Short-term power-forecasting method of distributed PV power system for consideration of its effects on load forecasting

This study analyses the distributed photovoltaic (PV) power system effects on common short-term load forecasting, based on the proposed power penetration index, and load data reconfiguration method, by using common short-term load-forecasting algorithm under conditions of the distributed PV power sy...

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Veröffentlicht in:	Journal of engineering (Stevenage, England) Jg. 2017; H. 13; S. 865 - 869
Hauptverfasser:	Liu, Yu, Li, Zhi, Bai, Kai, Zhang, Zhaoguang, Lu, Xining, Zhang, Xiaomeng
Format:	Journal Article
Sprache:	Englisch
Veröffentlicht:	The Institution of Engineering and Technology 2017
Schlagworte:	backpropagation BP neutral network common short‐term load‐forecasting algorithm distributed photovoltaic power system distributed power generation distributed PV power system load data reconfiguration method load forecasting neural nets photovoltaic power systems power engineering computing power penetration index power‐forecasting accuracy short‐term load‐forecasting accuracy short‐term power‐forecasting method typical distributed PV power system updated load‐forecasting model distributed PV power system typical distributed PV power system BP neutral network photovoltaic power systems short-term power-forecasting method power penetration index load data reconfiguration method distributed power generation power-forecasting accuracy distributed photovoltaic power system power engineering computing common short-term load-forecasting algorithm short-term load-forecasting accuracy updated load-forecasting model load forecasting backpropagation neural nets
ISSN:	2051-3305, 2051-3305
Online-Zugang:	Volltext
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Zusammenfassung:	This study analyses the distributed photovoltaic (PV) power system effects on common short-term load forecasting, based on the proposed power penetration index, and load data reconfiguration method, by using common short-term load-forecasting algorithm under conditions of the distributed PV power system and the power penetration index as 0, 5, 10, 15, 20, 24.46, 30, 35, 40, 50, 60 and 75%, the short-term load-forecasting accuracy obviously decreases. In this research study, the short-term power-forecasting method is proposed in order to offset the power output of distributed PV power systems, and transfer to the original load without the effects of distributed PV power systems or treated as the input information for updated load-forecasting model, this study proposes the short-term power-forecasting algorithm based on the BP neutral network for the typical distributed PV power system through training and validation of the proposed model. The power-forecasting accuracy is analysed and verified for a typical distributed PV power system, and the proposed method is effective in improving the accuracy for load forecasting.
ISSN:	2051-3305 2051-3305
DOI:	10.1049/joe.2017.0453