Ageing threatens sustainability of smallholder farming in China

Rapid demographic ageing substantially affects socioeconomic development 1 – 4 and presents considerable challenges for food security and agricultural sustainability 5 – 8 , which have so far not been well understood. Here, by using data from more than 15,000 rural households with crops but no lives...

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Vydané v:	Nature (London) Ročník 616; číslo 7955; s. 96 - 103
Hlavní autori:	Ren, Chenchen, Zhou, Xinyue, Wang, Chen, Guo, Yaolin, Diao, Yu, Shen, Sisi, Reis, Stefan, Li, Wanyue, Xu, Jianming, Gu, Baojing
Médium:	Journal Article
Jazyk:	English
Vydavateľské údaje:	London Nature Publishing Group UK 06.04.2023 Nature Publishing Group
Predmet:	704/844/685 706/1143 Age composition Age Distribution Age Factors Age groups Aging Agricultural cooperatives Agricultural land Agricultural management Agricultural production Agriculture - economics Agriculture - education Agriculture - methods Agriculture - organization & administration Agrochemicals China Crops Efficiency Emissions Environment models Environmental Pollutants Farmers Farmers - education Farmers - statistics & numerical data Farming Farms Farms - economics Farms - organization & administration Farms - statistics & numerical data Farms - trends Fertilizers Fertilizers - analysis Food security Food Security - economics Food Security - methods Households Humanities and Social Sciences Humans Income Labor productivity Livestock Machinery Manures multidisciplinary Population Productivity Rural areas Rural Population - statistics & numerical data Rural Population - trends Rural populations Science Science (multidisciplinary) Small farms Society Sustainable agriculture Sustainable development Sustainable Development - economics Sustainable Development - trends Technology adoption China
ISSN:	0028-0836, 1476-4687, 1476-4687
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Abstract	Rapid demographic ageing substantially affects socioeconomic development 1 – 4 and presents considerable challenges for food security and agricultural sustainability 5 – 8 , which have so far not been well understood. Here, by using data from more than 15,000 rural households with crops but no livestock across China, we show that rural population ageing reduced farm size by 4% through transferring cropland ownership and land abandonment (approximately 4 million hectares) in 2019, taking the population age structure in 1990 as a benchmark. These changes led to a reduction of agricultural inputs, including chemical fertilizers, manure and machinery, which decreased agricultural output and labour productivity by 5% and 4%, respectively, further lowering farmers’ income by 15%. Meanwhile, fertilizer loss increased by 3%, resulting in higher pollutant emissions to the environment. In new farming models, such as cooperative farming, farms tend to be larger and operated by younger farmers, who have a higher average education level, hence improving agricultural management. By encouraging the transition to new farming models, the negative consequences of ageing can be reversed. Agricultural input, farm size and farmer’s income would grow by approximately 14%, 20% and 26%, respectively, and fertilizer loss would reduce by 4% in 2100 compared with that in 2020. This suggests that management of rural ageing will contribute to a comprehensive transformation of smallholder farming to sustainable agriculture in China. Rural population ageing reduces the sustainability of smallholder farming in China, but the transition to a new farming model could reverse the negative effects of rural population ageing.
AbstractList	Rapid demographic ageing substantially affects socioeconomic development 1 – 4 and presents considerable challenges for food security and agricultural sustainability 5 – 8 , which have so far not been well understood. Here, by using data from more than 15,000 rural households with crops but no livestock across China, we show that rural population ageing reduced farm size by 4% through transferring cropland ownership and land abandonment (approximately 4 million hectares) in 2019, taking the population age structure in 1990 as a benchmark. These changes led to a reduction of agricultural inputs, including chemical fertilizers, manure and machinery, which decreased agricultural output and labour productivity by 5% and 4%, respectively, further lowering farmers’ income by 15%. Meanwhile, fertilizer loss increased by 3%, resulting in higher pollutant emissions to the environment. In new farming models, such as cooperative farming, farms tend to be larger and operated by younger farmers, who have a higher average education level, hence improving agricultural management. By encouraging the transition to new farming models, the negative consequences of ageing can be reversed. Agricultural input, farm size and farmer’s income would grow by approximately 14%, 20% and 26%, respectively, and fertilizer loss would reduce by 4% in 2100 compared with that in 2020. This suggests that management of rural ageing will contribute to a comprehensive transformation of smallholder farming to sustainable agriculture in China. Rural population ageing reduces the sustainability of smallholder farming in China, but the transition to a new farming model could reverse the negative effects of rural population ageing. Rapid demographic ageing substantially affects socioeconomic development1-4 and presents considerable challenges for food security and agricultural sustainability5-8, which have so far not been well understood. Here, by using data from more than 15,000 rural households with crops but no livestock across China, we show that rural population ageing reduced farm size by 4% through transferring cropland ownership and land abandonment (approximately 4 million hectares) in 2019, taking the population age structure in 1990 as a benchmark. These changes led to a reduction of agricultural inputs, including chemical fertilizers, manure and machinery, which decreased agricultural output and labour productivity by 5% and 4%, respectively, further lowering farmers' income by 15%. Meanwhile, fertilizer loss increased by 3%, resulting in higher pollutant emissions to the environment. In new farming models, such as cooperative farming, farms tend to be larger and operated by younger farmers, who have a higher average education level, hence improving agricultural management. By encouraging the transition to new farming models, the negative consequences of ageing can be reversed. Agricultural input, farm size and farmer's income would grow by approximately 14%, 20% and 26%, respectively, and fertilizer loss would reduce by 4% in 2100 compared with that in 2020. This suggests that management of rural ageing will contribute to a comprehensive transformation of smallholder farming to sustainable agriculture in China.Rapid demographic ageing substantially affects socioeconomic development1-4 and presents considerable challenges for food security and agricultural sustainability5-8, which have so far not been well understood. Here, by using data from more than 15,000 rural households with crops but no livestock across China, we show that rural population ageing reduced farm size by 4% through transferring cropland ownership and land abandonment (approximately 4 million hectares) in 2019, taking the population age structure in 1990 as a benchmark. These changes led to a reduction of agricultural inputs, including chemical fertilizers, manure and machinery, which decreased agricultural output and labour productivity by 5% and 4%, respectively, further lowering farmers' income by 15%. Meanwhile, fertilizer loss increased by 3%, resulting in higher pollutant emissions to the environment. In new farming models, such as cooperative farming, farms tend to be larger and operated by younger farmers, who have a higher average education level, hence improving agricultural management. By encouraging the transition to new farming models, the negative consequences of ageing can be reversed. Agricultural input, farm size and farmer's income would grow by approximately 14%, 20% and 26%, respectively, and fertilizer loss would reduce by 4% in 2100 compared with that in 2020. This suggests that management of rural ageing will contribute to a comprehensive transformation of smallholder farming to sustainable agriculture in China. Rapid demographic ageing substantially affects socioeconomic development and presents considerable challenges for food security and agricultural sustainability , which have so far not been well understood. Here, by using data from more than 15,000 rural households with crops but no livestock across China, we show that rural population ageing reduced farm size by 4% through transferring cropland ownership and land abandonment (approximately 4 million hectares) in 2019, taking the population age structure in 1990 as a benchmark. These changes led to a reduction of agricultural inputs, including chemical fertilizers, manure and machinery, which decreased agricultural output and labour productivity by 5% and 4%, respectively, further lowering farmers' income by 15%. Meanwhile, fertilizer loss increased by 3%, resulting in higher pollutant emissions to the environment. In new farming models, such as cooperative farming, farms tend to be larger and operated by younger farmers, who have a higher average education level, hence improving agricultural management. By encouraging the transition to new farming models, the negative consequences of ageing can be reversed. Agricultural input, farm size and farmer's income would grow by approximately 14%, 20% and 26%, respectively, and fertilizer loss would reduce by 4% in 2100 compared with that in 2020. This suggests that management of rural ageing will contribute to a comprehensive transformation of smallholder farming to sustainable agriculture in China. Rapid demographic ageing substantially affects socioeconomic development1-4 and presents considerable challenges for food security and agricultural sustainability5-8, which have so far not been well understood. Here, by using data from more than 15,000 rural households with crops but no livestock across China, we show that rural population ageing reduced farm size by 4% through transferring cropland ownership and land abandonment (approximately 4 million hectares) in 2019, taking the population age structure in 1990 as a benchmark. These changes led to a reduction of agricultural inputs, including chemical fertilizers, manure and machinery, which decreased agricultural output and labour productivity by 5% and 4%, respectively, further lowering farmers' income by 15%. Meanwhile, fertilizer loss increased by 3%, resulting in higher pollutant emissions to the environment. In new farming models, such as cooperative farming, farms tend to be larger and operated by younger farmers, who have a higher average education level, hence improving agricultural management. By encouraging the transition to new farming models, the negative consequences of ageing can be reversed. Agricultural input, farm size and farmer's income would grow by approximately 14%, 20% and 26%, respectively, and fertilizer loss would reduce by 4% in 2100 compared with that in 2020. This suggests that management of rural ageing will contribute to a comprehensive transformation of smallholder farming to sustainable agriculture in China.
Author	Guo, Yaolin Gu, Baojing Xu, Jianming Ren, Chenchen Diao, Yu Zhou, Xinyue Wang, Chen Li, Wanyue Shen, Sisi Reis, Stefan
Author_xml	– sequence: 1 givenname: Chenchen surname: Ren fullname: Ren, Chenchen organization: College of Environmental and Resource Sciences, Zhejiang University, Department of Land Management, Zhejiang University, Policy Simulation Laboratory, Zhejiang University – sequence: 2 givenname: Xinyue surname: Zhou fullname: Zhou, Xinyue organization: School of Management, Zhejiang University – sequence: 3 givenname: Chen surname: Wang fullname: Wang, Chen organization: College of Environmental and Resource Sciences, Zhejiang University, Policy Simulation Laboratory, Zhejiang University – sequence: 4 givenname: Yaolin surname: Guo fullname: Guo, Yaolin organization: College of Environmental and Resource Sciences, Zhejiang University – sequence: 5 givenname: Yu surname: Diao fullname: Diao, Yu organization: College of Environmental and Resource Sciences, Zhejiang University – sequence: 6 givenname: Sisi surname: Shen fullname: Shen, Sisi organization: College of Environmental and Resource Sciences, Zhejiang University – sequence: 7 givenname: Stefan orcidid: 0000-0003-2428-8320 surname: Reis fullname: Reis, Stefan organization: UK Centre for Ecology & Hydrology, University of Exeter Medical School, School of Chemistry, University of Edinburgh – sequence: 8 givenname: Wanyue surname: Li fullname: Li, Wanyue organization: School of Management, Zhejiang University – sequence: 9 givenname: Jianming orcidid: 0000-0002-2954-9764 surname: Xu fullname: Xu, Jianming organization: College of Environmental and Resource Sciences, Zhejiang University – sequence: 10 givenname: Baojing orcidid: 0000-0003-3986-3519 surname: Gu fullname: Gu, Baojing email: bjgu@zju.edu.cn organization: College of Environmental and Resource Sciences, Zhejiang University, Zhejiang Provincial Key Laboratory of Agricultural Resources and Environment, Zhejiang University
BackLink	https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/36813965$$D View this record in MEDLINE/PubMed
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Copyright	The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature Limited 2023. Springer Nature or its licensor (e.g. a society or other partner) holds exclusive rights to this article under a publishing agreement with the author(s) or other rightsholder(s); author self-archiving of the accepted manuscript version of this article is solely governed by the terms of such publishing agreement and applicable law. 2023. The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature Limited. Copyright Nature Publishing Group Apr 6, 2023
Copyright_xml	– notice: The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature Limited 2023. Springer Nature or its licensor (e.g. a society or other partner) holds exclusive rights to this article under a publishing agreement with the author(s) or other rightsholder(s); author self-archiving of the accepted manuscript version of this article is solely governed by the terms of such publishing agreement and applicable law. – notice: 2023. The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature Limited. – notice: Copyright Nature Publishing Group Apr 6, 2023
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Title	Ageing threatens sustainability of smallholder farming in China
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