Wildfire and forest treatments mitigate—but cannot forestall—climate-driven changes in streamflow regimes in a western US mountain landscape
Warming temperatures and increasingly variable precipitation patterns are reducing winter snowpack and critical late-season streamflows. Here, we used two models (LANDIS-II and DHSVM) in linked simulations to evaluate the effects of wildfire and forest management scenarios on future snowpack and str...
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| Published in: | Environmental research letters Vol. 20; no. 8; pp. 84039 - 84052 |
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| Main Authors: | , , , , , , |
| Format: | Journal Article |
| Language: | English |
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01.08.2025
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| ISSN: | 1748-9326, 1748-9326 |
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| Abstract | Warming temperatures and increasingly variable precipitation patterns are reducing winter snowpack and critical late-season streamflows. Here, we used two models (LANDIS-II and DHSVM) in linked simulations to evaluate the effects of wildfire and forest management scenarios on future snowpack and streamflow dynamics. We characterized the biophysical attributes of the areas with the greatest potential for treatments to improve hydrologic functioning and we examined projected trends in flow regimes over the 21st century. We found that, despite a projected increase in total annual flows, there was a steep decline in snowpack and late-season flows. Wildfire was an important factor influencing streamflow and snowpack dynamics, with increasing burned area partially offsetting climate-driven declines in snowpack and spring flows. Forest thinning treatments contributed modest increases to annual flows, although effects were overshadowed by the influences of climate and wildfire. Warming winter temperatures extinguished snowmelt-driven flows in low- and mid-elevation watersheds, causing a transition from spring snowmelt- to autumn rain-dominated streamflow regimes. Our results complement prior empirical studies showing that forest treatments can improve snowpack retention and annual streamflow, and they emphasize the importance of wildfire as a primary factor governing landscape hydrology. We found that neither land management practices nor wildfire could completely compensate for the top–down controls of future climate on landscape hydrology. Declines in snowpack retention and a regime shift in the timing of peak flows will have dramatic consequences for forest health, human water resources, and Pacific salmon populations. |
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| AbstractList | Warming temperatures and increasingly variable precipitation patterns are reducing winter snowpack and critical late-season streamflows. Here, we used two models (LANDIS-II and DHSVM) in linked simulations to evaluate the effects of wildfire and forest management scenarios on future snowpack and streamflow dynamics. We characterized the biophysical attributes of the areas with the greatest potential for treatments to improve hydrologic functioning and we examined projected trends in flow regimes over the 21st century. We found that, despite a projected increase in total annual flows, there was a steep decline in snowpack and late-season flows. Wildfire was an important factor influencing streamflow and snowpack dynamics, with increasing burned area partially offsetting climate-driven declines in snowpack and spring flows. Forest thinning treatments contributed modest increases to annual flows, although effects were overshadowed by the influences of climate and wildfire. Warming winter temperatures extinguished snowmelt-driven flows in low- and mid-elevation watersheds, causing a transition from spring snowmelt- to autumn rain-dominated streamflow regimes. Our results complement prior empirical studies showing that forest treatments can improve snowpack retention and annual streamflow, and they emphasize the importance of wildfire as a primary factor governing landscape hydrology. We found that neither land management practices nor wildfire could completely compensate for the top–down controls of future climate on landscape hydrology. Declines in snowpack retention and a regime shift in the timing of peak flows will have dramatic consequences for forest health, human water resources, and Pacific salmon populations. |
| Author | Furniss, Tucker J Hessburg, Paul F Wigmosta, Mark Brion Salter, R Churchill, Derek Duan, Zhuoran Povak, Nicholas |
| Author_xml | – sequence: 1 givenname: Tucker J orcidid: 0000-0002-4376-1737 surname: Furniss fullname: Furniss, Tucker J organization: University of Wyoming Department of Ecosystem Science and Management, Laramie, WY, United States of America – sequence: 2 givenname: Paul F orcidid: 0000-0002-0330-7230 surname: Hessburg fullname: Hessburg, Paul F organization: University of Washington School of Environmental and Forest Sciences, Seattle, WA, United States of America – sequence: 3 givenname: Derek orcidid: 0000-0002-3562-8194 surname: Churchill fullname: Churchill, Derek organization: Washington Department of Natural Resources , Olympia, WA, United States of America – sequence: 4 givenname: Mark orcidid: 0000-0002-2918-8284 surname: Wigmosta fullname: Wigmosta, Mark organization: University of Washington School of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Seattle, WA, United States of America – sequence: 5 givenname: Nicholas orcidid: 0000-0003-1220-7095 surname: Povak fullname: Povak, Nicholas organization: Pacific Southwest Research Station USDA Forest Service, Placerville, CA, United States of America – sequence: 6 givenname: Zhuoran orcidid: 0000-0002-0910-4610 surname: Duan fullname: Duan, Zhuoran organization: Pacific Northwest National Laboratory , Richland, WA, United States of America – sequence: 7 givenname: R orcidid: 0000-0002-9049-4395 surname: Brion Salter fullname: Brion Salter, R organization: Pacific Northwest Research Station USDA Forest Service, Wenatchee, WA, United States of America |
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| SubjectTerms | Climate Climate change ecological modeling Fish populations Forest management Forests Hydrology hydrology modeling Land management LANDIS-II Pacific salmon Retention Salmon Snowmelt Snowpack Spring Spring (season) Stream discharge Stream flow Water resources wildfire Wildfires Winter |
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| Title | Wildfire and forest treatments mitigate—but cannot forestall—climate-driven changes in streamflow regimes in a western US mountain landscape |
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