mitigate ice stream retreat and offset global sea level rise. Our findings reveal that restoring elevated melt rates to present-day levels within 100 years causes rates of ice discharge to immediately decline, thereby limiting the overall sea level contribution from the region. However, while ice stream re-advance and slowed ice discharge is possible with reduced basal melting, a centennial scale increase in accumulation must occur to offset the extensive ice loss. Global mean sea level has risen at an accelerating rate in the last decade and will continue to rise for centuries. The Amundsen Sea Embayment in West Antarctica is a critical region for present and future ice loss, however most studies consider only a worst-case future for the region. Here we use ice sheet model sensitivity experiments to investigate the centennial scale implications of short-term periods of enhanced ocean driven sub-ice shelf melting on ice loss and assess what future reduction in melting is necessary to mitigate ice stream retreat and offset global sea level rise. Our findings reveal that restoring elevated melt rates to present-day levels within 100 years causes rates of ice discharge to immediately decline, thereby limiting the overall sea level contribution from the region. However, while ice stream re-advance and slowed ice discharge is possible with reduced basal melting, a centennial scale increase in accumulation must occur to offset the extensive ice loss.If elevated ice-melt rates in the Amundsen Sea Embayment, West Antarctica, can be restored to present levels within 100 years, rates of ice discharge and the sea level contribution from the region can be limited, suggest sensitivity experiments with an ice sheet model. Global mean sea level has risen at an accelerating rate in the last decade and will continue to rise for centuries. The Amundsen Sea Embayment in West Antarctica is a critical region for present and future ice loss, however most studies consider only a worst-case future for the region. Here we use ice sheet model sensitivity experiments to investigate the centennial scale implications of short-term periods of enhanced ocean driven sub-ice shelf melting on ice loss and assess what future reduction in melting is necessary to mitigate ice stream retreat and offset global sea level rise. Our findings reveal that restoring elevated melt rates to present-day levels within 100 years causes rates of ice discharge to immediately decline, thereby limiting the overall sea level contribution from the region. However, while ice stream re-advance and slowed ice discharge is possible with reduced basal melting, a centennial scale increase in accumulation must occur to offset the extensive ice loss. |
| ArticleNumber | 150 |
| Author | Lowry, Daniel P. Alevropoulos-Borrill, Alanna Cornford, Stephen L. Golledge, Nicholas R. Krapp, Mario |
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| SubjectTerms | Ablation Bays Discharge Glaciation Global sea level Ice Ice sheet models Ice sheets Ice shelves Land ice Mean sea level Melting Oceans Rivers Sea level Sea level changes Sea level rise Sensitivity Sheet modelling |
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| Title | Sustained ocean cooling insufficient to reverse sea level rise from Antarctica |
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