A Multimodal Encoder–Decoder Neural Network for Forecasting Solar Wind Speed at L1

The solar wind, accelerated within the solar corona, sculpts the heliosphere and continuously interacts with planetary atmospheres. On Earth, high-speed solar wind streams may lead to severe disruption of satellite operations and power grids. Accurate and reliable forecasting of the ambient solar wi...

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Vydáno v:The Astrophysical journal. Supplement series Ročník 280; číslo 1; s. 40 - 53
Hlavní autoři: Dhuri, Dattaraj B., Hanasoge, Shravan M., Joon, Harsh, SM, Gopika, Das, Dipankar, Kaul, Bharat
Médium: Journal Article
Jazyk:angličtina
Vydáno: Saskatoon The American Astronomical Society 01.09.2025
IOP Publishing
Témata:
Charged particles
Coders
Corona
Coronal observations
Daily forecasts
Forecasting
Heliosphere
Neural networks
Planetary atmospheres
Solar corona
Solar observations
Solar wind
Solar wind speed
Solar-terrestrial interactions
Space weather
Wind forecasting
Wind observation
Wind speed
ISSN:0067-0049, 1538-4365
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Shrnutí:The solar wind, accelerated within the solar corona, sculpts the heliosphere and continuously interacts with planetary atmospheres. On Earth, high-speed solar wind streams may lead to severe disruption of satellite operations and power grids. Accurate and reliable forecasting of the ambient solar wind speed is therefore highly desirable. This work presents an encoder–decoder neural network framework for simultaneously forecasting the daily averaged solar wind speed for the subsequent 4 days. The encoder–decoder framework is trained with the two different modes of solar observations. The history of solar wind observations from prior solar rotations and EUV coronal observations up to 4 days prior to the current time forms the input to two different encoders. The decoder is designed to output the daily averaged solar wind speed from 4 days prior to the current time to 4 days into the future. Our model outputs the solar wind speed with rms errors (RMSEs) of 55, 58, 58, and 58 km s −1 and Pearson correlations of 0.78, 0.66, 0.64, and 0.63 for 1 to 4 days in advance, respectively. While the model is trained and validated on observations between 2010 and 2018, we demonstrate its robustness via application on unseen test data between 2019 and 2023, yielding RMSEs of 53 km s −1 and Pearson correlations of 0.55 for a 4 day advance prediction. Our encoder–decoder model thus produces much improved RMSE values compared to previous works and paves the way for developing comprehensive multimodal deep learning models for operational solar wind forecasting.
Bibliografie:AAS63000
The Sun and the Heliosphere
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SourceType-Scholarly Journals-1
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ISSN:0067-0049
1538-4365
DOI:10.3847/1538-4365/adf436