Rare Event Sampling Improves Mercury Instability Statistics

Due to the chaotic nature of planetary dynamics, there is a non-zero probability that Mercury’s orbit will become unstable in the future. Previous efforts have estimated the probability of this happening between 3 and 5 billion years in the future using a large number of direct numerical simulations...

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Bibliographic Details

Published in:	The Astrophysical journal Vol. 923; no. 2; pp. 236 - 244
Main Authors:	Abbot, Dorian S., Webber, Robert J., Hadden, Sam, Seligman, Darryl, Weare, Jonathan
Format:	Journal Article
Language:	English
Published:	Philadelphia The American Astronomical Society 01.12.2021 IOP Publishing
Subjects:	ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS Astrophysics Computer simulation Direct numerical simulation Dynamic stability Estimates Instability Mercury Mercury (planet) Numerical simulations Orbital mechanics Planetary dynamics Sampling methods Sampling techniques
ISSN:	0004-637X, 1538-4357
Online Access:	Get full text
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