Further declines of the Western Capercaillie Tetrao urogallus in Scotland as shown by the 2021-2022 winter survey

The estimated number of Western Capercaillies Tetrao urogallus in Scotland in winter 2021-2022 was 532 with a 95% confidence interval (CI) of 227-810. To produce an updated estimate of the number of Western Capercaillies in Scotland. Line transects were surveyed across the current distribution, samp...

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Published in:	Bird study Vol. 71; no. 1; pp. 17 - 31
Main Authors:	Wilkinson, Nicholas I., Doubleday, Molly, Douse, Andrew, Ford, Andy, Kelly, Leah A., Kortland, Kenny, Titherington, Juli, Wotton, Simon R., Ewing, Steven R.
Format:	Journal Article
Language:	English
Published:	Thetford Taylor & Francis 02.01.2024 British Trust for Ornithology
Subjects:	adults Biological surveys birds Breeding Breeding success confidence interval Confidence intervals Current distribution extinction Males Population characteristics Population statistics Sampling Scotland Sex Sex ratio Species extinction Surveys Survival Tetrao urogallus Winter United Kingdom > UK Scotland
ISSN:	0006-3657, 1944-6705, 1944-6705
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Abstract	The estimated number of Western Capercaillies Tetrao urogallus in Scotland in winter 2021-2022 was 532 with a 95% confidence interval (CI) of 227-810. To produce an updated estimate of the number of Western Capercaillies in Scotland. Line transects were surveyed across the current distribution, sampling in two separate strata: a primary stratum in the core range and a secondary stratum in peripheral areas. Multi-covariate distance sampling was used to fit alternative detection functions to the sighting data, deriving national, regional and sex-specific estimates of abundance. The survey recorded 115 Western Capercaillies in 104 separate encounters across 635 transects, yielding a population estimate of 532 individuals (95% CI: 227-810). This estimate was 52% lower than from the population survey in 2015-2016 (1114 individuals, 95% CI: 805-1505). Declines were greater for females than for males, leading to an adult sex ratio in favour of males. Most of the population (80%) continues to be concentrated in the region of Badenoch and Strathspey. With the population at its lowest level since the start of national monitoring in 1992-1994, the likelihood of extinction in Scotland for a second time seems inevitable without a step-change in conservation action. Measures to improve breeding success and survival are needed and should be targeted in the core of the range to maximize impact on the population.
AbstractList	Capsule:The estimated number of Western Capercaillies Tetrao urogallus in Scotland in winter 2021–2022 was 532 with a 95% confidence interval (CI) of 227–810.Aim:To produce an updated estimate of the number of Western Capercaillies in Scotland.Methods:Line transects were surveyed across the current distribution, sampling in two separate strata: a primary stratum in the core range and a secondary stratum in peripheral areas. Multi-covariate distance sampling was used to fit alternative detection functions to the sighting data, deriving national, regional and sex-specific estimates of abundance.Results:The survey recorded 115 Western Capercaillies in 104 separate encounters across 635 transects, yielding a population estimate of 532 individuals (95% CI: 227–810). This estimate was 52% lower than from the population survey in 2015–2016 (1114 individuals, 95% CI: 805–1505). Declines were greater for females than for males, leading to an adult sex ratio in favour of males. Most of the population (80%) continues to be concentrated in the region of Badenoch and Strathspey.Conclusion:With the population at its lowest level since the start of national monitoring in 1992–1994, the likelihood of extinction in Scotland for a second time seems inevitable without a step-change in conservation action. Measures to improve breeding success and survival are needed and should be targeted in the core of the range to maximize impact on the population. The estimated number of Western Capercaillies Tetrao urogallus in Scotland in winter 2021-2022 was 532 with a 95% confidence interval (CI) of 227-810. To produce an updated estimate of the number of Western Capercaillies in Scotland. Line transects were surveyed across the current distribution, sampling in two separate strata: a primary stratum in the core range and a secondary stratum in peripheral areas. Multi-covariate distance sampling was used to fit alternative detection functions to the sighting data, deriving national, regional and sex-specific estimates of abundance. The survey recorded 115 Western Capercaillies in 104 separate encounters across 635 transects, yielding a population estimate of 532 individuals (95% CI: 227-810). This estimate was 52% lower than from the population survey in 2015-2016 (1114 individuals, 95% CI: 805-1505). Declines were greater for females than for males, leading to an adult sex ratio in favour of males. Most of the population (80%) continues to be concentrated in the region of Badenoch and Strathspey. With the population at its lowest level since the start of national monitoring in 1992-1994, the likelihood of extinction in Scotland for a second time seems inevitable without a step-change in conservation action. Measures to improve breeding success and survival are needed and should be targeted in the core of the range to maximize impact on the population. The estimated number of Western Capercaillies Tetrao urogallus in Scotland in winter 2021–2022 was 532 with a 95% confidence interval (CI) of 227–810. To produce an updated estimate of the number of Western Capercaillies in Scotland. Line transects were surveyed across the current distribution, sampling in two separate strata: a primary stratum in the core range and a secondary stratum in peripheral areas. Multi-covariate distance sampling was used to fit alternative detection functions to the sighting data, deriving national, regional and sex-specific estimates of abundance. The survey recorded 115 Western Capercaillies in 104 separate encounters across 635 transects, yielding a population estimate of 532 individuals (95% CI: 227–810). This estimate was 52% lower than from the population survey in 2015–2016 (1114 individuals, 95% CI: 805–1505). Declines were greater for females than for males, leading to an adult sex ratio in favour of males. Most of the population (80%) continues to be concentrated in the region of Badenoch and Strathspey. With the population at its lowest level since the start of national monitoring in 1992–1994, the likelihood of extinction in Scotland for a second time seems inevitable without a step-change in conservation action. Measures to improve breeding success and survival are needed and should be targeted in the core of the range to maximize impact on the population.
Author	Doubleday, Molly Douse, Andrew Titherington, Juli Ewing, Steven R. Wotton, Simon R. Kelly, Leah A. Ford, Andy Kortland, Kenny Wilkinson, Nicholas I.
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Snippet	The estimated number of Western Capercaillies Tetrao urogallus in Scotland in winter 2021-2022 was 532 with a 95% confidence interval (CI) of 227-810. To... Capsule:The estimated number of Western Capercaillies Tetrao urogallus in Scotland in winter 2021–2022 was 532 with a 95% confidence interval (CI) of... The estimated number of Western Capercaillies Tetrao urogallus in Scotland in winter 2021–2022 was 532 with a 95% confidence interval (CI) of 227–810. To...
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SubjectTerms	adults Biological surveys birds Breeding Breeding success confidence interval Confidence intervals Current distribution extinction Males Population characteristics Population statistics Sampling Scotland Sex Sex ratio Species extinction Surveys Survival Tetrao urogallus Winter
Title	Further declines of the Western Capercaillie Tetrao urogallus in Scotland as shown by the 2021-2022 winter survey
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