Days of Action or Restraint? How the Islamic Calendar Impacts Violence

Does the religious calendar promote or suppress political violence in Islamic societies? This study challenges the presumption that the predominant impact of the Islamic calendar is to increase violence, particularly during Ramadan. This study develops a new theory that predicts systematic suppressi...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:The American political science review Vol. 111; no. 3; pp. 439 - 459
Main Authors: REESE, MICHAEL J., RUBY, KEVEN G., PAPE, ROBERT A.
Format: Journal Article
Language:English
Published: New York, USA Cambridge University Press 01.08.2017
Cambridge University Press for the American Political Science Association
Subjects:
Calendars
Child soldiers
Coding
Counterterrorism
Datasets
Evidence
Holidays
Holidays & special occasions
Insurgency
Islam
Militancy
Muslim holidays
Political science
Political violence
Politics
Presumption
Qualitative research
Ramadan
Religion
Religious holidays
Research Design
Social Theories
Society
Statistical Analysis
Theory
Violence
Middle East
Afghanistan
Pakistan
Iraq
United States > US
ISSN:0003-0554, 1537-5943
Online Access:Get full text
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Summary:Does the religious calendar promote or suppress political violence in Islamic societies? This study challenges the presumption that the predominant impact of the Islamic calendar is to increase violence, particularly during Ramadan. This study develops a new theory that predicts systematic suppression of violence on important Islamic holidays, those marked by public days off for dedicated celebration. We argue that militant actors anticipate societal disapproval of violence, predictably inducing restraint on these days. We assess our theory using innovative parallel analysis of multiple datasets and qualitative evidence from Islamic insurgencies in Iraq, Afghanistan, and Pakistan from 2004 to 2014. Consistent with our theory, we find that important Islamic holidays witness systematic declines in violence—as much as 41%—and provide evidence that anticipation of societal disapproval is producing these results. Significantly, we find no systematic evidence for surges of violence associated with any Islamic holiday, including Ramadan.
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ISSN:0003-0554
1537-5943
DOI:10.1017/S0003055417000193