Projection of Photovoltaic System Adoption and Its Impact on a Distributed Power Grid Using Fuzzy Logic

The increasing adoption of photovoltaic systems presents new challenges for energy planning and grid stability. This study proposes a fuzzy logic-based methodology to identify potential PV adopters by integrating variables such as energy consumption, electricity tariff, solar radiation, and socioeco...

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Vydáno v:	Sustainability Ročník 17; číslo 12; s. 5235
Hlavní autoři:	López-Eugenio, Kevin, Torres-Bermeo, Pedro, Del-Valle-Soto, Carolina, Varela-Aldás, José
Médium:	Journal Article
Jazyk:	angličtina
Vydáno:	Basel MDPI AG 01.06.2025
Témata:	Alternative energy sources Behavior Consumers Decision making Energy consumption Energy shortages Fuzzy algorithms Fuzzy logic Fuzzy systems Long term planning Machine learning Methods Payback periods Renewable resources Socioeconomic factors Sustainable development Tariffs Ecuador
ISSN:	2071-1050, 2071-1050
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Abstract	The increasing adoption of photovoltaic systems presents new challenges for energy planning and grid stability. This study proposes a fuzzy logic-based methodology to identify potential PV adopters by integrating variables such as energy consumption, electricity tariff, solar radiation, and socioeconomic level. The approach was applied to a real distribution grid and compared against a previously presented method that selects users based solely on high energy consumption. The fuzzy logic model demonstrated superior performance by identifying 77.03 [%] of real adopters, outperforming the previous selection strategy. Additionally, the study evaluates the technical impact of PV integration on the distribution grid through power flow simulations, analysing energy losses, voltage stability, and asset loadability. Findings highlight that while PV systems reduce energy losses, they can also introduce voltage regulation challenges under high penetration. The proposed methodology serves as a decision-support tool for utilities and regulators, enhancing the accuracy of adoption projections and informing infrastructure planning. Its flexibility and rule-based nature make it adaptable to different regulatory and technical environments, allowing it to be replicated globally for sustainable energy transition initiatives.
AbstractList	The increasing adoption of photovoltaic systems presents new challenges for energy planning and grid stability. This study proposes a fuzzy logic-based methodology to identify potential PV adopters by integrating variables such as energy consumption, electricity tariff, solar radiation, and socioeconomic level. The approach was applied to a real distribution grid and compared against a previously presented method that selects users based solely on high energy consumption. The fuzzy logic model demonstrated superior performance by identifying 77.03 [%] of real adopters, outperforming the previous selection strategy. Additionally, the study evaluates the technical impact of PV integration on the distribution grid through power flow simulations, analysing energy losses, voltage stability, and asset loadability. Findings highlight that while PV systems reduce energy losses, they can also introduce voltage regulation challenges under high penetration. The proposed methodology serves as a decision-support tool for utilities and regulators, enhancing the accuracy of adoption projections and informing infrastructure planning. Its flexibility and rule-based nature make it adaptable to different regulatory and technical environments, allowing it to be replicated globally for sustainable energy transition initiatives.
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Author	Del-Valle-Soto, Carolina Torres-Bermeo, Pedro Varela-Aldás, José López-Eugenio, Kevin
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SubjectTerms	Alternative energy sources Behavior Consumers Decision making Energy consumption Energy shortages Fuzzy algorithms Fuzzy logic Fuzzy systems Long term planning Machine learning Methods Payback periods Renewable resources Socioeconomic factors Sustainable development Tariffs
Title	Projection of Photovoltaic System Adoption and Its Impact on a Distributed Power Grid Using Fuzzy Logic
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