Warming weakens the night-time barrier to global fire

Night-time provides a critical window for slowing or extinguishing fires owing to the lower temperature and the lower vapour pressure deficit (VPD). However, fire danger is most often assessed based on daytime conditions 1 , 2 , capturing what promotes fire spread rather than what impedes fire. Alth...

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Vydané v:	Nature (London) Ročník 602; číslo 7897; s. 442 - 448
Hlavní autori:	Balch, Jennifer K., Abatzoglou, John T., Joseph, Maxwell B., Koontz, Michael J., Mahood, Adam L., McGlinchy, Joseph, Cattau, Megan E., Williams, A. Park
Médium:	Journal Article
Jazyk:	English
Vydavateľské údaje:	London Nature Publishing Group UK 17.02.2022 Nature Publishing Group
Predmet:	704/106/694/2739 704/172/4081 Anthropogenic climate changes Anthropogenic factors Climate change Climatic data Darkness Daytime Fire danger Fire hazards Flammability Forest & brush fires Global Warming - statistics & numerical data Humanities and Social Sciences Humidity Low temperature multidisciplinary Night Satellite observation Satellites Science Science (multidisciplinary) Seasons Trends Vapor pressure Weather Weather conditions Wildfires Wildfires - prevention & control Wildfires - statistics & numerical data Australia
ISSN:	0028-0836, 1476-4687, 1476-4687
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Abstract	Night-time provides a critical window for slowing or extinguishing fires owing to the lower temperature and the lower vapour pressure deficit (VPD). However, fire danger is most often assessed based on daytime conditions 1 , 2 , capturing what promotes fire spread rather than what impedes fire. Although it is well appreciated that changing daytime weather conditions are exacerbating fire, potential changes in night-time conditions—and their associated role as fire reducers—are less understood. Here we show that night-time fire intensity has increased, which is linked to hotter and drier nights. Our findings are based on global satellite observations of daytime and night-time fire detections and corresponding hourly climate data, from which we determine landcover-specific thresholds of VPD (VPD t ), below which fire detections are very rare (less than 95 per cent modelled chance). Globally, daily minimum VPD increased by 25 per cent from 1979 to 2020. Across burnable lands, the annual number of flammable night-time hours—when VPD exceeds VPD t —increased by 110 hours, allowing five additional nights when flammability never ceases. Across nearly one-fifth of burnable lands, flammable nights increased by at least one week across this period. Globally, night fires have become 7.2 per cent more intense from 2003 to 2020, measured via a satellite record. These results reinforce the lack of night-time relief that wildfire suppression teams have experienced in recent years. We expect that continued night-time warming owing to anthropogenic climate change will promote more intense, longer-lasting and larger fires. An analysis of satellite observations and climate data shows that night-time fire intensity has increased over the past two decades owing to hotter and drier nights under anthropogenic climate change.
AbstractList	Night-time provides a critical window for slowing or extinguishing fires owing to the lower temperature and the lower vapour pressure deficit (VPD). However, fire danger is most often assessed based on daytime conditions1,2, capturing what promotes fire spread rather than what impedes fire. Although it is well appreciated that changing daytime weather conditions are exacerbating fire, potential changes in night-time conditions-and their associated role as fire reducers-are less understood. Here we show that night-time fire intensity has increased, which is linked to hotter and drier nights. Our findings are based on global satellite observations of daytime and night-time fire detections and corresponding hourly climate data, from which we determine landcover-specific thresholds of VPD (VPDt), below which fire detections are very rare (less than 95 per cent modelled chance). Globally, daily minimum VPD increased by 25 per cent from 1979 to 2020. Across burnable lands, the annual number of flammable night-time hours-when VPD exceeds VPDt-increased by 110 hours, allowing five additional nights when flammability never ceases. Across nearly one-fifth of burnable lands, flammable nights increased by at least one week across this period. Globally, night fires have become 7.2 per cent more intense from 2003 to 2020, measured via a satellite record. These results reinforce the lack of night-time relief that wildfire suppression teams have experienced in recent years. We expect that continued night-time warming owing to anthropogenic climate change will promote more intense, longer-lasting and larger fires.Night-time provides a critical window for slowing or extinguishing fires owing to the lower temperature and the lower vapour pressure deficit (VPD). However, fire danger is most often assessed based on daytime conditions1,2, capturing what promotes fire spread rather than what impedes fire. Although it is well appreciated that changing daytime weather conditions are exacerbating fire, potential changes in night-time conditions-and their associated role as fire reducers-are less understood. Here we show that night-time fire intensity has increased, which is linked to hotter and drier nights. Our findings are based on global satellite observations of daytime and night-time fire detections and corresponding hourly climate data, from which we determine landcover-specific thresholds of VPD (VPDt), below which fire detections are very rare (less than 95 per cent modelled chance). Globally, daily minimum VPD increased by 25 per cent from 1979 to 2020. Across burnable lands, the annual number of flammable night-time hours-when VPD exceeds VPDt-increased by 110 hours, allowing five additional nights when flammability never ceases. Across nearly one-fifth of burnable lands, flammable nights increased by at least one week across this period. Globally, night fires have become 7.2 per cent more intense from 2003 to 2020, measured via a satellite record. These results reinforce the lack of night-time relief that wildfire suppression teams have experienced in recent years. We expect that continued night-time warming owing to anthropogenic climate change will promote more intense, longer-lasting and larger fires. Night-time provides a critical window for slowing or extinguishing fires owing to the lower temperature and the lower vapour pressure deficit (VPD). However, fire danger is most often assessed based on daytime conditions1,2, capturing what promotes fire spread rather than what impedes fire. Although it is well appreciated that changing daytime weather conditions are exacerbating fire, potential changes in night-time conditions-and their associated role as fire reducers-are less understood. Here we show that night-time fire intensity has increased, which is linked to hotter and drier nights. Our findings are based on global satellite observations of daytime and night-time fire detections and corresponding hourly climate data, from which we determine landcover-specific thresholds of VPD (VPDt), below which fire detections are very rare (less than 95 per cent modelled chance). Globally, daily minimum VPD increased by 25 per cent from 1979 to 2020. Across burnable lands, the annual number of flammable night-time hours-when VPD exceeds VPDt-increased by 110 hours, allowing five additional nights when flammability never ceases. Across nearly one-fifth of burnable lands, flammable nights increased by at least one week across this period. Globally, night fires have become 7.2 per cent more intense from 2003 to 2020, measured via a satellite record. These results reinforce the lack of night-time relief that wildfire suppression teams have experienced in recent years. We expect that continued night-time warming owing to anthropogenic climate change will promote more intense, longer-lasting and larger fires. Night-time provides a critical window for slowing or extinguishing fires owing to the lower temperature and the lower vapour pressure deficit (VPD). However, fire danger is most often assessed based on daytime conditions , capturing what promotes fire spread rather than what impedes fire. Although it is well appreciated that changing daytime weather conditions are exacerbating fire, potential changes in night-time conditions-and their associated role as fire reducers-are less understood. Here we show that night-time fire intensity has increased, which is linked to hotter and drier nights. Our findings are based on global satellite observations of daytime and night-time fire detections and corresponding hourly climate data, from which we determine landcover-specific thresholds of VPD (VPD ), below which fire detections are very rare (less than 95 per cent modelled chance). Globally, daily minimum VPD increased by 25 per cent from 1979 to 2020. Across burnable lands, the annual number of flammable night-time hours-when VPD exceeds VPD -increased by 110 hours, allowing five additional nights when flammability never ceases. Across nearly one-fifth of burnable lands, flammable nights increased by at least one week across this period. Globally, night fires have become 7.2 per cent more intense from 2003 to 2020, measured via a satellite record. These results reinforce the lack of night-time relief that wildfire suppression teams have experienced in recent years. We expect that continued night-time warming owing to anthropogenic climate change will promote more intense, longer-lasting and larger fires. Night-time provides a critical window for slowing or extinguishing fires owing to the lower temperature and the lower vapour pressure deficit (VPD). However, fire danger is most often assessed based on daytime conditions 1 , 2 , capturing what promotes fire spread rather than what impedes fire. Although it is well appreciated that changing daytime weather conditions are exacerbating fire, potential changes in night-time conditions—and their associated role as fire reducers—are less understood. Here we show that night-time fire intensity has increased, which is linked to hotter and drier nights. Our findings are based on global satellite observations of daytime and night-time fire detections and corresponding hourly climate data, from which we determine landcover-specific thresholds of VPD (VPD t ), below which fire detections are very rare (less than 95 per cent modelled chance). Globally, daily minimum VPD increased by 25 per cent from 1979 to 2020. Across burnable lands, the annual number of flammable night-time hours—when VPD exceeds VPD t —increased by 110 hours, allowing five additional nights when flammability never ceases. Across nearly one-fifth of burnable lands, flammable nights increased by at least one week across this period. Globally, night fires have become 7.2 per cent more intense from 2003 to 2020, measured via a satellite record. These results reinforce the lack of night-time relief that wildfire suppression teams have experienced in recent years. We expect that continued night-time warming owing to anthropogenic climate change will promote more intense, longer-lasting and larger fires. An analysis of satellite observations and climate data shows that night-time fire intensity has increased over the past two decades owing to hotter and drier nights under anthropogenic climate change.
Author	Mahood, Adam L. McGlinchy, Joseph Balch, Jennifer K. Williams, A. Park Abatzoglou, John T. Koontz, Michael J. Joseph, Maxwell B. Cattau, Megan E.
Author_xml	– sequence: 1 givenname: Jennifer K. orcidid: 0000-0002-3983-7970 surname: Balch fullname: Balch, Jennifer K. email: jennifer.balch@colorado.edu organization: Earth Lab, CIRES, University of Colorado Boulder, Department of Geography, University of Colorado Boulder – sequence: 2 givenname: John T. surname: Abatzoglou fullname: Abatzoglou, John T. email: jabatzoglou@ucmerced.edu organization: Management of Complex Systems Department, University of California-Merced – sequence: 3 givenname: Maxwell B. orcidid: 0000-0002-7745-9990 surname: Joseph fullname: Joseph, Maxwell B. organization: Earth Lab, CIRES, University of Colorado Boulder, NCX – sequence: 4 givenname: Michael J. orcidid: 0000-0002-8276-210X surname: Koontz fullname: Koontz, Michael J. organization: Earth Lab, CIRES, University of Colorado Boulder – sequence: 5 givenname: Adam L. orcidid: 0000-0003-3791-9654 surname: Mahood fullname: Mahood, Adam L. organization: Earth Lab, CIRES, University of Colorado Boulder, Department of Geography, University of Colorado Boulder – sequence: 6 givenname: Joseph surname: McGlinchy fullname: McGlinchy, Joseph organization: Earth Lab, CIRES, University of Colorado Boulder, Hydrosat Inc – sequence: 7 givenname: Megan E. orcidid: 0000-0003-2164-3809 surname: Cattau fullname: Cattau, Megan E. organization: Human–Environment Systems, College of Innovation and Design, Boise State University – sequence: 8 givenname: A. Park surname: Williams fullname: Williams, A. Park email: williams@geog.ucla.edu organization: Department of Geography, University of California, Los Angeles, Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory of Columbia University
BackLink	https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/35173342$$D View this record in MEDLINE/PubMed
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ContentType	Journal Article
Copyright	The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature Limited 2022 2022. The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature Limited. Copyright Nature Publishing Group Feb 17, 2022
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Snippet	Night-time provides a critical window for slowing or extinguishing fires owing to the lower temperature and the lower vapour pressure deficit (VPD). However,...
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SubjectTerms	704/106/694/2739 704/172/4081 Anthropogenic climate changes Anthropogenic factors Climate change Climatic data Darkness Daytime Fire danger Fire hazards Flammability Forest & brush fires Global Warming - statistics & numerical data Humanities and Social Sciences Humidity Low temperature multidisciplinary Night Satellite observation Satellites Science Science (multidisciplinary) Seasons Trends Vapor pressure Weather Weather conditions Wildfires Wildfires - prevention & control Wildfires - statistics & numerical data
Title	Warming weakens the night-time barrier to global fire
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