Disentangling drivers of annual grass invasion: Abiotic susceptibility vs. fire-induced conversion to cheatgrass dominance in the sagebrush biome
Invasive annual grasses are often facilitated by fire, yet they can become ecologically dominant in susceptible locations even in the absence of fire. We used an extensive vegetation plot database to model susceptibility to the invasive annual grass cheatgrass (Bromus tectorum L.) in the sagebrush b...
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| Published in: | Biological conservation Vol. 297; p. 110737 |
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| Main Authors: | , , , , , , |
| Format: | Journal Article |
| Language: | English |
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Elsevier Ltd
01.09.2024
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| ISSN: | 0006-3207 |
| Online Access: | Get full text |
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| Abstract | Invasive annual grasses are often facilitated by fire, yet they can become ecologically dominant in susceptible locations even in the absence of fire. We used an extensive vegetation plot database to model susceptibility to the invasive annual grass cheatgrass (Bromus tectorum L.) in the sagebrush biome as a function of climate and soil water availability variables. We built random forest models predicting cheatgrass presence or dominance (>15 % relative cover) under unburned (37,219 plots) and burned conditions (6340 plots). We mapped predicted probability of cheatgrass presence and dominance, conditional on burning. We combined predicted susceptibility with burn probability to quantify the 10-year total risk of cheatgrass dominance. Finally, we identified portions of the landscape (1) at risk of fire-induced conversion to cheatgrass dominance, (2) consistently susceptible to cheatgrass dominance, or (3) consistently resistant to cheatgrass dominance. At the scale of the sagebrush biome, we found that abiotic susceptibility to cheatgrass dominance drives total risk, regardless of fire. At local scales (i.e., individual 30 m pixels), burning increased the probability of cheatgrass dominance by a median of 14 %. Threshold-based analyses indicate that 10–31 % of the sagebrush biome was at risk of fire-induced dominance, with 55 % exhibiting abiotic resistance and 5 % exhibiting abiotic susceptibility to dominance regardless of fire. Burn probability was higher in areas predicted to be susceptible to dominance, illustrating how cheatgrass invasion can cause ecosystem conversions that are then sustained by grass-fire cycles. Disentangling the influence of abiotic conditions and fire contributes to our understanding of the mechanisms driving invasion dynamics, and modeling the probability of dominance can help anticipate where ecological transformations are at risk of occurring. Our approach can facilitate the prioritization of management actions in the sagebrush biome and be used as a framework for modeling invasion risk in other disturbance-prone ecosystems. |
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| AbstractList | Invasive annual grasses are often facilitated by fire, yet they can become ecologically dominant in susceptible locations even in the absence of fire. We used an extensive vegetation plot database to model susceptibility to the invasive annual grass cheatgrass (Bromus tectorum L.) in the sagebrush biome as a function of climate and soil water availability variables. We built random forest models predicting cheatgrass presence or dominance (>15 % relative cover) under unburned (37,219 plots) and burned conditions (6340 plots). We mapped predicted probability of cheatgrass presence and dominance, conditional on burning. We combined predicted susceptibility with burn probability to quantify the 10-year total risk of cheatgrass dominance. Finally, we identified portions of the landscape (1) at risk of fire-induced conversion to cheatgrass dominance, (2) consistently susceptible to cheatgrass dominance, or (3) consistently resistant to cheatgrass dominance. At the scale of the sagebrush biome, we found that abiotic susceptibility to cheatgrass dominance drives total risk, regardless of fire. At local scales (i.e., individual 30 m pixels), burning increased the probability of cheatgrass dominance by a median of 14 %. Threshold-based analyses indicate that 10–31 % of the sagebrush biome was at risk of fire-induced dominance, with 55 % exhibiting abiotic resistance and 5 % exhibiting abiotic susceptibility to dominance regardless of fire. Burn probability was higher in areas predicted to be susceptible to dominance, illustrating how cheatgrass invasion can cause ecosystem conversions that are then sustained by grass-fire cycles. Disentangling the influence of abiotic conditions and fire contributes to our understanding of the mechanisms driving invasion dynamics, and modeling the probability of dominance can help anticipate where ecological transformations are at risk of occurring. Our approach can facilitate the prioritization of management actions in the sagebrush biome and be used as a framework for modeling invasion risk in other disturbance-prone ecosystems. Invasive annual grasses are often facilitated by fire, yet they can become ecologically dominant in susceptible locations even in the absence of fire. We used an extensive vegetation plot database to model susceptibility to the invasive annual grass cheatgrass (Bromus tectorum L.) in the sagebrush biome as a function of climate and soil water availability variables. We built random forest models predicting cheatgrass presence or dominance (>15 % relative cover) under unburned (37,219 plots) and burned conditions (6340 plots). We mapped predicted probability of cheatgrass presence and dominance, conditional on burning. We combined predicted susceptibility with burn probability to quantify the 10-year total risk of cheatgrass dominance. Finally, we identified portions of the landscape (1) at risk of fire-induced conversion to cheatgrass dominance, (2) consistently susceptible to cheatgrass dominance, or (3) consistently resistant to cheatgrass dominance. At the scale of the sagebrush biome, we found that abiotic susceptibility to cheatgrass dominance drives total risk, regardless of fire. At local scales (i.e., individual 30 m pixels), burning increased the probability of cheatgrass dominance by a median of 14 %. Threshold-based analyses indicate that 10–31 % of the sagebrush biome was at risk of fire-induced dominance, with 55 % exhibiting abiotic resistance and 5 % exhibiting abiotic susceptibility to dominance regardless of fire. Burn probability was higher in areas predicted to be susceptible to dominance, illustrating how cheatgrass invasion can cause ecosystem conversions that are then sustained by grass-fire cycles. Disentangling the influence of abiotic conditions and fire contributes to our understanding of the mechanisms driving invasion dynamics, and modeling the probability of dominance can help anticipate where ecological transformations are at risk of occurring. Our approach can facilitate the prioritization of management actions in the sagebrush biome and be used as a framework for modeling invasion risk in other disturbance-prone ecosystems. |
| ArticleNumber | 110737 |
| Author | Chambers, Jeanne C. Short, Karen C. Urza, Alexandra K. Schlaepfer, Daniel R. Board, David I. Brown, Jessi L. Bradford, John B. |
| Author_xml | – sequence: 1 givenname: Alexandra K. orcidid: 0000-0001-9795-6735 surname: Urza fullname: Urza, Alexandra K. email: alexandra.urza@usda.gov organization: USDA Forest Service, Rocky Mountain Research Station, Reno, NV, USA – sequence: 2 givenname: David I. orcidid: 0000-0001-6140-1260 surname: Board fullname: Board, David I. organization: USDA Forest Service, Rocky Mountain Research Station, Reno, NV, USA – sequence: 3 givenname: John B. orcidid: 0000-0001-9257-6303 surname: Bradford fullname: Bradford, John B. organization: U.S. Geological Survey, Northwest Climate Adaptation Science Center & Southwest Biological Science Center, Flagstaff, AZ, USA – sequence: 4 givenname: Jessi L. orcidid: 0000-0002-6126-7951 surname: Brown fullname: Brown, Jessi L. organization: USDA Forest Service, Rocky Mountain Research Station, Reno, NV, USA – sequence: 5 givenname: Jeanne C. orcidid: 0000-0003-3111-269X surname: Chambers fullname: Chambers, Jeanne C. organization: USDA Forest Service, Rocky Mountain Research Station, Reno, NV, USA – sequence: 6 givenname: Daniel R. surname: Schlaepfer fullname: Schlaepfer, Daniel R. organization: U.S. Geological Survey, Northwest Climate Adaptation Science Center & Southwest Biological Science Center, Flagstaff, AZ, USA – sequence: 7 givenname: Karen C. orcidid: 0000-0002-3383-0460 surname: Short fullname: Short, Karen C. organization: USDA Forest Service, Rocky Mountain Research Station, Missoula, MT 59808, USA |
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| Keywords | Cheatgrass Dominance Fire-induced conversion Invasive annual grasses Sagebrush biome Bromus tectorum |
| Language | English |
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| Snippet | Invasive annual grasses are often facilitated by fire, yet they can become ecologically dominant in susceptible locations even in the absence of fire. We used... |
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| SubjectTerms | Artemisia Bromus tectorum Cheatgrass climate Dominance ecosystems Fire-induced conversion grasses Invasive annual grasses landscapes plant available water prioritization risk Sagebrush biome vegetation |
| Title | Disentangling drivers of annual grass invasion: Abiotic susceptibility vs. fire-induced conversion to cheatgrass dominance in the sagebrush biome |
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